经济学人下载:下降星座-战神火星

For Barack Obama, these signs of Republican softening are a godsend. Many in his own party hate the war in Afghanistan. Some were aghast when, in 2009, he ordered the deployment of 33,000 more troops in an Iraq-style “surge”. He always planned to announce the return of some of them this summer. But too fast a withdrawal would have exposed him to charges of wavering against al-Qaeda. Now the Republicans’ own wobbles, the killing of Osama bin Laden, the public’s spreading war fatigue and the transfer of the gung-ho General David Petraeus from Afghanistan to the CIA have given the president unexpected flexibility.

对于奥巴马来说，共和党态度软化的迹象乃天赐良机。很多民主党人本来就痛恨阿富汗战争。2009年奥巴马命令效仿伊拉克的增兵计划向阿富汗增兵3万3千人，当时很多民主党都无比惊愕。奥巴马一直计划今年夏天宣布撤回部分人员，但是撤兵太快的话会被指责面对基地组织不够坚定。现在因为共和党态度动摇，本拉登被击毙，公众厌战情绪蔓延，好战的大卫·彼得雷乌斯将军从阿富汗调到了中情局，总统获得不期而至的更大政策空间。

On June 22nd Mr Obama announced that all the surge troops will be out by the end of next summer. This will leave about 68,000 behind, and Mr Obama where he wants to be as the 2012 election nears: out of the “dumb” war in Iraq and carefully but visibly winding down (see Banyan) the one in Afghanistan. The tide of war is receding, says Mr Obama; now it is time for nation-building at home, “to reclaim the American dream”.

6月22日，奥巴马宣布明年夏天以前增兵人员将全部撤出阿富汗，这意味着届时将有6万8千人留在阿富汗，奥巴马也将为备战2012年大选获得更有利的地位：退出了“愚蠢的”伊拉克战争，谨慎而明显地缩小阿富汗战争规模。用奥巴马的话说：战争之潮正在退却，是时候进行国内建设，“重拾美国梦了”。

At home, however, the least costly of America’s wars, the one in Libya, is turning into a serious headache. Mr Obama’s grounds for intervening were simple enough. Only America had the means to stop Colonel Qaddafi from perpetrating a massacre in Benghazi. But this war was never popular. Many Democrats, traumatised by Iraq, say that such ventures are bound to fail, however noble the cause. Many Republicans hold that the nobility of the cause is itself the problem. With no vital American interest at stake, argues Michele Bachmann, another of the Republicans’ presidential candidates, the “Obama doctrine” has set a precedent for American intervention in “one country after another”.

但是在国内，美国战事中规模最小的利比亚战争却开始成为最令人头疼的问题。奥巴马干预利比亚的理由很简单：只有美国有能力阻止卡扎菲上校在班加西进行种族大屠杀。但是这场战争从来就不受欢迎。很多民主党人让伊拉克战争伤透了心，认为战争不论初衷多么高尚，最后注定只能失败。很多共和党人则认为这个崇高的目的才正是问题所在。共和党的另一个总统竞选人米歇尔·巴赫曼说，美国的核心利益没有受到直接威胁就参战，这一“奥巴马原则”为美国干预“一个又一个”国家开了个坏头。

Going into one country after another is in fact the last thing on the mind of this hyper-cautious president. No American drones are stopping the slaughter in Syria. Even in Libya Mr Obama was a reluctant warrior. He acted only when Benghazi was on the brink of falling, and only after securing cover and help from NATO, the UN and the Arab League. He also insisted that America’s European allies, who had goaded him into the war, should take over the chief responsibility for it in short order. If Libya was going to end in a mess, the president who inherited the messes in Iraq and Afghanistan wanted someone else to be in charge of it.

这位超级谨慎的总统可完全不想干预一个又一个国家。美国没有派无人机阻止叙利亚的大屠杀，参加利比亚战争奥巴马是心不甘情不愿，仅仅在班加西快陷落时，而且在获得了北约、联合国和阿拉伯国家联盟的掩护和支持后，他才采取行动。他还一直坚持要求推动美国加入战争的欧洲盟友不久后应接手美国承担主要职责。如果利比亚陷入混乱，那么这个继承了伊拉克和阿富汗混乱局面的总统希望其他人能继承利比亚。