经济学人下载:美国经济面临二次探底?

Does it have to be this way? Not necessarily. Barack Obama or one of his Republican challengers may yet discover the courage to tell the truth about the American economy in next year’s presidential election. But given the politicians’ current uselessness, the only institution with the power to avert danger is the Federal Reserve. With interest rates so low, that means more quantitative easing. Printing more money is justifiable in the circumstances, but still a tool offering diminishing returns. Fiscal help would have been much better.

情况一定会如此吗？也不一定。奥巴马或者共和党的总统候选人可能会在下次大选中找到勇气，说出美国经济的真相。但是考虑到目前政客们的无用，唯一有能力避免二次探底危险的机构就是美联储。利率如此之低，这就意味着进一步量化宽松。印钞票在这种情况下也无可厚非，但是采用这种办法的回报在减少。如果之前能采取财政政策，情况就会好很多了。

If America does manage to avoid recession and slowly begins to pull out of this mire, it will be testimony to its underlying strengths. It still has huge advantages over other rich countries: a younger, less-taxed population, a more innovative economy and, for now at least, the dollar as the global reserve currency. If only it had the political leaders to match, its chance of avoiding recession would be far better than one in two.

如果美国能够避免衰退，慢慢爬出泥沼，这将是它内在力量的证明。毕竟比起其他富国，美国还是有优势的：年轻、低税、富有创造力，美元又是全球储备货币。如果政客们也同样给力就好了，那样避免经济衰退的可能性就会远高于50%。