经济学人下载:灾难来袭日本,大自然的报复

A second reason to expect the economy to cope is that although the area affected by the tsunami and quake was vast, it contains no Kobes. It is less populated and less industrialised. According to calculations by economists at Nomura, an investment bank, the three worst-hit prefectures (Miyagi, Fukushima and Iwate) account for just 3.6% of Japan’s economy, though electronics factories are clustered there.

还有一个原因可以使我们相信日本经济能够摆脱危机。尽管海啸影响的区域甚是广大，这其中却鲜有神户这样的都市区。受灾的大部分地区人口稀疏，工业化水平偏低。野村公司（一家投资银行）的经济学家称，尽管工厂云集，但三个受灾最严重的县（宫城县，福岛县，岩手县）对日本经济的贡献率仅为3.6%

Adding in neighbouring Nagano, Ibaraki and Niigata prefectures, which were much less damaged, brings the affected area’s contribution to GDP to 10.8%. That is a big chunk. But Tomo Kinoshita of Nomura nevertheless estimates that the direct negative hit to Japan’s GDP would be limited to between 0.25 and 0.5 percentage points in the first quarter, and 0.5 and 1 percentage point in the second. Another bank, Goldman Sachs, estimates the cost of the damage at ¥16 trillion ($202 billion), or about 4% of GDP. Spread over a few years of reconstruction, that should easily be affordable—a drop in the ocean of Japanese public indebtedness.

然而，如果将邻近的长野县，茨城县，新泻县这些受灾较轻的地方计算在内，这一数字则会上升至10.8%，这是一个不小的数字。但野村银行的樋渡木下估计，今年第一季度，灾难对经济的直接负面影响仅为0.25%-0.5%，第二季度会稍有上升达到0.5%-1%。另一家银行—高盛集团预测，这次灾难的经济损失将达16万亿日元（2020亿美元），或者说占GDP的4%。但考虑重建工作会持续数年，日本应该可以承担得起，同时相比日本的巨额公共债务，这真是小巫见大巫。

However, first guesses about the disaster’s impact have been overtaken by further disasters. The nuclear crisis at Fukushima broadens the economic danger in at least three ways. First, the perceived risk of radiation may close businesses, deter investment and hamper rebuilding. TEPCO, with its shares hammered, now faces worries about its creditworthiness. And selling nuclear-energy technology abroad—Toshiba, Hitachi and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries all produce reactors—is one of the linchpins of Mr Kan’s growth strategy.

然而，面临接踵而至的灾难，这些推测变得越发不可靠。福岛核电站危机至少在三方面深化了经济危险的可能性。首先，核辐射可能使公司停业，投资减少，重建受阻。近日，由于股票大跌，日本电力能源公司一直担心自己良好的信誉。不仅如此，由于东芝，日立和三菱重工三家企业都生产核反应堆，向外出口核能技术也是菅直人首相促进经济的重要一环。

Second, electricity rationing may keep output depressed for longer than originally anticipated. Only a week after the quake, Tokyo was facing rolling blackouts. And third, the nervous mood makes financial panic more likely. Over three days the Bank of Japan announced plans to inject a total of ¥55.6 trillion into financial markets, to avoid a collapse in investor confidence and keep credit flowing. On March 14th and 15th shares on the Tokyo exchange fell by over 16%, their worst two-day fall since 1987. They have recovered somewhat since, but the yen also strengthened to record highs against the dollar. A nuclear meltdown may yet lead to a financial one. That would add another international risk—financial contagion—to all the other dangers looming over Japan.

其次，限电会令工业生产持续低迷，而且时间要长于我们的预期。灾难发生仅一周首都东京已经开始不定期停电。最后一点，人们的紧张情绪很有可能使金融市场陷入慌乱。过去的三天中，日本银行宣布向金融市场注资55.6万亿日元，此举旨在避免投资信心崩溃并促进资本流通。14,15两日，东京股票交易所股价暴跌16%，这是自1987年以来最为严重的一次两天连跌。自此之后，股市小有反弹，但汇率方，面日元对美元再创新高。核危机很可能引发金融危机。除去日本所面临的种种危机之外，这会给全世界带来一个新的危机—金融危机的蔓延。