经济学人下载:要么70岁退休,要么破产!

Current plans to raise the retirement age are not bold enough
目前提高退休年龄的计划不够大胆

PUT aside the cruise brochures and let the garden retain that natural look for a few more years. Demography and declining investment returns are conspiring to keep you at your desk far longer than you ever expected.

先将海上巡游的宣传册放一放，让花园的自然面貌多保持几年吧！人口结构和日益减少的投资回报导致你要工作长得多的时间，超出你以往的预期。

This painful truth is no longer news in the rich world, and many governments have started to deal with the ageing problem. They have announced increases in the official retirement age that attempt to hold down the costs of state pensions while encouraging workers to stay in their jobs or get on their bikes and look for new ones.

这一痛苦的事实在发达国家已经不是什么新闻，许多政府已经开始处理老龄化问题。它们已经宣布提高正式的退休年龄，一方面试图控制国家养老金的成本，另一方面又鼓励工人坚守岗位或骑车寻找新的工作。

Unfortunately, the boldest plans look inadequate. Older people are going to have to stay economically active longer than governments currently envisage; and that is going to require not just governments, but also employers and workers, to behave differently.

不幸的是，最大胆的计划看上去也还不够。老年人要继续积极参与创造经济效应的时间要比政府当前设想的要长。这将要求各政府、雇主和工人都采取不同的行动。

Trying, but not very hard在尝试，但未竭尽全力
Since 1971 the life expectancy of the average 65-year-old in the rich world has improved by four to five years. By 2050, forecasts suggest, they will add a further three years on top of that. Until now, people have converted all that extra lifespan into leisure time. The average retirement age in the OECD in 2010 was 63, almost one year lower than in 1970.

自1971年以来，发达国家的平均预期寿命在65岁的基础上增加了4-5岁。到2050年，据预测，在此基础上将进一步增加3岁。迄今为止，人们把这些增加的寿命全部变成了休闲时间。2010年，经合组织成员国的平均退休年龄为63岁，几乎比1970年时低一岁。

Living longer, and retiring early, might not be a problem if the supply of workers were increasing. But declining fertility rates imply that by 2050 there will be just 2.6 American workers supporting each pensioner and the figures for France, Germany and Italy will be 1.9, 1.6 and 1.5 respectively. The young will be shoring up pensions systems which, as our special report this week explains, are riddled with problems.

要是工人的供应在增加，那么长寿命，早退休可能就不是问题了。但是下降的生育率表明，到2050年每位养老金领取者只有2.6个美国工人支持了，法国、德国和意大利的这一数字到时将分别是1.9、1.6和1.5。年轻人将为养老金制度提供支持，但正如我们的本周特别报道所述，养老金制度充满问题。