经济学人下载:中国的房地产泡沫,迟早爆破

Chinese property
中国的房地产

Popping the question
问题突现

China’s bubbly property markets have not burst. Yet
中国房地产市场的泡沫仍未爆破，但迟早会的

Jun 16th 2011 | HONG KONG | from the print edition

BUBBLES are supposed to burst with an audible pop. But in the snap and crackle of the Chinese housing market, it is hard to hear anything clearly. On June 9th the Wall Street Journal put its ear to the ground and declared that “the great property bubble of China may be popping”. It pointed out that prices had fallen by 4.9% in the year to April in nine big cities tracked by Rosealea Yao of GaveKal Dragonomics, a consultancy. Ms Yao herself thinks a “correction” in the next six months is inevitable. But she argues that it is still “a bit early to say the bubble is bursting”.

泡沫爆破时本应是有声的。中国房地产市场虽是噼里啪啦地好不喧闹，却很难听清个中详况。6月9日，华尔街日报侧耳倾听了一番后发表说“中国巨大的房产泡沫也许正在爆破”。该报指出，今年截至4月九大城市的房产价格下降了4.9%，这是一家咨询机构GaveKal Dragonomics的Rosealea Yao所掌握到的信息。Ms Yao认为在未来6个月内房产市场必将迎来一段调整期。但她也认为，现在说泡沫会爆破还为时过早。

Official figures released on June 14th added more noise. They suggested that builders started work on 19% more residential floorspace in May, compared with a year earlier, and sold 18% more. But the sales figures were flattered by comparison with May 2010, an unusually slow month following a government clampdown on speculative homebuying a few weeks before. And the starts figures may have picked up the government’s drive to build more affordable housing.

6月14日发布的官方数据让喧闹之声更起。这些数据表明，承建商在5月开始动工的住宅建筑比起一年前的多出19%，售出的也增加了18%。但销售数据与2010年5月时比起来算是比较可喜的了，那个月正逢政府打压房产买卖投资的几个星期后，销售形势出奇地滞慢。而此段开头的那个数字也许会让中国政府重拾建造更多经济适用房的劲头。