经济学人下载:妙招告急-日本能源问题

Asked whether the reactor was damaged by the quake itself (as distinct from the tsunami that followed it), Mr Nishizawa says it is unclear: we must wait for a report in November. This question matters. If the reactors in quake-prone Japan are not quake-proof, nuclear power may not be safe. An official at a nuclear regulator says there is evidence that the quake did indeed damage the reactor.

对于‘地震是否为摧毁反应堆元凶’这个问题（与随后的海啸损害不同），Toshio Nishizawa的回答是“不清楚”，说要等到11月报告出台后，方才清楚。地震是不是元凶这个问题至关重要。日本这么一个地震频发的国家，倘若反应堆不抗震，那么核能也许就不安全。核能监管部门的一名官员表示，有证据表明的确是地震摧毁了反应堆。

Since the disaster, Japanese people have made heroic efforts to save energy. Households snuffed out lights and unplugged their heated toilet seats. Big companies reduced their energy use by 15% (on pain of fines). Many began the workday earlier or switched to night shifts. The car industry took Thursdays and Fridays off and toiled at weekends, when electricity demand is lower. In TEPCO’s region (around Tokyo), peak usage fell to 49 gigawatts, from 60 gigawatts last year. Everyone expected blackouts; none occurred. On September 9th, as the summer’s heat faded, the government announced an end to setsuden.

灾难过后,日本民众做出巨大努力节省能源。家家户户熄掉电灯，关掉便桶加热器。大公司纷纷砍掉了15%的能耗（震慑于罚款）。不少日本人要么工作日早早起床工作，要么转而倒夜班。由于周末电力需求不那么紧张，汽车工业周四周五停工，周六周日苦干。今年，东电辖区（东京地区）的高峰用电量从去年同期的60千兆瓦下降到49千兆瓦。人人都做好了大面积停电的准备，却多虑了。9月9日，鉴于酷暑散去，日本政府宣布“能源节约”告一段落。

Yet Japan’s energy problems are far from resolved. If the nuclear freeze lasts for a year, it will cut GDP by an estimated 3.6% and destroy almost 200,000 jobs. Meanwhile, three-fifths of the public say they have little confidence in nuclear power.

然而，日本能源危机还远远没有解决。倘若到明年3月，核能仍未能重启的话，预计，GDP将会因此下滑3.6%，20万工作岗位也会随之灰飞烟灭。与此同时，3/5的民众对核能没什么信心。

Japan needs a robust and diverse energy industry. Instead it has ten regional monopolies (TEPCO is one), which hog 97% of the market for electricity generation and transmission. Residential consumers pay nearly twice as much as Americans and three times as much as South Koreans (see chart). After modest deregulation began for big commercial users a decade ago, prices plummeted by 16% between 1999 and 2005. Yet lacking political support, the reforms went into reverse.

日本需要一个强劲而又多元化的能源产业。但事与愿违，却崛起了10家区域垄断电力集团（东京电力公司是其中之一），他们把持着全国97%的发电输电市场份额。日本家庭用户上缴的电费几乎是美国人的2倍，韩国人的3倍（见图表）。十年前，政府开始实施针对大型商业用户的供电适度宽松政策，使得电价在1999到2005年间下滑了16%。然而由于缺少政治支持，供电改革走上回头路。