美国政府关门会对经济造成什么影响？

So one new deal has been reached in Hollywood but another one still hangs in the balance, this one in the nation's capital.

好莱坞达成了一项新协议，但另一项协议仍悬而未决，那就是要在美国首都签订的协议。

Yeah, it's September 25, which means Congress only has about five days left to avoid a government shutdown.

对，今天是9月25日，也就是说，国会只剩下五天时间来避免政府关门。

Given the infighting in the Republican Party, it looks less likely that a deal can be reached in time, which leads to the question of what effects a government shutdown could have on the U.S. economy.

考虑到共和党内部的内讧，准时达成协议的可能性似乎不大，这就引发了一个问题，即政府关门可能对美国经济产生什么影响。

NPR's David Gura is with us now to talk about all this. Good morning, David.

NPR的大卫·古拉将为我们带来相关报道。早上好，大卫。

Hey, Michel.

你好，米歇尔。

So let's point this out again.

我们再次指出这一点。

The people who get your Social Security checks out, who process your passports, all these functions of government won't be getting paid.

为你结算社会保障金的人，为你办理护照的人，所有这些政府职能人员都无法获得报酬。

These people won't be getting paid.

这些人员将会拿不到工资。

But what could the other economic effects of a government shutdown be?

但是政府关门造成的其他经济影响是什么呢?

Yeah, I don't want to diminish the difficulty of that both to people and businesses.

我不想弱化这对个人和企业造成的的困难。

Keep in mind, though, that when there is a shutdown, everyone does get paid eventually.

但请记住，当政府关门时，每个人最终都会得到报酬。

But yeah, hundreds of thousands of government workers wouldn't get paid.

但是，是的，成千上万的政府工作人员拿不到工资。

The government wouldn't be able to pay for what it's bought.

政府将无力支付它所购买的东西。

That has a direct effect on the economy, all kinds of knock-on effects.

这对经济有直接的影响，会产生各种各样的连锁反应。

The severity of a shutdown will depend on how long it lasts if there is one.

政府关门的严重程度将取决于关门持续的时间，如果政府关门的话。

And if it were to go on for a couple of days, couple of weeks, well, the fallout from that would not be huge.

如果这种情况持续几天，几周，后果都不会很严重。

But if it were to last longer, then the U.S. economy would take a bigger hit.

但如果持续更长时间，那么美国经济将受到更大的打击。

The financial services firm EY says a shutdown would take one-tenth of a percentage point off of GDP every week.

金融服务公司安永表示，政府关门将使国内生产总值每周减少0.1个百分点。

Greg Daco is the chief economist at EY who tells me a concern of his is when this could happen.

安永首席经济学家格雷格·达科告诉我，他担心的是政府关门何时会发生。

It comes at a time when we are seeing other threats to the U.S. economy.

政府关门在我们看到美国经济面临其他威胁的时候来临。

Michel, the economy is facing all kinds of headwinds right now, and the Federal Reserve fight against high inflation hasn't ended.

米歇尔，经济现在面临着各种不利因素，美联储对抗高通胀的斗争还没有结束。

So tell us more about those potential headwinds.

请为我们讲讲更多关于这些潜在的不利因素。

It's a long list of them, according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

根据美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的说法，不利因素可以列很长的清单。

Growth is already slowing.

经济增长已经在放缓。

Soon, student loan payments are starting back up for 40 million borrowers.

不久，学生贷款还款又要提供给4000万借贷者了。

Autoworkers are on strike. Energy prices have been rising pretty steadily.

汽车工人正在罢工。能源价格一直在稳步上涨。

One other thing is, during a shutdown, policymakers would not be able to get any new economic data.

另一件事是，在政府关门期间，政策制定者将无法更新任何经济数据。

That's because the government officials in charge of that data wouldn't be able to work.

这是因为负责这些数据的政府官员将会无法工作。

And as I look at my calendar here on my desk, Michel, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its next jobs report on Friday, October 6, so just a few days after the fiscal year ends.

米歇尔，我看了着桌子上的日历，劳工部计划在10月6日星期五发布下一份就业报告，也就是这个财政年度结束后的几天。

And we're supposed to get new inflation data less than a week after that.

在发布后不到一周的时间里，我们应该会得到新的通胀数据。