巴西前总统卢拉将在狱中参加总统大选

It would be hard to overstate the prominence of former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil. The founder of the left-wing Workers’ Party, this former union leader – who goes by “Lula” – has dominated Brazilian politics for the last 30 years.

长期以来，巴西前总统卢拉一直是最受欢迎的政治家。过去30年来，作为左翼劳工党的领导人，这位前联盟领导人一直在巴西政坛占据主导地位。

Lula was a top contender in the 1989, 1994 and 1998 elections. He won the presidency in 2002 and was re-elected by a landslide in 2006. Leaving office with an 80% approval rating, he helped get his protege Dilma Rousseff elected to succeed him in both 2010 and 2014. Now Lula is a clear favourite for Brazil’s October 2018 presidential election. There’s just one problem: He’s in jail. On July 21, a Brazilian appeals court sentenced the former president to 12 years in prison for corruption – a polarising and controversial verdict Lula supporters see as a politically motivated attempt to derail his campaign.

卢拉曾经是1989年，1994年和1998年总统选举中的最大竞争者。他于2002年获得总统职位，并于2006年连任。在80％的支持率下离职，他曾帮助他的门徒迪尔玛·罗塞夫（巴西历史上第一位女总统）在2010年和2014年竞选成功。现在，卢拉将参加巴西2018年10月总统竞选。只有一个问题：他还在监狱里。7月21日，一名巴西人上诉法院，卢拉因贪腐被判处12年监禁，然而卢拉支持者却一直认为这是一个极具争议的判决，是有人出于政治动机企图破坏他的竞选活动。

In theory, Lula can still run. The Superior Electoral Court has not yet vetoed his candidacy. As Brazilian political scientists, however, we believe Lula’s chances of actually competing in October are slim. With 12 candidates and no front-runner, this is Brazil’s most uNPRedictable election since it transitioned from dictatorship to democracy in the 1980s.

理论上，卢拉仍然是有机会的。高级选举法院尚未否决他的候选人资格。然而，巴西的政治家却预测卢拉在10月能真正参加竞选的机会很渺茫。这次巴西总统选举共有12名候选人，这是自20世纪80年代从专政转向民主以来最难以预测的选举。

What happens next? Brazil has a high number of political parties – 35 at last count. The two-round election counterbalances the centrifugal forces of the country’s multiparty system, allowing parties to regroup around the two leading candidates for the run-off. In the last six presidential elections, the two biggest parties – Lula’s Workers’ Party and the conservative Social Democratic Party of Brazil – have ultimately faced off.

最终结果怎样？着实难以预测。巴西的政党数量很多，最新的统计数字是35。两轮选举能够平衡国家多党制的离心力，使各方能够围绕着两位领先的候选人重新投票。在最近的六次总统选举中，巴西最大的两个政党—卢拉劳工党和保守的巴西社会民主党最终走向了对立。

With October’s election approaching quickly, the Workers’ Party faces a serious dilemma. Party leaders could continue to back Lula’s candidacy as long as the electoral court allows it. If he is ultimately disqualified, they could then ask his base to shift their support to a replacement candidate. Polls show that two out of three Lula supporters would vote for whoever he endorses. But if Lula is disqualified late in the campaign, Workers’ Party voters would have little time to get to know whomever is tapped to replace him.

随着十月大选的临近，工人党将面临严重的困境。只要选举法院允许，党派领导人可以继续支持卢拉的候选资格。如果卢拉最终不幸失去了资格，党派领导人必须将他们的支持转移到替补候选人身上。民意调查显示，三名卢拉支持者中有两人会投赞成票。但是，如果卢拉在竞选活动后期被取消资格，工人党选民可能没有足够时间找到合适的替补候选人。

Alternatively, the party could decide that Lula’s candidacy is a lost cause and ask the former president to endorse another candidate now. We believe that is improbable, though, since Workers’ Party leaders would be leery of showing their base a sign of weakness. The strongest candidate with any chance of appealing to Lula voters is Ciro Gomes, of the centrist Democratic Labor Party. But Gomes, a maverick, seems determined to distance himself from the Workers’ Party. This is a Brazil’s uNPRedictable race.

或者，党派领导人决定卢拉失去候选资格，并要求前总统现在批准另一位候选人。 不过，我们认为这是不可能的，因为工人党领导人不愿意这么做。最有可能吸引卢拉选民的最强候选人是中间派民主工党的西罗戈梅斯。但是，特立独行的戈麦斯似乎决心远离工人党。这真是一场难以预测的竞选。