经济学人:共和党参选

THE race for the Republican presidential nomination has followed a consistent pattern. Every month or so a candidate emerges from the pack to threaten Mitt Romney’s lead, only to drop back after a week or two. It used to be a new challenger each time: Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry and so on. Lately, it has been the same man periodically snapping at Mr Romney’s heels before falling behind again: Rick Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania. This week Mr Santorum flubbed yet another chance to overtake Mr Romney, by losing the primary in Illinois. That is great news for Mr Romney.
共和党人参选总统提名的方式总是千篇一律。每个月都会从党内冒出一个会对罗姆尼的领先地位造成威胁的候选人，但只是为了一两个星期后被罗姆尼甩在身后。以前这样的候选人每每都会成为一个新的挑战：米歇尔贝克曼，赫尔曼凯因，里克派瑞等等。后来的候选人渐渐沦为定期出现的人偶，只是为了在又一次落后之前徒劳地咬住罗姆尼前进的车轮，比如宾夕法尼亚州的前议员里克桑托勒姆。本周桑托勒姆伊利诺斯州初选失利，失去了超越罗姆尼的机会。不过这对罗姆尼来说却是个好消息。

After Georgia, Illinois is the biggest prize yet, accounting for 69 of 2,286 delegates to the Republican convention in August, at which the nominee will formally be selected. Mr Romney won by a big margin: 47% to 35%. Because of the complicated electoral rules in Illinois and many other states, that will bring him at least two-thirds of the delegates from the state. It also marks the first time that he has drubbed Mr Santorum in the Midwest, after narrow wins in Michigan and Ohio and defeats in Iowa and Minnesota.
伊利诺斯州是继乔治亚州之后最重要的选区，在2286名参加八月举办的共和党大会的代表中，有69名都来自伊利诺斯州，届时大会将正式选出提名者。罗姆尼以47%比35%的绝对优势大获全胜。 多亏了伊利诺斯和其他州复杂的选举规则，罗姆尼将获得至少三分之二的伊利诺斯州代表的支持。这也标志着在经历了密歇根，俄亥俄的险胜以及爱荷华，明尼苏达的失败之后，罗姆尼首次在中西部地区打败了桑托勒姆。

Mr Santorum did his best to expand his appeal beyond the most conservative voters, talking in histrionic terms about the need for smaller government. “This is the most important election of your lifetime,” he intoned at a rally in Peoria, the supposed navel of middle America. “Freedom [is] at stake,” he tweeted on the morning of the primary. But he had already fluffed his lines, appearing to suggest that the unemployment rate was not that important (compared with preserving America’s founding principles, he meant).
就冲他曾经煽情地说过缩减政府规模的必要性这一点，桑托勒姆在向保守选民施展魅力方面也算尽心尽力了。“这是你们有生之年最重要的选举”，桑托勒姆曾在美国中部的中心城市皮奥利亚的某个集会上如是说道。他曾在初选的早晨情绪激昂的说“自由就要被剥夺”。但是他说错了话，因为他曾暗示失业率并不那么重要（其实他的意思相较于死守美国的基本准则来说，失业率不太重要）

Disappointingly for Mr Santorum, Peorians seemed to have faith in Mr Romney’s ability to repair the economy. People for whom that was the most important issue voted for him overwhelmingly, according to exit polls. They also had misgivings about Mr Santorum’s emphasis on social issues. At an event he held also in Peoria, a veteran said of his fixation with abortion: “It’s the last thing we should care about. If we keep spending, we are going to end up like Greece.” Yet like a moth to the flame Mr Santorum keeps returning to such topics, and all the controversy that comes with them. During a speech he gave at a religious school in the Chicago suburbs, two men in the audience stood up and kissed, prompting predictable hostility from the crowd.
皮奥利亚的人民抱着对桑托勒姆的失望之情转而寄希望于罗姆尼能够挽救萎靡的经济。据投票后民调显示，那些把失业率视为重中之重的人都坚定地把票投给了罗姆尼。他们同样误解了桑托勒姆强调的社会问题。在另一场皮奥利亚的集会上，一个退伍老兵表示自己支持终止计划：“这是最后一件值得我们关注的事，如果我们继续挥霍，下场会和希腊一样惨。”于是桑托勒姆如飞蛾扑火一般又回到了这类话题，以及这类话题所来了种种争议上。 他曾在芝加哥郊区的一所教会学校讲话，其间两个男人从观众席里站起来拥吻，毫不意外地招来了观众的反感。

Mr Romney has won over half of the delegates awarded so far. That pace, if sustained, will be more than enough to secure him the nomination outright, although probably not before the final primaries in May and June. His rivals, by contrast, would need to improve their showing dramatically, winning the lion’s share of the remaining delegates simply to deny Mr Romney outright victory. And they would have to do that in unfavourable states like Maryland, New York and California.
目前罗姆尼赢得了一半多的代表支持。如果这一良好态势得到保持，罗姆尼完全可以不费吹灰之力地赢得提名资格，至少在五六月的最后初选之前都没问题。相反，他的对手们要想获得余下的大部分代表支持来抹杀罗姆尼的的绝对优势的话，就必须好好练练怎么做秀。他们得在马里兰，纽约和加利福尼亚这类十分难缠的选区花功夫。

The prospects for the two other candidates, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, look hopeless; but neither of them shows any sign of being ready to concede. Both Mr Paul and Mr Santorum argue that they have actually won more delegates than estimated in the caucus states. This could be true (those delegates have not actually been assigned yet), but the difference would be far too small to alter the dynamics of the race. Mr Gingrich, for his part, seems to enjoy campaigning and to bear a grudge about how Mr Romney and an allied Super PAC ended his time in the sun with cloudbursts of negative advertising.
纽特金里奇和罗恩保罗这两位候选人的前景也十分黯淡。但是两个人都没有退缩的意思。保罗和桑托勒姆都认为自己实际赢得的代表人数要比决策会议上公布的多。这也不是没可能（因为那些代表还没有被指派。）但差距太小，不足以改变参选动态。金里奇似乎很喜欢参选，也很喜欢抱怨罗姆尼和同盟Super PAC是如何利用负面宣传这个晴天霹雳终结了自己阳光灿烂的的参选生涯的。

Moreover, even if Mr Romney’s nomination is in the bag barring some unexpected reversal, his position is hardly commanding. His biggest wins have tended to be in places that either vote reliably Democratic in presidential elections, such as Illinois and Massachusetts, or don’t vote at all, such as Guam and Puerto Rico (which gave him almost 90% of the vote on March 18th). He still struggles to win the support of poorer, less educated, more conservative and more religious voters. On March 24th he is likely to lose the next state to vote, Louisiana. His long, hard march to the nomination continues
即使不考虑罗姆尼在提名之路遇到的未知阻碍，他也很难保持遥遥领先的位置。他大获全胜的几个州要么是伊利诺斯州和马萨诸塞州这样忠诚地把票投给民主党的地区，要么就是关岛和波多黎各这样干脆不投票的地区（在3月18号，这些地区把90%的票都投给了罗姆尼）。他仍然在努力争取那些较贫困，受教育程度较低，更保守和受宗教影响更大的选民。他似乎在3月24四日又输掉了一个州的支持——路易斯安那。对于罗姆尼来说，提名之路漫漫而修远，仍需上下求索。