经济学人下载:英国剧变,英国正在宪法剧变的边缘

The Lib Dems have long hated FPTP. In the 2010 general election, one Lib Dem MP was elected for every 120,000 Lib Dem votes, one Tory MP for every 35,000 Conservative votes and one Labour MP for every 33,400 votes for that party. The Lib Dems really want a form of PR. Under PR, most parliaments would probably be hung, and Lib Dems could dream of playing a pivotal role in endless coalitions.

自民党厌恶FPTP由来已久。在2010年的大选，一位自民党的议员需要得到12万选票才能入选国会，保守党和工党分别为3.5万和33.4万。自民党着实希望施行PR。在PR下，议会大多都没有多数党，自民党就能期待在无尽的联合政府中担任关键角色了。

For their part, the Tories have traditionally disliked the idea of PR and indeed coalition government, but have also resented the pro-Labour bias in the current system of voting at general elections. Studies led by Ron Johnston of Bristol University show that if Labour and the Conservatives had won identical shares of the national vote in the last four general elections (and abstentions and other votes had remained unchanged), Labour would still have romped home with scores more seats than the Tories: in 2010 the “bias” was 54 seats.

托利党历来不喜欢PR以及联合政府，但也厌恶现行大选体制对工党的偏爱。布里斯托大学罗恩??强斯敦（Ron Johnston）领导的研究显示如果过去四次全国大选中工党和保守党获得完全相同的选票，工党还是会毫不费力的占有比托利党多的席位：2010年大选中这一“偏爱”代表着54个席位。

Conservatives tend to ascribe this bias almost wholly to the fact that Labour-held seats usually contain fewer registered voters than Tory ones. Between boundary reviews, that gap tends to grow inexorably, due to long-term population shifts away from (Labour-leaning) inner cities to (Tory-leaning) suburbs. This explains why Tories typically push for frequent reviews of constituency boundaries, and Labour resists.

保守党倾向于把这种偏爱完全归因于工党获得席位的注册选民数总是比托利党少。由于人口长期从市中心（亲工党）向郊区（亲保守党）流动，对选区边界的重新划分分歧也越来越激烈。这解释了为什么托利党一直在频繁推动选区边界的重新划分，而工党一直反对。

In fact, constituency size is only one factor favouring Labour. More important is that Conservative seats are often super-safe, with many more Tories turning out to vote than are needed to secure victory: Labour votes tend to be spread about more efficiently. Still, the Tory desire for new constituency boundaries and the Lib Dem hatred of FPTP gave the parties the basis for a deal, agreed during five days of coalition negotiations in May 2010. The Lib Dems would support the redrawing of constituency boundaries (and fixed-term parliaments, another longstanding goal). The Conservatives would support a national referendum on whether to move to AV. Killing off FPTP quickly became a totemic goal for many Lib Dems, who are not enjoying coalition with the Tories. Few Lib Dems are great fans of AV, a system that Mr Clegg once called a “miserable little compromise” before accepting it as a “baby step” towards PR.

事实上，选区的划分只是工党优势中的一方面。更重要的是保守党的席位通常都非常安全，托利党获得的选票比确保胜利所需的选票多得多，而工党的得票较为紧俏。托利党希望选区重新划分和自民党厌恶FPTP让这两个党派有达成协议的基础，并在2010年5月联合政府为期5天的商谈就这一点做到了探讨。自民党将支持选区的重新划分（以及另一个长期存在的目标：确定议会任期）。保守党将支持就是否采用AV进行全国公投。消灭FPTP很快成为自民党广大党员的图腾般的目标，他们不喜欢和托利党共组联合政府。少数自民党鼎力支持AV，克莱格先生曾将其称之为迈向PR伟业的“一小步”做出的“可悲的小妥协”。