经济学人下载:与熊共舞

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BP in Russia
英石油在俄国

Dancing with bears
与熊共舞

BP's Russian venture is already proving trickier than expected
已有迹象表明英石油的俄罗斯冒险比预期的更为艰险

TONY HAYWARD, BP's ex-boss, once moaned that he wanted his life back.
英石油的前总裁托尼海沃德有一次抱怨说他希望回到从前。

That was after an oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico last year, which the British oil giant expects will end up costing it more than $40 billion.
他说这话是在去年的墨西哥湾漏油事件之后，该事件使得这家英国石油巨头预计会损失400多亿美元。

BP, too, is struggling to get its old life back, even after apologising, helping with the clean-up, dumping Mr Hayward and taking a huge write-off.
英石油现在也在挣扎着想回到从前，即使它又是道歉，又是帮着清理了漏油，还炒了海沃德先生的鱿鱼，账面价值也大幅缩水，还是于事无补。

On February 1st it announced its final, awful, results for 2010: a loss of $4.9 billion.
二月一日英石油发布了该公司2010年最终年度报告，真是糟糕透顶：全年亏损49亿美元。

That was BP's first loss since 1992, but the company fondly hopes that it will now have an opportunity to move on.
这是英石油自1992年来首次亏损，但是它却痴望会有机会摆脱困境，继续前进。

It would like to direct the world's attention to its efforts to improve safety, its plan to start paying dividends once again this year and its ideas for the future.
英石油正在努力提升安全标准，并打算今年重新开始发付股息，它对未来也颇有盘算，希望借此吸引全世界的注意。

Alas, some of those plans are already hitting obstacles.
可惜，英石油的一些盘算现在就已经触礁了。

Two weeks ago BP announced a new partnership with Rosneft, Russia's state-controlled oil giant, that will see the companies exploring a large and promising part of Russia's Arctic region for oil.
两周前，英石油宣布与俄罗斯石油巨头俄罗斯国家石油建立新的合作关系。这使得这两家公司有望联合勘探俄罗斯北极圈内的广阔而富饶的领土以寻找石油。

The deal gives BP access to Russian reserves which are normally kept out of foreign reach.
这桩交易使得英石油能够开采一般外国企业无法企及的俄罗斯石油资源。

In return Rosneft will get 5% of BP's shares, making it one of the largest shareholders.
而俄罗斯国家石油则将获得英石油5%的股份，使得它成为英石油最大的股东。

It will also share BP's expertise and technology.
此外，俄罗斯国家石油还能够分享英石油的经验和技术。

The deal sparked a furious row between BP and its partners in TNK-BP, a Russian oil company run as a joint venture between BP and a few Russian oligarchs.
但这桩交易却引发了英石油与其在秋明-英国石油中的合作者的激烈争吵，秋明-英国石油是一家俄罗斯石油公司，由英石油和一些俄罗斯寡头合办。

On the same day that BP's results were announced, a judge in London granted a request by Alfa-Access-Renova, the vehicle through which Russian partners hold their stake in TNK-BP, that the Rosneft deal be put on ice until at least February 25th.
在英石油年终报告出炉的当天，伦敦的一名法官批准了Alfa-Acess-Renova集团关于暂停英石油与俄罗斯国家石油的那桩交易至少暂停到二月二十五日的请求。AAR集团是英石油的俄罗斯合作者们借以控制他们在秋明-英国石油中股份的媒介。

AAR argues that TNK-BP is meant to enjoy an exclusive right to develop any further deals in Russia to which BP might be a party.
AAR集团认为该集团对于任何在俄罗斯达成的并有英石油参与的新交易，都享有独家权力。

It complains that BP has stiffed it.
它投诉英石油有欺诈行为。

BP is acting more Russian than a Russian firm,” says one of AAR's largest shareholders. AAR has also moved to block a dividend from TNK-BP that would have yielded BP $900m.
英石油比俄国企业还要有俄国味，”AAR集团的一名大股东说道。AAR集团还申请秋明-英国石油停止付给英石油9亿美元的股息收入。

At a press conference Bob Dudley, BP's new boss, said that it had been impossible for BP to talk to AAR in advance of the Rosneft deal because of the market sensitivity of the share swap involved, and that BP and its partners would be headed for arbitration on the matter regardless of the court verdict.
在一场新闻发布会上，英石油的新老板鲍勃达得利表示在与俄罗斯国家石油达成交易之前就给AAR集团透风是不可能的，因为对于股权交换，市场一向很敏感。对于该交易引发的争端，尽管有法庭裁定，英石油及其合作者们还是会寻求仲裁解决。

He says he expects to come to a settlement quite easily, and that one of BP's strengths is its long history of involvement with Russia, which contributes about 10% of BP's profits.
达得利说他预计他们能够很轻松的解决争端。英石油长期与俄罗斯的生意往来是其力量源泉之一，该公司10%的利润都来自俄国。

At least some of this history, however, consists of misjudging Russian politics and quarrelling with its partners.
但是在这段交往史中，英石油有时对俄国政治状况及该公司与其合作者之间的争端作出了错误的判断。

When BP formed its joint venture with TNK in 2003, oligarchs seemed the partners of choice for getting things done in Russia.
2003年，当英石油与秋明石油合作成立秋明-英国石油的时候，俄罗斯的寡头们似乎是英石油在俄罗斯获得成功的正确选择。

