经济学人下载:当中国崛起时,澳大利亚必将战栗?

Mr White’s thesis, put forward in a recent issue of Quarterly Essay, has caused some debate in Australia, but few people there see the United States wanting to carve up Asia with China. Rather, they say, the signs are that it will simply re-engage and compete. The hope is that China’s main military aim is to have control of the waters round its coasts, and thus to keep other countries away from its maritime borders. So long as that does not involve directly challenging America for primacy, both countries can continue to compete and co-operate.

怀特在近期的《季评》(Quarterly Essay)上提出的论点，已经在澳大利亚引发了一定的争论，不过该国并没有多少人认为美国希望与中国瓜分亚洲，他们转而提出：迹象表明美国将只会再度与中国进行接触并与之竞争。人们所希望的是，中国的主要军事目标是获得对其海岸附近水域的控制权，并因此将其他国家阻挡在该国海洋边界之外。只要这不涉及为争夺主导权而向美国发起直接挑战，中美两国就能继续进行竞争与合作。

Remember the Dardanelles
记住达达尼尔战役

America is popular in Australia, and vice versa. When Ms Gillard delivered a glutinous speech to a joint session of Congress in March, she got six standing ovations. No big changes seem likely, but Australia is rich these days and America is feeling poor. It may be asking the Aussies for help before long, perhaps even suggesting it should place some forces alongside America’s in somewhere like Guam, from which Uncle Sam can show who’s boss in the Pacific. Australia might not welcome this: it wants to be friends with both big powers.

美国在澳大利亚广受欢迎，而后者同样在美国深得人心。当吉拉德在3月份向美国国会两院联席会议发表一篇粘稠腻人的演讲时，听众曾六次为她起立鼓掌。没有什么重大的变化看似将要发生，不过如今澳大利亚财力雄厚，而美国自感囊中羞涩，或许过不了多久，美国就会要求澳洲人伸出援手，甚至有可能提议澳大利亚应当在诸如关岛等地与美国一道部署军力，正是在这些地区，山姆大叔可以表明谁才是太平洋上的老大。澳大利亚或许并不欢迎这种局面：它希望与两大强国都成为朋友。

The Aussies’ attitude to China remains tentative. Most Australians see relations as cordial—Ms Gillard made a successful visit to Beijing last month—but a poll for the Lowy Institute last month suggested almost half believe China will become a military threat within 20 years. Many worry about the extent of Chinese investment; although any proposal above a certain size is automatically reviewed by the authorities, the Lowy poll showed that 57% thought the government allowed too much of it. But Colin Barnett, the premier of Western Australia, where all resources seem magnetically drawn to China, is unconcerned. He says he welcomed 85 delegations from China last year and spends more time there than he does in Canberra.

澳洲人对于中国的态度依旧犹豫不决。在大部分澳大利亚人看来，澳中关系热情真诚——上个月，吉拉德对北京进行了一次成功的访问，不过罗维研究所(Lowy Institute)上月的一次民意调查却显示，将近半数的受访者相信中国将会在20年内成为一大军事威胁。许多人对于中国投资的幅度感到担忧：尽管任何超过一定规模的投资提案都将自动交由当局复审，但罗维调查依旧显示，有57%的受访者认为政府允许的中国投资过多。不过西澳大利亚州州长科林．巴尼特(Colin Barnett)对此却并没有放在心上，该州所有的资源似乎都像受到磁力吸引一般流向了中国。巴尼特表示，去年他迎接了85个来自中国的代表团，而他在中国待的时间比他在堪培拉的时间还要长。