经济学人下载:空中交通系统现代化进程任重道远

Business Aviation Flight to the future
商业 航空 飞向未来

Modernising creaking air-traffic systems will be a huge task
空中交通系统现代化进程任重道远

THESE days a $15,000 car comes with GPS satellite navigation fitted as standard.
如今一辆价值15,000美元的车子配备GPS卫星导航系统已经是司空见惯。

But a $150m airliner still has to be guided through the skies by spoken instructions from a bloke with a radio in a control tower.
但是一架1.5亿美元的飞机却仍然要通过接受控制塔的无线电设备的语音指令航行。

That is because air-traffic management (ATM) systems are stuck in the 1950s.
其原因在于现行的空中交通管理系统（ATM）还停滞在20世纪50年代。

Instead of flying straight, planes must zigzag from one ground beacon to the next, and ascend and descend in steps, at each stage obtaining permission from the ground.
从一个地面信标到另一个， 飞机必须蜿蜒飞行而不是直线飞行，一会升一会降，而这每一个步骤飞机都需要从地面取得许可。

The controllers' radar only shows planes' approximate positions, so they must space them well apart.
并且，因为雷达只显示飞机的大概位置，所以控制员必须从很远的地方来定位。

All this wastes fuel and causes congestion and delays.
所有这些都导致了燃油的浪费，还会造成交通拥堵和延误。

The average flight in European airspace is 50km (31 miles) longer than it need be.
在欧洲，飞机运行的距离平均都要比实际所需距离长50公里（31英里）。

So the world's aviation authorities are seeking to modernise the whole system, streamlining the routing of flights and providing much more real-time information to pilots and controllers.
因此，全世界的航空当局正致力于革新整个航空系统，使航行路线更为顺畅，提供飞行员和管制员更加及时的信息。

This could lead to huge orders for electronics firms, which is why, in his recent jobs speech, President Barack Obama called for $1 billion of extra cash to speed up America's ATM-modernisation project, NextGen.
电子工业也会紧跟着收到巨额订单，这就是为什么奥巴马总统在最近的就业报告中提出要用额外的10亿美元来加速发展美国的航空交通管理系统现代化项目 － 下一代（NexGen)。

A study by consultants from McKinsey of Europe's equivalent project, SESAR, finds that its costs should be dwarfed by the fuel savings and the economic boost from squeezing more flights into Europe's busy skies.
麦肯锡公司的咨询顾问通过研究欧洲相类似的一个项目（SESAR）发现系统现代化以后节省的燃油费用，以及更多航班加入带来的经济效益要远远超过项目的投入。

America stands to make similar gains.
这项发现也适用于美国。

It is in everyone's interest to invest in modernisation, but the airlines are wary:
投资现代化总是回报颇丰，但是航空业却并非如此：

several times in recent history they have bought expensive kit only to find they cannot use it because controllers have failed to upgrade their equipment to match.
在近代历史上，人们好几次购买了非常昂贵的设配，却发现这些设配根本没用，因为控制设配没有升级，所以不能与之配套。

These sorts of ambitious projects to introduce new technology, with countless participants, are prone to cock-ups.
这些雄心勃勃的项目引进新的技术，还有不计其数的参与者，却常常一团糟。

Those involved in ATM modernisation want to avoid what happened when mobile-phone standards were set, with different countries ending up with incompatible systems.
先前在设置手机标准的时候，每个国家最后都设立了自己的系统标准，和其他国家的系统都互不兼容，参与空中交通管理系统（ATM)现代化的人希望不会重蹈覆辙。

To guard against that risk, the UN's International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) has just held a summit in Montreal, at which it divided the long list of ATM modernisation projects into manageable chunks, on which the world's aviation authorities will try to agree standards, one at a time.
为了避免此类风险，联合国的国际民用航空组织（ICAO）刚刚在蒙特利尔举行峰会， 在这次峰会上，ICAO把ATM现代化项目分成一个个更易于管理操作的阶段目标，而在这些阶段目标上，全世界的航空当局将会达成世界共同的标准。

The process has started well, though developing countries are said to worry about rich countries imposing costly programmes on them.
目前这一计划已经开始起步，与此同时，发展中国家很担心发达国家会将昂贵的项目强加给他们。

Agreeing on technical standards will be difficult enough.
统一技术标准已经是一件非常困难的事，

Harder still, says Nancy Graham, an ICAO official, will be paying for it all. Officials in Brussels talk of providing 3 billion ($4 billion) in EU grants towards modernising Europe's skies.
联合国的国际民用航空组织（ICAO）的官员南希格雷厄姆（Nancy Graham）判断现代化进程所需的费用将是一个更艰巨的挑战。布鲁塞尔的官员声称欧盟将会向欧洲航空现代化项目提供30亿欧元（40亿美元）。

But the total cost will be ten times as much.
但是总费用将会是这个数目的数十倍。

Will airlines be forced to pay the rest?
那么，航空业会要被迫负责剩下的费用么？

Or will some sort of levy spread the cost more widely? No one is sure.
还是会用某种税收摊分费用？现在还无人知晓。

Ms Graham says ICAO is looking at using its powers, hitherto used only for safety issues, to impose deadlines for installing all the equipment needed, on the ground and in the air, to bring aviation into the 21st century.
格雷厄姆女士(Ms Graham )声称国际民航组织(ICAO)正在使用其迄今为止只在安全问题上使用过的的权利，强制在地面和飞机上安装所有所需设备，并设置了最后期限，以此推动航空业进入21世纪。

That would at least give the industry certainty about what it must buy and when.
这种强制规定至少给了航空业下了清晰的指令，包括要买什么和时间期限。

European officials say this sort of tough approach may prove necessary—but sigh that it is getting harder to impose such legal mandates, even in the directive-crazy EU.
欧洲的相关官员声称这种强硬的做法有时是必要的，但即使是在欧盟，实施这些强制性的法令越来越难了。

In the meantime planes will continue to fly tortuous routes, waste tonnes of fuel and be subject to ever worsening delays.
而在此期间，飞机还是要在蜿蜒曲折的航线上飞行，浪费成吨的燃油，并且承受日趋严重的延误。