经济学人下载:互联网商业,又一轮的数字淘金热

Those who think that talk of a new tech bubble is misleading point out that firms such as LinkedIn and Renren have proven business models and healthy revenues. Many internet firms that went public in the late 1990s could not say the same. Moreover, the price-earnings multiples at which other public companies in the technology sector are trading are nowhere near as frothy as they were before the last bubble burst in 2000. That should limit excesses in valuing private firms.

那些认为谈论新的科技泡沫是被错误导向了的人指出，像LinkIn和人人网（Renren）这样的公司拥有证实的商业模式和健康的收入。许多在20世纪90年代上市的互联网公司并不认同这一说法。现在进行差价赚入交易的科技板块的其他上市公司的（股价）都倍增到了在2000年最后泡沫破裂前的40倍。而这将限制对私营企业过高的估值。

Bubble in the making?
正在制造中的泡沫？

This has led some venture capitalists to argue that 2011 may be more like 1995 than 1999: if a bubble is inflating, it is a long way from popping. So investors who shun internet firms now may be missing a great chance to mint money. Jeffrey Bussgang of Flybridge Capital Partners, a venture firm, notes that venture funds raised between 1995 and 1997 enjoyed stellar returns.

这招致一些风险资本对2011会更像是1995年而不是1999年的争论：如果泡沫是通胀，对破灭来说，就会有相当长的路要走。因此那些现在就跟互联网公司躲得远远的投资者也许能躲过这样一个烧钱的大厄运。Flybridge Capital Partners 的风险公司Jeffrey Bussgang，以其风险基金在1995年至1997年间的的走高而闻名，就对其一流的回报而心有欢喜。

Others point to signs of bubbliness. For instance, some start-up firms are dangling multi-million-dollar pay packages in order to tempt star programmers from Google, Microsoft and other big companies. They are chasing scarce skills when the broader technology industry is on a roll. The NASDAQ index may be far below the heights of March 2000, but it has bounced back from the global downturn; and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s Tech Pulse Index, which measures the vibrancy of America’s tech industry, is near its peak of 11 years ago (see chart 2).

有些人会指向泡沫化的征象。比如，有些新兴企业公司开成数百万美元的综合薪金，为了吸引来自谷歌或者微软等其他大公司的明星程序员。在更宽广的科技产业还只是个模子的时候，他们追求独有技术。纳斯达克（NASDAQ）指数也许距离其在2000年3月的最高位还相距甚远，但它已从全球性的触底中有所反弹；而评估美国科技产业活力的美联储（Federal Reserve Bank）的旧金山科技脉搏指数（San Francisco’s Tech Pulse Index），已经接近过去11年来的顶峰(见图2)。

There are also signs of irrational exuberance among some investors. Color, a photo-sharing and social-networking start-up, has been reportedly valued at around $100m by venture firms, even though it has an untested product in a crowded market. Competition among angel investors has helped drive up valuations of social-media start-ups by more than 50% in the past 12 months. Financiers are sometimes skimping on due diligence in the scramble to win deals. In China, too, the purported worth of young firms has risen breathtakingly fast—to an average of $15m-20m in first-round venture financings, which is expensive even by Silicon Valley’s standards.

在某些投资者中是存在非理性繁荣的征象的。据报告，照片分享和社交网络新兴企业颜色（Color）公司尽管在拥挤的市场上，它只有一个尚未通过测试的产品，却已被风险公司估值约$1亿美元。在过去的12个月里，对社交媒体新兴企业的估值，在天使投资人之间的竞争，协助驱动拉升超过了50%。金融家们有时候为了在争夺中赢得交易，也就不像应有的那般细致努力，反而是敷衍了事。在中国，同样也是，年轻公司的大体价值在呼吸之间就被快速抬升——在第一轮的风险融资中平均达到即使按硅谷的标准来看也算是昂贵的$1500-2000万美元。

The danger in all this is that investors lose sight of the risks to the value of internet companies. These are greatest in China. Competition there is intense and users are fickle. Moreover, Chinese firms must wrestle with thorny regulatory and political issues. The government has yet to shut down a listed web company and firms are usually masters of self-censorship. But any move against them could have broad repercussions for all Chinese internet stocks.

这中间的所有这些危险都是投资者失去了对互联网公司价值的所具有的风险的洞见。这些风险在中国最为巨大。中国（互联网公司间）的竞争激励，用户易生变动。更为突出的是，中国人的公司必须与难搞的监管和政治事项相角力。政府已经关闭了一家上市网页公司，而公司通常是自我审查的高手。但是任何对抗公司的行为都可能扩大造成对中国所有互联网股票的影响。

European and American internet start-ups do not face a similar threat. But they are still vulnerable to inflated expectations. “Every bubble is a game of musical chairs,” says Steve Blank, a former serial entrepreneur who teaches at Stanford. The trick is to sell or float companies just before the music stops and the bubble bursts. If some of the hopefuls of Pier 38 can do just that, they may one day be able to afford a yacht or two of their own.

欧洲和美国互联网新兴企业并不会面对到类似的威胁。但通货膨胀预期下，他们也仍然脆弱。“每一个泡泡都是一场音乐会座椅上的游戏”任教于斯坦福的前系列性的实业家Steve说。诡计就在音乐停止和泡沫破灭之前，卖出（股票）或者浮游于公司之外。要是38号坞棚（Pier 38）里的某些希望能达到这种境界，也许某一天，他们也是能够负担一两艘自己的游艇的。