经济学人下载:当中国崛起时,澳大利亚必将战栗?

Not yet on their doorstep. For years Australia was neurotically concerned about Indonesia, a huge neighbour that has sometimes looked violent or unstable but now seems benign, democratic and rather successful. Smaller neighbours, however, are more worrying. In Papua New Guinea, for example, administered by Australia from 1906 to 1973, many of the social indicators are heading down and it is becoming increasingly violent. Some of the tiny island states that speckle the map of the Pacific also make uncomfortable neighbours. Fiji has coups, the Solomons has scandals, and almost all have struggling economies. Since poverty and size make them potentially easy to influence, they need care and attention.

不过威胁尚未兵临城下。多年来，澳大利亚对于印度尼西亚抱有一种神经质般的担忧，印尼是一个曾经时而看似狂暴或不稳定的庞大邻邦，但该国如今看起来既温和又民主，而且相当成功。不过，规模较小的邻国则更加令人担心。例如在1906年至1973年间由澳大利亚管理的巴布亚新几内亚，该国许多社会指标正在下滑，暴力色彩也日趋浓重。散布于太平洋版图上的狭小岛国中，也有一些变成了令人不安的邻居。斐济发生政变，所罗门群岛出现丑闻，而且这些国家的经济形势几乎都是举步维艰。贫困和狭小使得它们在潜在层面上易于受到影响，因此这些国家需要得到关照和注意。

The wider region is the larger worry, partly because it encompasses so many poor, autocratic or unstable countries, partly because Australia does not fit in very comfortably. It has never really tried to pass itself off as an Asian country, nor been accepted as such. Instead, it has made itself seem less out of place by joining, and sometimes helping to create, various regional groups. Many of these are fine as far as they go, but some accept too many nasty members (such as Myanmar) to allow useful agreement, and even the more discriminating clubs have their tensions. Mr Rudd, as prime minister, worked hard to promote the creation of an Asia-Pacific Community in which everything from security, trade and terrorism to energy, disease and natural disasters would be discussed, filling a large gap in the other arrangements. It may prove useful if it comes off.

部分是因为更广阔的地区包含着那么多贫困、独裁或不稳定的国家，部分是由于澳大利亚并没有舒舒服服地融入其中，因此这片区域更令澳大利亚感到担忧。澳大利亚从未真正试图扮作一个亚洲国家，也从来没有被接受为一个亚洲国家。该国转而通过加入（以及有时帮助创建）各种类型的地区集团，以使自己在这片区域内看上去并没有那么格格不入。此类集团中有许多就目前的发展而言还算不错，不过有些集团却因为接纳了太多可憎的成员（如缅甸），而无法产生有用的协定，而且即便是那些挑选成员时更加注意区分的集团，也存在着自己的紧张局面。陆克文在担任澳大利亚总理时，曾努力推动亚太共同体的创建，在这一组织中，各方可以对从安全、贸易及恐怖主义，到能源、疾病及自然灾害等所有议题展开讨论，它将填补其他安排所留下的大片空白。如果该集团能够成功建立，它或许将被证明大有裨益。

The political task, though, has to some extent been taken over by the G20, in whose creation Mr Rudd played a role, helping to ensure that it was not confined to just 14 countries. This is the natural forum for a middle-ranking power, such as Australia, with global as well as regional interests. Australia, remember, has sent its troops to fight in wars from South Africa to Vietnam. Nowadays they go to Iraq and Afghanistan. It is clearly right that it should have a place among democracies of a certain economic weight, such as Canada, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey.

不过，这一政治任务却在某种程度上已被二十国集团接手承担，陆克文在后者的创建中也发挥了作用，他帮助确保该组织并不仅限于14个国家。对于类似澳大利亚这样一个既具有地区利益，也拥有全球利益的中等强国而言，二十国集团是一个天然论坛。请记住一点：从南非到越南，澳大利亚都曾出兵参战，如今，澳军则前往伊拉克和阿富汗作战。澳大利亚应当在诸如加拿大、墨西哥、韩国以及土耳其等具有一定经济分量的民主国家中占据一席之地，这一点显然并无不当之处。