经济学人下载:中国当小心中等收入困境

Growth prospects
中国的经济发展前景

Beware the middle-income trap
中国当小心中等收入困境

China’s roaring growth cannot last indefinitely
中国经济的蓬勃发展无法永远持续下去

Jun 23rd 2011 | from the print edition

But will they consume enough? 中等收入家庭能够撑起足够的消费吗？

CHINA’S LEADERS ARE usually shy of telling things as they are, but the prime minister, Wen Jiabao, put it bluntly when he described China’s economy in 2007 as “unstable, unbalanced, unco-ordinated and unsustainable”. Some foreigners may extol China’s handling of the global financial crisis, but Mr Wen has stuck to his guns. The phrase even crops up in China’s recently adopted five-year economic plan, standing out as an indirect admission of the failings of his own administration and as a marker for the next.

中国领导人谈论中国的情况时常常羞羞涩涩，但是温家宝总理在谈到2007年中国的经济发展时却很直截了当的认为是“不稳定、不平衡、不协调、不可持续”。有些外国人也许会称道中国很好的应对了全球金融危机，但是温家宝总理却坚持了自己的立场看法。他关于2007年中国经济的表述甚至出现在中国最近出台的经济发展“十二五”计划里面，这等于间接承认了他在自己任内有些问题解决得不是很好，可以作为下一届政府的前车之鉴。

For all its problems, China in the coming 10-15 years is still likely to reach several symbolic milestones. The IMF predicts that in 2016 it will become the world’s largest economy on a purchasing-power-parity basis. The Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister organisation of this newspaper, reckons that on the basis of market exchange rates China will attain that glory in 2020. By the end of this decade, according to Daiwa Securities, GDP per person in Shanghai, China’s richest city, could be almost the same as the average for America in 2009.

尽管存在问题，中国在接下来十到十五年里还是很有可能实现某些具有象征意义的里程碑式的发展。国际货币基金组织预言，以购买力平价计算，到2016年中国将成为世界最大的经济体。本刊的兄弟机构“经济学家资讯中心”认为，按照市场汇率计算，中国将于2020年获得那份荣誉。根据大和证券公司估计，到这个十年（2010－2020）末，中国最富有的城市上海的人均国内生产总值将几乎与美国在2009年的人均国内生产总值持平。