经济学人下载:汽车制造商 燃油车赢得先机

Business
商业报道

Carmakers
汽车制造商

Revenge of the petrolheads
燃油车赢得先机

Fossil-fuel cars are getting much cleaner, making life hard for green ones
燃油汽车越来越环保了，环保汽车日子难过了

THE Chevrolet Volt, a compact, petrol-electric hybrid launched by GM a year ago,
雪佛兰新款车型沃蓝达结构紧凑，是由通用汽车公司在一年前推出的一款混合动力车，

was already selling poorly before it emerged last month that its batteries had caught fire in crash tests.
上个月它的电池在碰撞试验中起火，但在此之前它的销售很不理想。

GM is likely to fall several thousand short of its target of selling 10,000 Volts this year.
通用汽车对沃蓝达首年销售目标一万辆，预计可能要低售数千辆。

Despite subsidies, electric cars and hybrids are shifting sluggishly.
尽管有一定政府补贴，电动车和混合动力车的换代很缓慢。

The Volt's battery problem should be fairly easy to fix.
沃蓝达的电池问题应该很容易解决。

But the profusion of hybrid and all-electric cars now hitting the roads faces a far bigger challenge.
但大量混合动力和电动汽车在其前进的道路上面临着更大的挑战。

Petrol- and diesel-engined vehicles are becoming much more fuel-efficient.
汽油和柴油动力车将变得更加省油。

That means motorists will remain reluctant to pay a fat premium for a green car.
这意味着驾驶者不愿多花钱来买绿色环保汽车。

Reprints Between now and 2025 regulators in Europe,
从现在到2025年，在欧美和其他地区的监管机构，

America and elsewhere plan to impose ever greater curbs on cars' emissions of carbon dioxide.
对汽车的二氧化碳排放将出台更高限制的新标准。

This is forcing carmakers to invest both in developing electrics and hybrids and in making the conventional engine cleaner.
这迫使汽车制造商加大电动和混合动力汽车研发投入，或使传统发动机更高清洁。

Ricardo, an engineering consultancy, and Sanford C.
里卡多工程咨询公司，和Sanford C公司。

Bernstein, an investment bank, have crunched a bunch of numbers on the technology race between conventional and green vehicles.
投资银行Bernstein，汇总处理了传统和绿色汽车技术竞赛中的不少数据。

They conclude that petrol and diesel cars will keep closing the emissions gap,
他们得出结论说，汽油和柴油汽车的排放量将越来越接近，

while hybrids and, especially, electrics, will be more expensive to own for years to come.
而混合动力车、特别是电动车，将在今后几年更为昂贵。

The internal-combustion engine will still be king of the road in the early 2020s, when only a fifth of cars sold in Europe will be hybrid or electric.
在21世纪20年代初，燃油车仍将是路上行驶车辆的主宰，欧洲销售的汽车中只有五分之一是混合动力或电动的。

America's regulators are only now getting tough on fuel efficiency, so its cars are guzzling as much petrol as they did 20 years ago.
因为美国监管局到现在才对汽车燃油效率的要求变的越来越严，所以美国的汽车和20年前的一样，依然是“油老虎”。

However, in Europe, which got strict sooner and where fuel is heavily taxed, petrol and diesel vehicles have become much cleaner.
但在欧洲燃油税很高，加油也得到了限制，汽油和柴油车已比以往干净多了。

The average new car sold in Britain now does 52.5 miles per gallon, up from 40.6mpg ten years ago.
现在英国出售的新车平均每加仑汽油跑52.5英里，比十年前40.6英里已经大大提高。

Even so, says Neville Jackson of Ricardo, there remains much scope for improvement:
即便如此，内维尔?杰克逊的里卡多说，仍然有很大的改进空间：

petrol and diesel cars still typically use less than a fifth of the energy stored in their fuel to turn the wheels.
汽油和柴油汽车通常只能将不到五分之一的燃料能量转换为车轮扭矩。

