经济学人下载:当中国崛起时,澳大利亚必将战栗?

Foreign policy
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As China rises, must Australia tremble?
当中国崛起时，澳大利亚必将战栗？

May 26th 2011 | from the print edition

BACK IN THE days of the tyranny of distance, the primal terror of Australians was the fear of abandonment. During the country’s first few decades it looked for its security to Britain, a friendly but far-off power. After Singapore fell to the Japanese in 1942, Britain abandoned its former colony. Fortunately, America took its place and has been guaranteeing Australia’s security ever since. Even so, Australia is once again feeling nervous about finding itself alone, prompted by three changes. The first is the growing economic power of China, followed closely by its growing political and military power. The second is that America’s role as the single pole of a unipolar world is inevitably coming to an end. And third, Australia’s new pattern of trade means that for the first time its main commercial partner, China, is not a strategic ally. None of this involves an immediate threat to Australians, but it makes life more complicated.

在世界还被距离所主宰的时代，澳大利亚人最大的恐惧莫过于遭到抛弃。在该国成立之初的几十年中，澳大利亚仰仗友好却遥远的强国——英国为其提供安全保障。当新加坡于1942年被日本人攻陷之后，英国抛弃了这片先前的殖民地。幸好，美国接了英国的位置，并在此后一直保障着澳大利亚的安全。即便如此，由于三方面变化所致，澳大利亚还是再一次为发觉自己孤立无援而忧心忡忡。第一种变化是中国正在增强的经济实力，以及该国紧随经济实力增长而增长的政治与军事实力。第二种变化在于，美国所扮演的单极世界中唯一一极的角色正在不可避免地走向终结。第三种变化则是，澳大利亚新的贸易格局意味着出现了前所未有的情况，即该国主要的商业伙伴——中国，并不是自己的战略盟友。对于澳大利亚人而言，所有这一切并没有包含迫在眉睫的威胁，但它却使生活变得更加复杂。