经济学人下载:应对日本核灾难,与辐射共生

So far the direct economic impact of radiation fears on exports is slight. Fishing and farming account for a very small part of Japan’s total exports, even if a disproportionate share in Japan’s stricken north-east. Even so, the reputation for high quality enjoyed by Japanese-sourced food will probably suffer.

目前为止，辐射恐慌对日本产品出口的直接经济影响还是很小的。即便日本受灾的东北部分配比例不均，渔业和农业占日本所有出口量很小的一部分。虽然如此，高品质食品享有“源于日本”的声誉还是可能受到损害。

At home, the impact on domestic demand may be much bigger. Economists say fears of radiation dampen consumer confidence and extend as far south as Tokyo, which is 250km from the Fukushima plant. Some pundits want the government to launch a publicity blitz to urge ordinary Japanese to spend more. It may do little good, especially coming from a government that does not inspire confidence. Many ordinary Japanese unaffected by the tsunami and nuclear mess either feel a sympathy for the victims or are ashamed to be seen enjoying themselves. The Japanese tendency towards self-restraint, or jishuku, is back in force. People are cutting back on everything from shopping trips to hanami parties to view the spring cherry blossom.

对于国内而言，辐射恐慌对本土需求的冲击可能更加严重。经济学家认为：辐射恐慌降低了消费者信心并且蔓延到了福岛核电站向南250千米的东京市。有的学者希望政府能来一场公开宣传的“闪电战”，以此来督促普通的日本民众增加开销。这几乎可能没有作用，尤其是政府本身就无法激发民众的消费信心。有许多普通日本民众没有受到海啸和核危机影响，他们要么同情受灾者，要么就羞于被看到在享受生活。日本人倾向的自律精神，或者用日语说是“自肃精神”，开始回归主流。从购物旅行到春天樱花盛开时的赏花会，人们正在削减一切开支。

As for Minamisoma, its residents are fed up with paying the price for a nuclear accident at a plant that brought them little benefit—after all, it sent nearly all its electricity to Tokyo. Takashi Shibaguchi, a 41-year-old acupuncturist who lived on the outskirts of the town, says he will never return home, even though he has no money and is sleeping on the floor of an evacuation shelter with his wife and four-year-old daughter. He is rational about the radiation risks to himself, but fears his daughter growing up in such a potentially poisonous environment. “I’m done with it,” he says.

至于南相马市，那里的居民受够了为几乎没有为他们带来利益的核电站造成的核事故买单——毕竟那个核电站几乎把所有的电力都供给了东京市。居住在南相马市郊区的41岁针灸医师芝口上先生说他永远不会回去，即便是他一贫如洗，即便是要和妻子以及4岁的女儿睡在避难所的地板上。芝口先生能理性估计自己所遭受的辐射风险，但是他害怕自己女儿在这种可能有毒的环境中长大，他说：“我不会回去，我跟南相马市缘分已尽。”