经济学人下载:澳大利亚的未来,下一个黄金州

Many Australians do not seem to appreciate that they live in an unusually successful country. Accustomed to unbroken economic expansion—many are too young to remember recession—they are inclined to complain about house prices, 5% unemployment or the problems that a high exchange rate causes manufacturing and several other industries. Some Australians talk big but actually think small, and politicians may be the worst offenders. They are often reluctant to get out in front in policymaking—on climate change, for instance—preferring to follow what bigger countries do. In the quest for a carbon policy, both the main parties have chopped and changed their minds, and their leaders, leaving voters divided and bemused. There can be little doubt that if America could come to a decision on the topic, Australia would soon follow suit.

许多澳大利亚人似乎并没有意识到生活在一个与众不同的成功国家。对从未间断的经济扩张习以为常——许多人太年轻，不记得衰退的事——容易抱怨房价、5%的失业率、或者高汇率导致的制造业或其他工业的问题。许多人夸夸其谈却并未做过多思考，首当其冲的就是政治家们。通常，他们极不情愿地走到台前决策——比方说，在气候变化问题上——乐于跟在大国的屁股后面。在碳（排放）政策的探索中，两个主要党派朝三暮四、朝令夕改，他们的领导人让选民们产生分歧、不知所措。毫无疑问，如果美国在议题上作出决定，澳大利亚立马跟风。

Its current political leaders, with notable exceptions, are perhaps the least impressive feature of today’s Australia. Just when their country has the chance to become influential in the world, they appear introverted and unable to see the big picture. Little legislation of consequence has been passed since 2003. A labour-market reform introduced by the Liberals was partly repealed by Labor. A proposed tax on the mining companies was badly mishandled (also by Labor), leading to a much feebler one. All attempts at a climate-change bill have failed. The prime minister, Labor’s Julia Gillard, admits she is unmoved by foreign policy. The leader of the opposition, Tony Abbott, takes his cue from America’s tea-party movement, by fighting a carbon tax with a “people’s revolt” in which little is heard apart from personal insults. Instead of pointing to the great benefits of immigration—population growth is responsible for about two-fifths of the increase in real GDP in the past 40 years—the two parties pander shamelessly to xenophobic fears about asylum-seekers washing up in boats.

除了明显的例外，澳大利亚目前的政治领袖可能给人的印象最为深刻。当他们的国家有机会在世界上更具影响力时，他们畏手畏脚，看不到大的图景。自2003年以来，很少有立法最终得以通过。由自由党提出的劳动力市场改革部分被工党取消。对矿业公司收税的提议也被搞黄（又是工党），导致税收政策更加无力。关于气候变化法案的尝试全部以失败告终。澳大利亚总理——工党的朱莉娅·吉拉德承认她对外交政策无动于衷。反对党领袖托尼·艾博特从美国的茶党运动中得到启示，他以“人民的反抗”为由反对碳税（提案）。所谓“人民的反抗”，除了人身侮辱之外，什么都没有。两党不是指出从移民中获取的巨大利益——在过去40年间，人口增长对实际GDP增长的贡献约为2/5——却都对仇外恐惧（担心政治庇护者把澳大利亚当做避风港）无耻迎奉。

…or a golden future?
……或者，一个金色的未来？

None of this will get Australians to take pride in their achievements and build on them. Better themes for politicians would be their plans to develop first-class universities, nourish the arts, promote urban design and stimulate new industries in anything from alternative energy to desalinating water. All these are under way, but few are surging ahead. Though the country’s best-known building is an opera house, for example, the arts have yet to receive as much official patronage as they deserve. However, the most useful policy to pursue would be education, especially tertiary education. Australia’s universities, like its wine, are decent and dependable, but seldom excellent. Yet educated workers are essential for an economy competitive in services as well as minerals. First, however, Aussies need a bit more self-belief. After that perhaps will come the zest and confidence of an Antipodean California.

这些都不能让澳大利亚人对所取得的成就本身和完成这一成就感到自豪。对政治家而言，计划发展第一流的大学、培养艺术、促进城市设计、刺激从可替代能源到淡化水的任何新工业将是更好的主题。所有的这一切都在开展之中，但鲜有突飞猛进。比方说，尽管澳大利亚最著名的建筑是歌剧院，艺术还没有得到本应得到的官方支持。不过，最该探究的有用政策当属教育，尤其是高等教育。澳大利亚的大学像它的酒一样，还不错也值得信赖，但几乎没有出类拔萃的。不过，对于在服务业和采矿业充满竞争的经济而言，受教育的工人是必不可少的。不过，澳洲人首先需要多一点自信，然后，澳大利亚版加利福尼亚式的热情和信心或许就会出现。