经济学人下载:就业数据,进展顺利但缓慢

The reason is that unemployment is falling not just because of job creation but because the pool of people who want to work, the labour force, is not growing. Many people seem to have dropped out of the labour force for good, perhaps to retire, collect disability, or return to education. And their ranks could grow. Typically, those who have been unemployed the longest are the most likely to drop out of the job hunt. But Alan Krueger, an economist at Princeton, says that has changed.

失业率下降的原因不是因为创造了就业机会，而是因为愿意工作的人群，也就是劳动力队伍，并没有扩大。 许多人似乎已经永远退出了劳动力群体，也许是退休了，也许领取了残疾证，或接受继续教育。这支队伍的人数可能会增长。一般来说，那些已经很久出于失业状态的人最有可能退出找工作的群体。 但是艾伦克鲁格（普林斯顿大学经济学家）说，这发生了变化。

Since 2007, he has found, the share of the long-term unemployed that drop out of the labour force has fallen steadily. He attributes this in part to the extension of unemployment benefit to 99 weeks from the normal 26 weeks. People who might have stopped looking for work keep at it to qualify for benefits. When the extended benefits expire at the end of this year, many of the long-term unemployed may simply drop out of the labour force. Meanwhile, those with the shortest spells of unemployment are now more likely to drop out, perhaps to return to college.

自2007年以来，他已经发现，退出劳动力群体的长期事业群体的人数已稳步下降。他将此部分归因于失业救济金从正常的26个星期延长到99周。 已经失业的人，为了领取失业救济，并不急于工作。 当延长的福利在今年年底期满，与此同时，同时那些失业期限最短的人群现在更可能退出劳动力市场，也许他们重回校园深造去了。
 
As for those lucky enough to have jobs, pay is stagnating. Hourly earnings rose just 1.7% in the year to March, a paltry raise that will soon be eaten up by the rising cost of petrol and grocery bills. This is ominous for Mr Obama, because it is the growth in overall income that seems most closely to predict a president’s re-election chances. That means pay as well as payrolls. His re-election is far from in the bag.

至于那些幸运得到工作的人来说，工资却停滞不前。 到今年三月份每小时工资将仅上升1.7%——这点微不足道的提高将很快被上涨的汽油和杂货帐单费用抵消掉。这对奥巴马是不祥的预兆， 因为总收入的上涨似乎是总统连任机会的最好预测。这意味着工资和就业人数的同时增长。他还不能十拿九稳的获得重新选举。