经济学人下载:中国当小心中等收入困境

And for all the bubbliness of China’s property market and the reckless spending of local governments, the country will probably avoid a crippling debt crisis. China has foreign-exchange reserves of more than $3 trillion and ran a modest budget deficit of 2.5% of GDP last year. Its worries are longer-term. The economy will certainly begin to slow in the next few years after three decades of nearly 10% average annual growth. Exports will be constrained by depressed Western markets, and investments in fixed assets will produce diminishing returns. But the slowdown will be less pronounced if the government succeeds in boosting consumption as a new growth engine.

尽管房地产市场存在泡沫，还有地方政府不计后果的支出，但是中国很可能能够避免严重损害经济的债务危机。中国拥有超过三万亿美元的外汇储备，而去年的财政只是适度赤字，维持在国内生产总值的2.5%。中国的担忧是更长远的。中国经济以接近10%的年平均增长率已经持续增长了三十年，接下去几年里，中国经济增长肯定会开始放缓。颓靡的西方市场将限制其出口，而固定资产投资的收益也会减少。但是如果中国政府能够成功刺激国内消费这一新的增长引擎，经济放缓将不会很明显。

Arthur Kroeber of GK Dragonomics, a consultancy, says the country still enjoys a considerable tailwind from urbanisation and a huge potential for productivity gains as it adopts new technology. He says a scattering of white-elephant projects (including the odd ghost-town of uninhabited new housing and office developments) does not concern him: “There’s no question that there are excesses, but the basic thing they are doing is sensible.” Louis Kuijs of the World Bank agrees. He sees the trend growth rate easing over the coming decade, but not dramatically. New infrastructure is generally being put to good use. Even though investment as a proportion of GDP is high, China’s accumulated investment in fixed assets is still low. Real wages have been rising strongly, which should help boost consumption. Standard Chartered, a bank, says that although China’s public debt is considerably higher than the 17% of GDP officially cited, it remains manageable. Even after allowing for bad loans to local-government investment companies, it runs at 80% of GDP, the bank estimates, about the same as Britain’s last year and well below Greece’s.

中国龙经济咨询公司的阿瑟﹒克罗伯指出，中国还可乘上城市化的顺风而且新技术的采用将使它拥有提高生产效率的巨大潜力。他说为数不多的几个项目工程浩大但是还没有实际用处并不让他感到担忧（包括建设了奇怪的“鬼城”，新建的住宅和办公楼里空无一人）：“过剩无疑是存在的，但是他们正在进行的基础建设是有意义的。”世界银行的高路易对此表示赞同。他看到在接下来十年里中国的经济增长有放缓的趋势，但是不会迅速放缓。新建的基础设施总体上得到很好利用。虽然当前投资占国内生产总值的比例很高，但是中国累积的固定资产投资仍然不多。居民实际收入的强劲增长，将有助于刺激消费。渣打银行说虽然中国的国债水平远高于政府所称的达到国内生产总值的17%，但是仍然在可控的范围之内。即使考虑地方政府投资平台的不良贷款，国债占国内生产总值的比例在80%，渣打银行估计，与英国去年的国债水平相当，而远低于希腊。

Chinese leaders are perennial worriers about inflation, not least because of its role in fuelling the discontent that led to the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989. But even though it rose to 5.5% in May, considerably above the government’s 4% target for the year, it shows little sign as yet of returning to previous highs of about 20% in 1988 and more than 25% in 1994. It also has a useful political side-effect, easing some of China’s tension with America over the value of its currency. America’s Treasury says that because of the higher inflation rate in China, the yuan is in effect appreciating against the dollar by more than 10% a year. Chinese leaders have been debating whether to push interest rates higher, but Mr Kuijs says Chinese policymakers have become more tolerant of medium rates of inflation.

中国的领导人长期担心通货膨胀，尤其是当年通货膨胀增加了人们的不满情绪，引发了1989的“天安门抗议事件”。尽管五月里通胀率上升到5.5%，远高于政府今年设定的4%的目标，但是至今没有迹象表明通胀率将回到1988年的20%或者1994的超过25%的历史高点。这同时会产生有利的政治影响，可以缓解中美之间关于人民币币值问题的紧张关系。美国财政部说由于中国的高通胀率，人民币实际上每年相对美元升值超过10%。中国领导人一直在争论是否要进一步提高利率，但是高路易先生说，中国的政策制定者已经能够更多的容忍适度的通胀。