Plenty more miles can be squeezed out of each gallon. It is simply a matter of cost.
每加仑油事实上可以支撑行驶更多的里程，这仅仅是一个成本问题。

To meet a series of deadlines to cut emissions,
要满足一系列减排标准的最后期限，

carmakers are putting into their cheaper models all sorts of gear hither to mostly seen on pricey high-performance cars:
汽车制造商正把过去用在高性能汽车上的配置使用到他们的廉价车型中：

turbochargers and superchargers, fancy fuel-injection systems and valve trains; grilles with variable aerodynamics, and so on.
涡轮增压器、增压机，花式燃油喷射系统和气阀机构；气动格栅，等等。

Next year Ford will offer a new Focus compact car in Europe,
明年福特将在欧洲亮出一个紧凑型轿车的新焦点。

with a one-litre, three-cylinder engine that performs as well as the 1.6 litre, four-cylinder engine it replaces, yet uses about 20% less fuel.
设计1升三缸发动机，其性能可与1.6升四缸发动机相媲美，但可节省20％左右的燃料。

Joe Bakaj, an engineer at Ford, says that even American buyers of the company's F-150 pickups,
福特的工程师乔?拜卡杰说他们的车型F–150，

who would normally scoff at anything with less than a V8 engine,
美国的买手选择了V6发动机，

are switching to a new V6 version that performs at least as well but drinks less fuel.
以往这些人往往对小于V8的发动机不屑一顾，但至少现在改换到V6发动机能省下不少油耗。

The analysis by Ricardo and Bernstein shows the carmakers are in a tight spot:
里卡多和伯恩斯坦的分析显示，汽车制造商都在捏一把汗：

given motorists' aversion to the cost of electrics and hybrids,
基于驾驶者购买电动混合动力汽车仍有较大的成本压力，

the quickest route towards meeting the deadlines for cutting emissions is to invest heavily in cleaning up their petrol and diesel cars.
他们必须以最快的路线在截止日期前达到排放标准，这意味着必须大量投入研制开发使汽油柴油车辆的排放更加清洁。

But to squeak past the finishing line they will still need a small proportion of hybrids and electrics.
即使勉强达到排放标准，他们仍然需要小比例的混合动力和电动汽车。

So they will have to keep spending on designing these, without their reaching a level of sales that will make them profitable.
因此他们只能持续投入设计这些混合动力和电动汽车，即便这些车型的销售规模达不到盈利水平。

Stefanie Lang of Bernstein says this will force carmakers to work together on developing new technology:
伯恩斯坦的斯黛芬尼?朗说，这将迫使汽车制造商共同开发新技术：

Toyota, for example, has agreed to work with Ford on hybrid sport-utility vehicles and with BMW on both electric batteries and diesel engines.
例如，丰田已同意与福特联合研制混合动力运动型多用途车，并和宝马联合研制电动电池和柴油发动机。

Carmakers are also dabbling in battery leasing and car-sharing as they seek ways to persuade motorists that electric cars are affordable.
汽车制造商也涉足电池租赁和汽车共享，因为他们必须设法说服驾驶者：他们是负担得起电动汽车。

Hybrids and electrics will be a drag on carmakers' profits for years.
复合动力和电驱动车辆将在今后几年拖低汽车制造商的利润。

But they are a useful marketing tool.
但它们是一个有用的营销工具。

GM has found that adding the hybrid Volt to its model range is enticing into its showrooms the sort of young urban buyers who normally ignore Detroit-made cars.
通用发现在车型中增加了沃蓝达后，那些通常对底特律汽车无视的都市年轻人也被吸引到GM的展室了。

Many balk at the Volt's $32,000 price,
但他们中不少人对其32,000美元的价格望而生畏，

but some end up driving away in a petrol-engined car like the Cruze, costing around half as much.
结果他们中一些人还是选择了汽油发动机车辆，比如科鲁兹，其价格只有沃蓝达的一半。