经济学人下载:当中国崛起时,澳大利亚必将战栗?

Where Oz still counts
澳洲依旧重要之处

In truth, Australia is a bigger power than it sometimes believes. Out of the world’s 193 sovereign states, it ranks sixth in land area, 13th in economic production, 14th in defence spending and 50th in population. It will be overtaken in some of these categories because its population will stay relatively small, but for the time being it still carries some weight.

事实上，澳大利亚是一个比它自己有时所相信的更大的强国。在全球193个主权国家中，该国的国土面积排名第6位，经济产出排名第13位，国防开支排名第14位，人口排名第50位。由于该国人口规模将保持在相对较小的水平上，因此在这其中的某些类别上，澳大利亚将被其他国家赶超，但眼下该国仍然具有一定的分量。

That is already apparent in its foreign-aid budget, which the Howard government doubled and the current government says it will double again, bringing it to 0.5% of GDP by 2015. And no longer will most of it be spent regionally; in future it will be a global programme. But America may also make increased demands on Australia that will call for higher spending on defence.

这一点在澳大利亚的对外援助预算中已经一目了然，霍华德政府将这一预算提高了一倍，而现任政府表示预算规模将再度翻番，到2015年时将其提升至GDP的0.5%。而且这一预算将不再大部分用于局部地区之内；未来，这将会是一个全球计划。不过，美国或许也会对澳大利亚提出更多的需求，这将要求后者增加国防开支。

The reason, of course, will be China, which has become a pushy maritime power. Its actions, including the commissioning this year of its first aircraft-carrier, make that plain. Less clear is whether it will want to challenge the United States at some point for maritime primacy in and around the Pacific. Some pessimists see that as inevitable for a world power in the making. More optimistic analysts think China will stay preoccupied with economic development at home for at least two or three decades. Both groups agree, however, that a problem, if mishandled, could escalate, just as it did in 1995-96, when China was “testing” missiles and America sailed a carrier battle-group through the Taiwan Strait.

中国当然将是其原因之所在，该国已经成为了一个咄咄逼人的海上强国。包括今年第一艘航空母舰服役在内，中国的行为使得这一点得到了清楚的体现。尚没有此般清晰的则是：中国是否将会在某一时刻，希望为夺取太平洋及其周边海域的海上主导地位而向美国发起挑战。在某些悲观人士看来，对于一个正在形成中的世界强国而言，这一局面将不可避免。而更为乐观的分析家则认为：中国在未来至少二三十年时间内，仍会继续全神贯注于本国的经济发展。不过，双方都同意一点：如果一个问题处置失当，则有可能升级，这就像1995年至1996年间的情况一样，当时中国“试射”导弹，而美国派遣航母战斗群穿越台湾海峡。

Australia, for its part, has to make guesses about America’s future behaviour as well as China’s. Hugh White, professor of strategic studies at Australian National University, believes that, faced with China’s growing power, America can either withdraw from Asia, share power with China or compete for primacy. He worries about America’s resoluteness in a long competition with China, already sees a “drift to antagonism” and fears it could lead to a war that might turn nuclear. For Australia, he thinks, the best outcome would be for America to relinquish primacy and share power with China and other countries in a “concert of Asia”.

对于澳大利亚而言，它必须猜测美国以及中国在未来的行为。澳大利亚国立大学的战略研究教授休．怀特(Hugh White)相信，面对中国正在增长的实力，美国可以或者撤出亚洲，与中国分享权力，或者与中国争夺主导地位。怀特对于美国在与中国展开长期竞争一事上的坚毅态度感到担忧，他已觉察到一种“向着敌对状况的滑动”，并担心这可能会导致一场将向核战争方向转化的战争。修特认为对澳大利亚而言，最好的结果将是美国放弃主导地位，在“亚洲协调”体系下与中国以及其他国家分享权力。