经济学人下载:移民政治学(2)

Nonetheless Mr Romney cheerfully joined in the denunciation of Mr Perry for his breach of party doctrine. By the same token, when Newt Gingrich, another candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, suggested that illegal immigrants of good character and long standing should be allowed to stay, Mr Romney attacked him too. He argues that life should be made so difficult for illegal immigrants that they will choose, in a horrible phrase, to “self-deport”. Democrats hope that all this will dent Mr Romney’s prospects among Hispanic voters, many of whom see Republican fulminations against illegal immigration as stony-hearted, if not racist. In a survey conducted last year on behalf of the Pew Hispanic Centre, two-thirds of Hispanic registered voters said they favoured the Democrats. Just 20% identified themselves as Republican. In March a Fox News Latino poll found that, in a head-to-head match-up, Mr Romney would carry just 14% of the Hispanic vote. Earlier polls had found Mr Romney doing better than that, but still considerably worse than the 31% John McCain managed to amass, even while losing in 2008, or the whopping 40% George W. Bush posted in 2004.
尽管罗姆尼兴高采烈得加入到指责佩里的队伍中去,称佩里违反了共和党的原则,出于同样的原因,罗姆尼也抨击纽特·金里奇,金里奇也是共和党总统候选提名人之一,他曾建议当局应该允许那些遵纪守法居住已久的非法移民留在美国.罗姆尼宣称应该让那些非法移民的日子不好过,然后用一个可怕的短语来说,他们就会选择"自我驱逐出境".民主党希望这一切会抹去西班牙裔美国选民对罗姆尼的希望,这些人中大多数认为共和党对非法移民的态度可谓铁石心肠,就快赶上民族主义者了.在一项由皮尤西裔研究中心主导的调查显示,已登记的西班牙裔美国选民中,有2/3的人更青睐民主党.只有20%的人认为自己是共和党.三月份福克斯新闻频道对拉丁美洲裔美国人进行的民调显示,一对一竞选的情况下,罗姆尼只能拿到西班牙裔选民手中14%的选票.先前的民调显示罗姆尼的表现会比这一数字好一些,但是仍然比起麦凯恩努力获得的31%支持率要差的多,尽管后者2008年失败了,更别提小布什2004年获得的40%的极高支持率了.

Hispanics made up 16% of the population in 2010, according to that year’s census. They are a fast-growing group, although a relatively large proportion of them are below voting age and even those eligible to vote are less assiduous about it than Anglos are. But they account for over 20% of the population in several swing states, including Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico. Democrats hope to make Arizona a swing state this year, thanks both to the 30% Hispanic share of the local population and to the acrimony inspired by the state’s immigration law. A recent poll put Mr Obama within two points of Mr Romney in the state, which has been a Republican stronghold recently—not least because of Mr McCain’s candidacy in 2008.
根据2010年的美国人口统计,西班牙裔美国人占美国总人口的16%.这群人人口增长速度很快,尽管他们当中相对较大比例的人的年龄低于投票年龄,甚至当中有投票权的人,对投票这件事也不如非拉丁裔白人那么积极.但在一些选情摇摆不定的州里,他们占据了超过总人口数的20%,这些州包括科罗拉多州,佛罗里达州,内华达州和新墨西哥州.民主党希望今年把亚利桑那州变成一个摇摆州,因为这里西班牙裔美国人占本地人口的30%,同时这里西班牙裔人对本州的移民法律极其不满.最近的一项民调显示,奥巴马在亚利桑那州的支持率只落后罗姆尼不到2%,很大程度上因为麦凯恩2008年竞选总统,这里直到最近都曾是共和党的坚垒.

The Romney campaign argues that immigration is not the only point of contention for Hispanic voters. Latinos suffer higher unemployment than the national average, and are more likely to be poor. Their incomes are still lower, on average, than when Mr Obama came into office. Even for Mexican-Americans, who make up nearly two-thirds of America’s Hispanic population and seem particularly suspicious of Mr Romney, immigration reform may matter less than jobs or schools.
罗姆尼竞选团队称移民问题并不是西班牙裔选民的唯一争论点.拉丁美洲裔美国人的失业率一直高于全国水平,而且也更贫穷.他们的平均收入,比奥巴马刚掌权的时候还要低.即使是占据了西班牙裔美国人2/3总人口的墨西哥裔美国人,似乎对于罗姆尼也有所怀疑,因为就业和教育比起移民政策改革更为重要.

Republicans have long tried to find common cause with Latino voters. They point out that, in some respects, Hispanics seem natural conservatives: religious, hard-working and with close family ties. There is even talk that Mr Romney might bolster his standing among Latinos by picking one as a running-mate—Marco Rubio, a senator from Florida, say, or Susana Martinez, the governor of New Mexico.
共和党一直都在尝试找到和拉丁美洲裔选民的共同目标.他们指出,在某些方面,西班牙裔人看上去是天然的保守党:他们虔诚,勤奋,关心家庭.甚至有这样一种说法,罗姆尼可能在拉丁美洲裔人里面挑选一位竞选拍档,想以此来在拉美裔选民中站稳脚跟,这位拍档可能是佛罗里达州的参议员马可·卢比奥,也可能是新墨西哥州州长苏珊娜·马丁内斯.

Since the immigration debate has such a nativist tone, however, Democrats are doubtful that Republicans can win over many Hispanic voters. “You can’t do it when at a very baseline level you make American citizens feel unwelcome in their own country,” says Joaquin Castro, a Democratic state representative from San Antonio, Texas. It will not help that in the middle of the campaign the Supreme Court will draw attention once again to the Republicans’ obstreperousness on the issue by ruling on the Arizona law.
因为关于移民问题的争论已带上了非常严重的本土主义色彩,民主党非常怀疑共和党能争取到许多拉丁裔选民的支持.,德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥市的民主党州众议员杰奎因·卡斯特罗说道, "当你让美国公民觉得在自己的国家里不受欢迎,你已经触及到他们的底线,这就无法争取他们的选票了". 当选举进行到一半时, 最高法院将对本案宣判, 到时目光将再次聚集在喋喋不休的共和党人上, 这对他们的选情并无帮助.