But in 2008, having judged that the ultimate power in Russia lay with state energy companies, BP went behind the backs of its private Russian partners to negotiate a deal with Gazprom, the state-controlled gas behemoth.
但是到了2008年，英石油看出俄罗斯的最终权力还是握在国有能源公司手里，于是它背着它在俄国的私人合作者与俄罗斯的国有天然气巨头—俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司商谈一笔交易。

This did not go down well.
这件事情可让其他人接受不了。

BP underestimated the power of Mikhail Fridman, one of its oligarch partners.
英石油低估了米哈伊尔·弗里德曼的实力，弗里德曼是一名俄罗斯寡头，也是英石油的一名合作伙伴。

A self-made entrepreneur, Mr Fridman got rich in the 1990s and then consolidated his business under Vladimir Putin while remaining his own man—a trick few have managed.
弗里德曼白手起家，在上世纪90年代发了财。弗拉基米尔·普京当政期间弗里德曼不仅巩固了自己的业务，还保持毫发无损—能做到这一点的人可不多。

BP's attempt to outplay Russian oligarchs at their own game of power politics failed.
英石油企图在俄国寡头们所熟习的强权政治游戏中击败他们，但是遭到了失败。

Mr Fridman pulled strings, Gazprom disengaged and Mr Dudley, then the chief executive of TNK-BP, had to flee Russia.
由于弗里德曼先生的幕后操纵，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司退出了与英石油的合作，当时的秋明-英国石油总裁达得利先生也不得不逃离俄罗斯。

Purported diplomatic cables published by WikiLeaks suggest that Igor Sechin, the deputy prime minister and chairman of Rosneft, BP's new partner, was co-operating with Alfa Mr Fridman's firm and played a part in Mr Dudley's ouster.
据说维基解密公布的外交密电透露俄罗斯副总理，俄罗斯国家石油董事长伊戈尔谢琴曾与阿尔法集团弗里德曼先生的企业联手赶走达得利先生。

Of oil and oligarchs
关于石油和寡头

Now BP is in bed with Rosneft and has shaken hands with Mr Sechin, who is widely seen as the architect of the attack on Yukos, an oil firm that was dismantled with scant regard to the law in 2004.
现在，英石油与谢琴先生已经握手言欢，和俄罗斯国家石油达成了合作。人们广泛认为谢琴是攻击尤科斯石油的始作俑者。2004年，尽管法律依据不足，尤科斯石油仍然被迫解体。

Yukos's main shareholder, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, is now in jail.
尤科斯的主要股东，米哈伊尔· 霍多科夫斯基则锒铛入狱。

He was ostentatiously given a second prison sentence just as the BP-Rosneft deal was announced.
在英石油和俄罗斯国家石油宣布其交易之时，霍多科夫斯基又被大张声势地追加刑罚。

BP may become embroiled in the legal battle over Yukos's assets, which were swallowed by Rosneft.
由于尤科斯的资产主要被俄罗斯国家石油吞并，英石油因此有可能被卷入到围绕尤科斯的资产而展开的法律争斗之中。

But first the British firm faces a fight with Mr Fridman.
但是英石油首先得面对一场与弗里德曼先生的斗争。

If BP assumed that its partnership with Rosneft meant that Mr Fridman would not dare to protest, and that Mr Sechin would always take BP's side, it may have miscalculated.
如果英石油认为它与俄罗斯国家石油的合作关系意味着弗里德曼先生不敢抗议，认为谢琴先生会一直站在英石油这一边，那它可能就盘算错了。

The legal challenge from AAR is said to come with the full knowledge and approval of the Kremlin.
据说克里姆林宫对AAR集团借助法律向英石油发难一事了解的一清二楚，并且它鼎力支持AAR集团的举动。

BP has a very simplistic view of the power structure in Russia,” says Mr Fridman.
英石油对俄罗斯的权力结构的考虑过于简单，”弗里德曼先生说。

AAR does not have any interest in destroying Rosneft's $16 billion deal with BP.
AAR集团对于毁掉俄罗斯国家石油与英石油的这桩160亿美元的交易没有丝毫兴趣。

But equally Mr Sechin is unlikely to stand in Mr Fridman's way when he demands that BP compensate AAR handsomely.
但同样的一旦弗里德曼先生要求英石油给予AAR集团一笔可观的赔款时，谢琴先生也不大可能会挡弗里德曼的道。

Rather than wanting to chase Mr Dudley away again, the Kremlin and AAR are keen to draw BP deeper into Russian business and gain more influence over it.
克里姆林宫以及AAR集团更希望将英石油拖进俄罗斯商界深处并且能够对它施加更多的影响，而不是想把达得利先生再次赶走。

Rosneft wants to transform itself into a respectable global oil firm, using its relationship with BP as a stepping-stone.
俄罗斯国家石油企图以其与英石油的关系作为垫脚石，将自己转变为一家受人尊敬的全球性石油企业。

BP must surely have its qualms about this; but all the parties' interests are at least aligned on one thing.
英石油当然会对此有所疑虑；但各方起码还是有一个利益一致处，

They want those Arctic oilfields to make money.
那就是他们都想靠北极油田赚钱。

As Mr Dudley affirmed this week, BP's long-term strategy is to keep searching for oil, which is more lucrative than gas.
正如达得利先生本周所证实，英石油的长期战略就是不断探寻石油。石油比天然气更赚钱。

And with more and more of the world's oil being produced by state-owned oil firms, private ones need to go to greater extremes, both technologically and politically, to stay in the game.
而因为世界上越来越多的石油都为国有石油企业所生产，私人石油企业就不得不在技术上和政治上不断超越极限，以求在行业中继续求得生存。