经济学人下载:路还长 Long life

Books and Arts; Book Review;
文艺；书评；

The future of Italy;Long life
意大利的未来；路还长

Good Italy, Bad Italy: Why Italy Must Conquer Its Demons to Face the Future. By Bill Emmott.
《兴盛的意大利，衰落的意大利——为什么意大利必须克服困难直面未来》比尔埃默特着。

Even after the latest euro rescue in Brussels, Italy remains a time bomb. Its public debt of close to ?2 trillion ($2.5 trillion) is the world's third biggest, making it too big to bail out. It has lost competitiveness. And its economy is stagnant: between 2001 and 2012 GDP shrank, a worse performance than any other rich country. Fortunately, as Bill Emmott notes in this book, Italy has since last November had a technocratic cabinet led by Mario Monti that is the country's first reforming government in years.
尽管在布鲁塞尔出台了最新欧元救助计划，但是意大利仍然是一个定时炸弹。它的公共债务总额多达2万亿欧元（2.5万亿美元），排名世界第三，公债规模如此之大是的很难对其纡困。自2001年至2012年意大利国内生产总值一直处于萎缩状态，和任何富裕的国家相比，这种糟糕的表现更反映出了其经济的不景气。就像比尔·埃默特在书里写的那样，幸运的是，自去年十一月马里奥·蒙蒂组建了一届技术型专家内阁，且是多年来首届改革型政府。

Mr Emmott, who was editor-in-chief of this newspaper from 1993 to 2006, has made Italy one of his specialist subjects, inspired partly by libel battles with Mr Monti's predecessor, Silvio Berlusconi. His excellent book is an updated English version of one published in Italian in 2010 under the title “Forza, Italia” (a pun on Mr Berlusconi's party and a football slogan, meaning “Go! Italy”). His thesis is better described by the new title: there are in reality two Italys.
从1993年到2006年间埃默特先生一直是一家报纸的总编辑，还成立了意大利专题，个中部分原因是与蒙蒂总理的前任西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼的流言之斗。他的畅销书是一本题为“加油，意大利”（一语双关——既指贝卢斯科尼的政党，又指足球口号，意为“加油！意大利”）更新的英文版，其曾在2010年于意大利出版。书的新标题更好地体现了他的主题：事实上有两个意大利。

This is often said of the north and south. Last year's 150th anniversary of Italian unification saw acid remarks about its having divided Africa, not united Italy. But Mr Emmott's division is not this one. Rather, he finds good and bad all over the country. On the good side he cites cases such as Mr Monti, young entrepreneurs, strong manufacturing (Italy is second only to Germany in Europe), a revitalised Fiat and Turin. On the bad, he offers Mr Berlusconi, organised crime and corruption, the public sector, red tape and Naples.
这就是通常所说的北意大利和南意大利。去年是纪念意大利统一150周年，一些尖酸刻薄评论表示意大利并不是统一，而是分裂了非洲。但是埃默特先生的划分并不是这个，相反，他发现整个国家都存在好的方面和坏的方面。在好的一方面，他举出了蒙蒂总理的例子，年轻的企业家们，强劲的制造业（在欧洲意大利仅次于德国），复兴的菲亚特和都灵。在坏的一方面，他举出了贝卢斯科尼总理的例子，有组织性的犯罪活动及贪污腐败，公共部门，繁文缛节和那不勒斯。

His story is supported by lively anecdotes of the people and firms he meets on his travels, many of them in the course of making a documentary film. It is refreshing to read so much that is positive about Italy amid the pervasive gloom: the fight against organised crime in the south, the exporting power of family firms in the north, the impact of Mr Monti's reforms. The author finds plenty of reasons for hope.
他的故事是由其在旅途中遇到的人和企业间生动的奇闻轶事所构成，许多故事还正制成了纪录片。在当下弥漫的悲观情绪中，看到这么多关于意大利的正面消息，的确使人振奋：与南意大利组织性犯罪的斗争，北意大利家族企业的出口竞争力，蒙蒂总理改革政策的影响。作者找到了很多能使人充满希望的理由。

Yet overall his book seems a touch too optimistic. Mr Monti is being as bold as he can, but he has lost popularity, some of his reforms have been watered down and his ability to do things is waning as next spring's election approaches. The anti-mafia movement in Sicily is heartening, but organised crime has spread to the north as well. Many young Italians are talented and hard-working, but too many deploy their talents abroad rather than at home.
然而总的来说他的书所持观点似乎有点太过乐观。尽管蒙蒂总理雄心勃勃，但是他已经尽失民意，随着下届春季选举的临近，他的一些改革政策已经被否决，并且他处理事情的能力也在衰退。西西里反黑手党运动虽振奋人心，但组织性犯罪活动同样遍及北意大利。许多年轻的意大利人既有天赋又勤奋努力，但是太多人都在国外施展才华而非国内。

Above all, the deep structural failings of Italy—an inefficient public sector, a poor demographic outlook, lousy universities, a calamitously slow judicial system—will take years to put right. The euro crisis has shown the urgent need for reforms, but by stunting growth it has also made them harder. And Italy has few liberals who genuinely believe in reform.
首先，意大利深层次结构上的不完善——效率低的公共部门，不乐观的人口结构前景，糟糕的高等院校，效率极低的司法体系，将需要数年时间才能恢复秩序。欧元危机已经表明对于改革的迫切需要，但是迟缓的经济使改革更艰难。意大利的自由党几乎没有真正相信改革的。

Early on Mr Emmott notes the spooky parallels between now and the early 1990s, when Italy's economic problems first became apparent. A promising start then turned into 20 wasted years, largely because of Mr Berlusconi's entry on to the political stage. The media mogul's era may be over (even that is not certain). But new populists are rising up, and the next election could be messy. Italy has yet to find its next saviour.
早先埃默特先生就注意到20世纪九十年代早期与现在竟是令人毛骨悚然的相似，都是意大利经济问题开始显现的时候。一个有前途的开端演变成了荒废的20年，很大程度上是因为贝卢斯科尼总理执政。媒体大亨的时代可能会结束（即使那并不确定）。但是新的平民主义者正在兴起，并且下一届选举可能会有麻烦。意大利有待找寻下一个救世主。