经济学人下载:魔鬼和那湾蔚蓝深邃的海

Mr Abulafia is too conscientious a historian to speculate much about the future, or even to prejudge how the modern age will fit into the sweep of Mediterranean history. But using his analytical tools, it is surely possible to sketch out a rather dark outlook for the sea, thanks not just to the ebbing of European power but to avoidable crises of governance and demography. As things stood until recently, an unhealthy sort of system linked northern and southern Europe, with subsidies and tourist euros from the north helping to mask and preserve dysfunctional politics and sclerotic societies south of the Alps.

阿布拉菲亚先生作为一位认真负责的历史学家并没有在本书中对未来作出过多猜测，也没有对目前这个时代将在整个地中海历史中所处的位置作出预判。但是利用他的分析工具，我们肯定可以为地中海勾勒出一个黯淡的未来，这不仅是因为因为欧洲的衰落也是由于本可避免的治理危机和人口危机。直到最近，把欧洲北部地区和南部地区联系起来的是一种不健康的体制。在这种体制下，欧盟补贴和来自欧洲北部的游客给当地带来的收入帮助掩盖并维持着阿尔卑斯山以南地区一潭死水的政治和僵化的社会。

An even less healthy dynamic connected Europe as a whole with north Africa: the European Union absorbed some of the Maghreb’s surplus labour, while helping to prop up the region’s authoritarian regimes. Both those political ecosystems are now collapsing, with the euro-zone crisis, the advent of Arab people power and the war in Libya. The crises present a challenge to both regions; the Maghreb needs to loosen political control and strengthen its institutions and Europe must support such moves, both politically and economically. Failing to seize the opportunity may result in the flow of desperate people northward becoming uncontrollable. That may not be so unusual when set against three millennia of conflict in the Med. The worst outcome would be for Europe and north Africa, both losing relative weight in the world, to reinforce one another’s decline. That would be a lamentable fate for the “Great Sea”, invoked in a Jewish prayer which gives this book its title.

将整个欧洲与北非联系起来的则是更加不健康的体制。欧盟吸收了北非地区的一部分过剩劳动力，与此同时也成了支持该地区专制政府的帮凶。这两种政治生态系统眼下都随着欧元区债务危机，阿拉伯人民力量的觉醒和利比亚的战事而轰然倒塌。这些危机无论对北非还是欧洲都是一种挑战。北非需要放松其政治控制并加强制度建设，而欧洲则必须从经济和政治上予以支持。如果不能抓住这个机会的话，结果可能是绝望的民众大量向北涌入欧洲而无法控制。放在地中海三千年的冲突历史中来看，这或许并没什么大不了。最坏的结果是在世界舞台上相对实力日益衰落的欧洲和北非互相之间加剧对方的衰落。这样的命运，对于地中海这一“伟大之海”——这个称谓来源于一则犹太祷文，同时也是本书书名的来源——来说，将是令人扼腕的。