NPR News:俄罗斯称乌克兰企图恐袭克里米亚 乌军队进入战备状态

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Ukraine of planning a terror attack in Crimea. Remember, this is territory that Russia seized from Ukraine. Putin claims two Russian servicemen were killed in clashes there this week. Now, Ukrainian leaders dismiss this as, quote, "fantasy." But the question is what Russia does next, which we'll talk about with Stephen Sestanovich. He's a senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He's in our studios. Good morning.
STEPHEN SESTANOVICH: Good morning.
INSKEEP: What exactly is Putin claiming was done here?
SESTANOVICH: He said there were two incidents on the border between Crimea and the rest of Ukraine in which half a dozen guys had a shootout with Russian border guards. And they captured five people, saying that they were planning to launch terror attacks inside Ukraine on oil facilities and electrical infrastructure and so forth.
INSKEEP: Sounds ominous, but Petro Poroshenko, the president of Ukraine, says it's all bogus. What evidence, if any, would prove either side correct?
SESTANOVICH: Well, these guys are said to be Ukrainian military intelligence. There's — they apparently are residents — former residents of Crimea, but their affiliation with the Ukrainian military is completely unknown to anybody. And some Russian newspapers themselves — independent — have said these are maybe acting — guys acting on their own.
INSKEEP: So we really don't know anything for sure except that Putin is making this claim. And I guess people then wonder, is Putin setting up some kind of action?
SESTANOVICH: Well, that's what the Ukrainians have worried about. They have said this is a prelude to new confrontation. Poroshenko has put the Ukrainian military on alert. The — some Ukrainian military spokesmen have said, you know, they don't actually see any new military activity. But there have been reports of a Russian buildup and some reason to think that the Russians could be looking for, you know, a new incident to put more pressure on Ukraine.
INSKEEP: The role of Russia has been so much in the news here because of the presidential campaign. Donald Trump, of course, has promoted Putin and said, in many ways, that he wants different relations, better relations with Russia. Can you just remind us of the facts on the ground? Russia has said it's annexed Crimea. They had a referendum there, but it was preceded by troops taking over the place. There is...
SESTANOVICH: Yeah, there was — called the little green men...
INSKEEP: Little green men.
SESTANOVICH: ...Who appeared in Crimea from the Russian military base there and took over the territory...
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京指责乌克兰计划在克里米亚发动恐怖袭击。克里米亚是俄罗斯从乌克兰夺走的领土。普京称本周有两名俄罗斯军人在克里米亚的冲突中死亡。乌克兰领导人否认了这种说法，称那是“幻想”。但是现在的问题是，俄罗斯接下来会做什么，我们将和斯蒂芬·塞斯塔诺维奇来进行讨论。他是外交关系委员会俄罗斯和欧亚研究方面的高级研究员。他现在在我们的演播室。早上好。
斯蒂芬·塞斯塔诺维奇：早上好。
因斯基普：普京具体说了什么？
塞斯塔诺维奇：他说克罗米亚和乌克兰边境发生了两起事件，有6个人同俄罗斯边境部队发生了交火。边境部队逮捕了5个人，称他们计划袭击克里米亚¹境内的石油设施和电气基础设施。
因斯基普：听起来不太吉利，不过乌克兰总统佩特罗·波罗申科表示，这全是假的。双方有证据证明自己的说法吗？
塞斯塔诺维奇：据说这些人是乌克兰军事情报人员。他们原来是克里米亚居民，不过他们同乌克兰军方的关系完全不为人所知。有些俄罗斯报纸称，这些人可能是在独自行动。
因斯基普：除了普京的言论以外，我们没有任何可以确定的事。我想人们想知道普京是否会采取行动？
塞斯塔诺维奇：这也是乌克兰所担心的事情。乌克兰表示，这是新对抗的前奏。波罗申科已下令乌克兰军队进入战备状态。乌克兰军方发言人表示，他们并没有看到新的军事行动。但是有报道称俄罗斯在集结军队，因此有理由认为俄罗斯可能正在寻找能进一步向乌克兰施压的事件。
因斯基普：由于总统大选，俄罗斯一直出现在新闻中。唐纳德·特朗普称赞了普京，他说从很多方面来说，他都希望同俄罗斯建立更好的关系。你能帮我们回顾一下事实吗？俄罗斯称其吞并了克里米亚。克里米亚进行了公投，但是在那之前那里先由军队接管。
塞斯塔诺维奇：对，他们被称为“小绿人”……
因斯基普：小绿人。
塞斯塔诺维奇：这些出现在克里米亚的小绿人来自俄罗斯军事基地，他们接管了这片领土……

INSKEEP: Before them I just want to ask — then there's eastern Ukraine where Russian troops are accused of being involved in an internal conflict. Where does that stand? Where's it going?
SESTANOVICH: Well, there's a standoff there. Two — parts of two territories in eastern Ukraine are still held by Russian separatists with the support of the Russian military. There are reports of, you know, ongoing troop movements and resupply in a regular way, and there are officials who are supported by the Russians who are keeping the Ukrainians out.
INSKEEP: Your best educated guess in a few seconds here. What's on Putin's mind?
SESTANOVICH: Well, Putin has got a couple of things on his mind. He has parliamentary elections coming up next month, and stirring up patriotic fervor is always a good thing. Even...
INSKEEP: Politically, you mean, yeah.
SESTANOVICH: Even more important, there are scheduled meetings between Putin and Western leaders on Ukraine. And Putin has canceled them, now, saying that the Ukrainians have gone over to terror and that there is no point in having any meetings. He may not be so interested, really, in a democratic — in a diplomatic solution to this problem.
INSKEEP: OK. Stephen Sestanovich of the Council on Foreign Relations and Columbia University, thanks very much.
SESTANOVICH: A pleasure.
因斯基普：我想问的是，俄罗斯军队被控染指乌克兰东部地区的内斗。现在是什么情况？会如何发展？
塞斯塔诺维奇：那里陷入了僵局。乌克兰东部的两个地区仍有部分领土被俄罗斯分裂主义分子控制，而这些分裂分子得到了俄罗斯军方的支持。有报道称那里一直在有规律地进行部队调动和补给，由俄罗斯支持的官员不准乌克兰人进入。
因斯基普：接下来的几秒钟，你要做出最理性的猜测。普京脑子里在想什么？
塞斯塔诺维奇：普京有几件事要考虑。俄罗斯下个月要进行议会选举，这个时候激发爱国热情是一个好方法。
因斯基普：你是说从政治角度来看，对。
塞斯塔诺维奇：更重要的是，普京和西方领导人原计划在乌克兰会面。但是普京取消了这些会议，他说乌克兰已经走向恐怖主义，举行会议没有任何意义。他可能对用外交途径解决这个问题不太感兴趣。
因斯基普：好。斯蒂芬·塞斯塔诺维奇是外交关系委员会成员，也是哥伦比亚大学教授，非常谢谢你。
塞斯塔诺维奇：这是我的荣幸。

注：1.此处为播音者口误，按照上下文意思来看，应为克里米亚境内，不是乌克兰。