经济学人下载:鲍比一举夺魁 Bobby Laps the Field

The Louisiana governor’s race
路易斯安那州州长竞选

Bobby laps the field
鲍比一举夺魁

Hints of a grander future in a comfortable victory
获胜轻而易举，美好未来初露端倪
 
THREE days before Louisianans headed to the polls on October 22nd, the leading Democratic candidate for governor, Tara Hollis, told an audience in the low double digits at a campaign event, “I’m David, and I don’t mind taking on Goliath.” Goliath in this case was Bobby Jindal, the overwhelmingly popular Republican incumbent. Mrs Hollis’s sentiment was admirable, but David at least had a sling.

路易斯安那州于10月22日举行州长投票选举。在这三天前的一次竞选活动中，最有希望的民主党人塔拉?侯丽斯（Tara Hollis）的得票数仅有可怜的两位数，但她告诉现场参加活动的人：“我就是大卫，我不怕歌利亚[注1]决一雌雄。”她所指的歌利亚便是共和党炙手可热的候选人鲍比?金达尔（Bobby Jindal）。侯丽斯的宣言令人敬佩，不过，大卫至少还有一根机弦[注2]。

In political terms, Mrs Hollis—a teacher from northern Louisiana galvanised into political action when her husband, who taught at the same school, was sacked—lacked even that. By her own admission she was a default candidate, becoming the Democratic front-runner because “no one else stepped forward—everyone thought someone would.” She complained of receiving no help from the national party: “They view Louisiana as a lost cause.” In early October Mr Jindal had over $6m on hand; Mrs Hollis had $384 (and 24 cents).

侯丽斯曾是北路易斯安那州一名教师，在与她同所学校任教的丈夫被解雇后，她投身政治运动。就政治层面而言，她的确缺少这样的“机弦”。她自己承认，她是那只出头鸟，之所以代表民主党参选是因为“没人愿意出这个风头——每人都希望别人挺身而出。”对于民主党未向她提供任何帮助一事，她也表达了自己的不满：“他们认为民主党在路易斯安那州的竞选注定失败。”十月初，金达尔手头有600万美元的竞选资金，而侯丽斯只有384美元（外加24美分）。

At her event Mrs Hollis spoke not of winning, but of holding Mr Jindal below 50%. Louisiana’s open-primary system pits all candidates against each other. If none wins an outright majority, the two leading candidates compete in a run-off election (if a candidate wins a majority, he wins the contest). But even in that modest goal she failed: Mr Jindal took 66% of the vote, and Mrs Hollis finished a distant second of ten candidates, with 18%. No other candidate cracked 5%. Mr Jindal’s victory eclipsed the record set by Edwin Edwards, a four-term governor who once boasted that the only way he could lose an election would be if he were caught in bed “with either a dead girl or a live boy”.

侯丽斯参选时曾表示，她的目标并非胜出，而是使得金达尔的得票率保持在50%以下。在路易斯安那州的开放预选制度下，所有候选人针锋相对。如果第一轮投票没有候选者获得绝对多数的投票，那么票数领先的两名候选人将在第二轮投票中决一死战（如果其中一名候选人赢得大多数投票，他就赢得了这场竞选）。但即使是如此保守的一个目标，侯丽斯也未能达到：金达尔获得了66%的投票率。尽管侯丽斯的得票率在10名候选者中位列第二，但仍与金达尔相距甚远——她仅有18%。其余候选人中没有一人的得票率突破了5%。金达尔的胜利使得爱德文?爱德华兹（Edwin Edwards）也相形见绌。爱德华兹担任了四届路易斯安那州州长，他曾宣称，使他失掉竞选的唯一可能便是抓到他“与一具女尸或一名男孩”捉奸在床。

Also setting a record was the low turnout of not quite 36%. This was perhaps unsurprising, as the election was held on a Saturday, and Mr Jindal’s overwhelming popularity, not to mention his crushing financial advantage, made his victory an all-but-foregone conclusion. He is an unusual figure in Louisiana politics: Ivy League educated, young and born in Baton Rouge just months after his parents emigrated there from Punjab. When he was elected four years ago, at 36, he was the youngest governor and the only Indian-American one (in 2010 South Carolina elected Nikki Haley, born to Punjabi parents six months after Mr Jindal). He has pushed hard for ethics reform; no mean feat in a state that, as one former congressman put it, is half underwater and half under indictment.

同样创下纪录的，还有不到路易斯安那州人数36%的投票人数。这或许不足为奇，因为竞选是在周六举行的，此外，金达尔的广受欢迎，更别提他的经济优势，都使他赢得竞选几乎成了探囊取物。在路易斯安那州的政治家里，他算得上卓尔不群：毕业于常春藤盟校，年轻有为，在其父母从旁遮普移民到美国几个月后，他在路州首府巴吞鲁日出生。四年前，他赢得路州州长竞选时，年仅36岁，成为了美国最年轻同时也是唯一一位印裔州长[2010年，南卡罗莱纳州选举妮可?哈雷（Nikki Haley）为州长，父母也是来自旁遮普的她在金达尔赢得选举后的6个月也成功当选]。金达尔力推道德规范改革；正如一位前国会会员所评，在一个被洪灾和官司困扰的州，这算是了不起的成就了。

Mr Jindal won every parish—taking 38% of the vote even in heavily Democratic New Orleans—and exceeded his victory four years ago by 12 points. A couple of the other races on the ballot—particularly for lieutenant-governor—were more hotly contested, but in the end Republicans won them all. They now hold every statewide office save one Senate seat in Congress, to which Mary Landrieu perilously clings.

金达尔在路州各行政区的投票中都已胜出——甚至在民主党候选人较多的新奥尔良也获得了38%的投票率——其获得的平均投票率较四年前高出12个百分点。而其他竞选中——尤其是副州长竞选中——竞争更为激烈，不过最终仍是共和党大获全胜。除了玛丽?兰德鲁（Mary Landrieu）难以保住的一个国会议员席位外，共和党已掌控了各州政府。

The question now is how long Mr Jindal remains in office. If Republicans win the presidency, he could find himself in the cabinet. If Rick Perry wins the nomination, he could find himself sharing the ticket: he endorsed Mr Perry early and enthusiastically. Should Barack Obama win, Mr Jindal could easily snatch that one last Senate seat from Ms Landrieu. Mr Jindal says he plans to serve out his full term as governor. Such plans are easily changed.

当前问题是，金达尔的州长任期会有多长。如果共和党赢得总统大选，他也许就能跻身内阁。如果瑞奇?佩里（Rick Perry）赢得总统候选人提名，金达尔也许也能成为候选人之一：他一开始就全力支持佩里。如果巴拉克?奥巴马（Barack Obama）成功连任，金达尔也许就能轻易获得兰德鲁手中的议员席位。金达尔说他计划担任州长一职直至任期结束。不过，这种计划很容易就改弦易辙。