经济学人下载:揭秘中国消费者

Home Depot “didn’t understand the market for home decoration,” says Ben Cavender at China Market Research in Shanghai. Chinese people typically have no garages in which to store tools. And there are legions of poor people who will paint and decorate for low wages. The middle classes tend to hire decoration companies, which subcontract to whichever construction firm pays the best kickbacks. At the beginning of this year Home Depot closed its last shop in Beijing. It now has only seven stores on the Chinese mainland.
CMR中国市场研究公司（CMR位于上海的一家市场研究、战略管理公司，总部中国上海）Ben Cavender说，家得宝“不懂家装市场”。中国人没有堆放工具的车库。中国有很多穷人愿意以极低的报酬刷墙。中产阶级更愿意请家装公司，转包给回扣最好的建筑公司。今年初家得宝关闭最后一家位于北京店。现在家得宝在中国大陆只有7家店。

In a recent report on market dynamics and a profile of the Chinese consumer, Bernstein Research offers several tips to help Western consumer-goods firms profit from the “second consumer revolution”. Don’t offer too many brands: offer only a few, but produce in quantity to exploit economies of scale. Keep improving your products and (crucially) the packaging; otherwise you won’t keep pace with such a fast-changing market. Build an efficient distribution network early on—delivering goods to inland shelves is hard. And court talent tenaciously. Few employees are loyal, and few want to work in the countryside, even if they were born there. Finally, be patient. It may be years before your Chinese operations make money.
Bernstein Research伯恩斯坦研究公司在一份市场分析报告和中国消费者资料中，向西方企业提供了几个在“第二次消费者革命”的盈利妙方。不要推出太多品牌：只推出一些，但是产量力争取得规模效应。坚持改进产品和（至关重要的）包装，否则就跟不上瞬息万变的市场。尽早建立有效的销售网络—把产品放在内地货架不容易。坚持吸引人才。没有员工是从一而终的，没人愿意在乡下工作，j即使生在乡下。最后一点，请耐心，外企在中国开始盈利可能需要好几年。

Bernstein could have added: beware. The rules in China are still being written. Different arms of government may interpret them differently (see next article). And if someone in power changes his mind, there is not much you can do about it.
伯恩斯坦公司该添上：谨慎行事。中国法规尚在完善中。政府不同部门可能进行不同干预。（见下文）。如果当权者改变主意，就很难动摇了。

Will the Chinese government allow Nestle to buy Hsu Fu Chi? In 2009 it rejected a $2.4 billion bid by Coca-Cola to buy Huiyan Juice Group, a drinks firm, for no apparent reason. Analysts say that this is unlikely to happen again, however. “The company is not strategically important and together Nestle and Hsu Fu Chi would control only about 5% of the market,” says Jon Cox at Kepler Capital Markets in Zurich. As the world’s largest chocolate-maker Nestle has high hopes for a market of more than a billion people who currently eat shamefully little chocolate.
中国政府会允许雀巢收购徐福记吗？2009年政府拒绝了可口可乐24亿美元收购汇源果汁集团，没有明显原因。但是，分析家认为这种事不会再发生了。Kepler Capital Markets开普勒资本市场公司苏黎世分部Jon Cox 认为“徐福记没有战略重要性，而且雀巢加上徐福记也只能控制大约5%的市场。”作为世界最大巧克力制造商，雀巢对中国这块有超过十亿人口的市场寄予厚望，中国目前巧克力消费太少了，这就太寒酸了。

Much could go wrong. Many economists think Chinese households save too much. Some fear a property bubble or a banking crisis. The risks of selling consumer goods in China are immense. But so is the opportunity cost of staying away.
中国市场歧路也多。很多经济学家觉得中国居民储蓄太多。一些人担心房地产泡沫或者银行信用危机。在中国卖消费品风险是很大的。但如果不出手，可能失去的机会也很多。