经济学人下载:预算,真正的战斗打响了

Predictably, much of that time was instead spent grandstanding. The House recently passed a bill stating that if the Senate did not pass a budget of its own, the House’s $61 billion cut, which the Senate had already rejected, should become law anyway. Needless to say, the Senate did not embrace this idea. House Republicans then took to protesting on the Senate steps each day, calling on the Democrats’ leader in that chamber, Harry Reid, to resign. Meanwhile, a group of tea-party activists threatened dire vengeance on any Republicans who voted for anything less than the full $61 billion of cuts. A bipartisan group of 64 of the 100 senators sent Mr Obama a letter asking him to find a solution to their problems. Mr Obama called Congress’s failure to pass a budget “inexcusable” and said that he would summon the leaders of its two chambers to the White House every day for talks until a deal was done.

不难预测，大部分时间都被浪费在哗众取宠上了。众议院最近通过了一项议案，该议案指出：如果参议院否决众议院的预算——实际上参议院早已否决该预算——那该预算必将通过，具有法律效力。无需多言，参议院不接受这一建议。众议院的共和党人随后每天都抗议参议院的决议，要求参议院民主党领导人哈里·瑞德辞职。同时，一群茶党思想的激进分子威胁称将对任何支持610亿美元以下预算削减方案的共和党人实施极端报复。由100位参议员中的64位组成的两党联立组织向奥巴马总统致信一封，要求总统寻求问题的解决方案。奥巴马总统则称国会未能通过预算方案“难辞其咎”，并表示以后每天他将召见参众两院领导人到白宫进行商讨，直至达成协议之日。

A man with a plan谋略之士

It was into this maelstrom that Paul Ryan, the Republican who heads the House Budget Committee, released his proposed budget for next year on April 5th. He claimed it would slash spending by $6.2 trillion over the next ten years and the projected deficit by $4.4 trillion relative to the proposal the president unveiled in February. All of this would place America’s finances on a sounder path—though critics note that Mr Ryan’s figures are based on some highly implausible assumptions, such as a prompt collapse in the unemployment rate and a surge in growth thanks to lower taxes. Whereas under the president’s plan debt would continue to rise steadily towards 100% of GDP, Mr Ryan’s would supposedly see it peak just shy of 75% of GDP in 2013 and decline thereafter.

正是在这一大混乱背景之下，共和党人保罗·瑞恩——众议院预算委员会主席——于4月5日提出了下一年度的财政预算方案。他表示该方案将在未来十年内大幅削减政府支出，减幅达6.2万亿美元；与奥巴马总统今年二月份提出的方案相比，该方案预计将削减赤字达4.4万亿美元。所有这些措施都将使美国财政回归平稳运行轨道——尽管批评家指责瑞恩先生的数据是基于可信度极低的假设之上的——例如降低税率带来的失业率迅速下降、经济上涨。而在总统的计划中，债务将持续稳步增长至与国内生产总值相当的水平。瑞恩先生的方案中，债务占国内生产总值的比重最高峰将于2013年勉强达到75%，随后开始下降。

The Republicans claim to be able to achieve this feat by taking an axe to two of the biggest and most politically sensitive items in the budget: Medicare, government subsidised health-care for the elderly, and Medicaid, its equivalent for the poor. (There are limits to the number of live rails Mr Ryan is willing to grasp at once: his budget leaves intact the biggest single item in the budget, Social Security, the state pension scheme). These three “entitlements” already account for over 40% of government spending and are growing so fast that they will theoretically consume all government revenue within a few decades.

共和党人声称有能力完成这一壮举，但需对预算中开支最大、政治敏感度最高的两个项目进行大刀阔斧的改革。这两大项目就是：医疗改革项目——政府针对老年人实行的医疗津贴项目，和医疗补助项目——政府针对贫困人口的医疗补助项目。（瑞恩先生欲一次解决问题的数量有限：他的预算方案未触及另外一个最大的项目——社会保障制度，国家养老金方案）。这三大“公民应得权利”就占据了全部政府开支的40%以上，而且增长速度极快，理论上讲，不消几十年就将消耗全部政府财政收入。