经济学人下载:无望的日本政治

This week Mr Kan said he had no intention of dissolving parliament early, arguing that the public would not like it and that it would be better to wait until 2013. Even that did not entirely quash rumours that he may use the anniversary on August 6th of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima to make a dramatic anti-nuclear gesture.

本周，菅直人谈到他无意提早解散议会，公众也不希望这样，最好能维持到2013年。而对于流言，仍未平息，菅直人可能会在8月6日广岛核爆纪念日上表明自己反核的态度。

A snap election would seem out of character. But Mr Kan has still not set a date for his departure. At the end of June he listed three conditions he wanted met before standing down. One was fulfilled this week, with the passage of a ¥2 trillion ($26 billion) supplementary budget to help pay for recovery from the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March. There is also some progress on the second condition, a law covering the setting of feed-in tariffs for electricity, to encourage the development of renewable energy.

提前大选，让人出乎意料。但是菅直人依然没有宣布下台时间。六月底，他向国会提出了下台的三个要求。第一，本周内需完成2万亿日元（260亿美元）的追加预算，用于三月份发生的破坏性地震和海啸的重建。第二，通过电网回购法律，以鼓励新型能源的发展。

The third, passage of legislation enabling the government to borrow to finance its deficit, may be trickier. In an echo of the showdown in Washington, DC, the LDP wants Mr Kan to drop some of the DPJ’s spending promises—such as an allowance for raising children, and the abolition of expressway tolls and tuition fees for public high schools.

第三个要求实施起来相对复杂，是通过立法允许政府借债以弥补赤字。而美国两党也在为债务问题进行博弈，自民党希望菅直人能放弃民主党在一些问题上的开支——提供孩子的抚养津贴，取消高速公路收费和公立学校的学费。

Even if that dispute is resolved, Mr Kan may still try to hang on after the end of this parliamentary session on August 31st. This seems remarkable. The political class loathes him; the press relentlessly reviles him; business despises him; and voters want him to go. His approval rating has plummeted to below 20%.

即使该条件得以满足，8月31日的国会议会结束时，菅直人仍然不会下台。这看起来似乎不太寻常。政客们不喜欢他，媒体不遗余力的指责他，企业界看不起他，选民们也希望他下台，而他的支持率已经下降到20%。

One of his advisers, however, points out that most other politicians score even lower in the polls. Mr Kan’s unpopularity is a symptom of a deeper problem: a loss of faith in politics generally. Partisan and intra-party bickering at a time of national emergency has further battered politics’ reputation. Mr Kan’s government is widely seen as having been inept in disaster-management, and its standing will sink deeper if, as many expect, scares about nuclear-tainted food worsen.

然而，他的一位顾问就指出，其他大多数政客的支持率比他还低。菅直人不受欢迎的现象反映出一个深层次的问题：公众普遍对政府失去信心。在全国紧要关头，党派及各党内部的争斗损坏了政府的信誉。菅直人的政府被公众指责为救灾不力，很多人担心，若食物遭核辐射，他的支持率会再下降。