经济学人下载:棉花出口 印度颁布棉花禁令

Business
商业报道

Cotton exports
棉花出口

Knickers in a twist
印度颁布棉花禁令，世界市场反应强烈

India bans cotton exports—confusing everyone, including its government.
印度禁止棉花出口，让所有人都很迷惑，政府自己也很不解。

WHEN Mahatma Gandhi began spinning Indian cotton on a wheel in 1918, it symbolised his desire for national self-sufficiency.
1918年甘地亲自用印度的棉花纺织时，这代表着他渴望国家自给自足的心愿。

Too much of the fibre was exported to Japan and Britain, on exploitative terms, he felt.
他认为出口给日本英国纺织品中太多都是通过不平等的条款出口的。

Almost a century on, India's cotton industry is still integrated with global production chains.
近一个世纪以来，印度的棉花产业依然是处在世界产业链中。

Thus a decision on March 5th by the country's commerce ministry to ban exports sent markets around the world into a tizz.
因此三月五日印度商务部禁止棉花出口的决定让世界市场都迷惑不已。

Derivative prices leapt on New York's trading floors.
纽约证券交易市场的相关金融衍生产品价格飞涨。

Panicky Y-front makers the world over worried if their contracts were void.
全球Y型内裤制造商陷入恐慌，担心自己的条约无效。

Excited stockbrokers in Thailand told their clients to buy the shares of polyester firms.
泰国的股票经纪人十分兴奋，告诉客户们购买涤纶厂商的股票。

India, after all, is the world's second-largest exporter of cotton, after America.
不管怎么说，印度都是仅次于美国的第二大的棉花出口商。

The commerce ministry seems to have been worried that short-term export commitments were more than India could comfortably meet.
商务部似乎在担心短期出口承诺难以兑现，

It feared a spike in domestic cotton prices, followed by hoarding.
害怕国内棉花因囤积居奇而价格飙升。

This would hurt India's textiles industry, which uses cotton as a raw material, is not in the best financial health and is a huge employer.
这样会损害以棉花为原材料的纺织业，而纺织业财政状况不佳且提供大量就业。

India temporarily banned cotton exports in 2010 in response to similar concerns.
2010年印度因为类似原因暂时停止棉花出口。

And there is a troubling backdrop, too.
这一政策的出台也有难言的苦衷。

The world cotton market went nuts in 2011, with supply blips in some countries and high demand pushing global prices last year to their highest since the American civil war.
2011年国际棉花市场如同疯了一般，去年一些国家的产量下降，而高需求等因素将全球价格推到了美国内战后的最高点。

After years of declining raw-material prices, clothes firms such as Gap announced profit warnings and saw their shares whacked.
原材料价格经过多年下滑后，诸如盖普一类的服装公司宣布利润预警，并且眼看着股价疲软。

The agricultural divisions of two big trading firms, Glencore and Noble Group, were caught with their trousers down and lost money.
两大贸易公司嘉能可和来宝集团的农业分部也因此名利俱损。

Prices have collapsed since mid-2011, but after a roller-coaster ride everyone is jittery.
2011年六月份以来棉花价格崩溃，但是之后的价格过山车之后，每个人仍然都紧张不安。

China has been stockpiling a mountain of cotton, presumably to insulate its textile makers from shocks.
中国囤积了大量棉花，可能会使织物生产商免于市场震荡。

India may in turn be worried that its own surplus is being whisked away to create a safety buffer for the Middle Kingdom. Hence the ban.
反过来，印度可能正担心棉花产量会走向下滑，而为天朝创造一个缓冲区。因此禁止棉花出口。

A vicious circle of price rises, stockpiling and export bans does not make sense in the medium term for any commodity, whether cotton, onions or iron ore.
中期来说任何商品不论是棉花，洋葱还是铁矿石陷入价格飞涨，囤积居奇，禁止出口的恶性循环都不可行。

It erodes confidence in supply chains and may dent overall production.
这会侵蚀供应链各环节的信心，也可能会阻碍总体产量。

Behaviour that may be rational for individual actors can cause chaos if everyone copies it.
个人合理的行为，若是每个人都照样做就会造成混乱。

No one expects a nation to act for the common good,
没有人会期望一个国家会为共同的利益着想，

but it seems doubtful that India's ban is even in its own narrow interests.
但是似乎印度禁止出口仅仅出于自身狭窄利益是值得怀疑的。

Trying to keep prices low favours textile makers but is bad for farmers who grow the stuff.
试图保持低价有利于纺织品生产商却不利于棉农。

India's agriculture minister says he was not consulted about the ban.
印度的农业部长说并没有人向他咨询过这项禁令的后果。

Narendra Modi, the powerful chief minister of Gujarat, a state in west India, wrote to the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, that the ban was anti-farmer.
印度西部古吉拉特邦首席部长莫迪写信给总理辛格，说这项禁令伤农。

Mr Singh has promised an immediate review.
辛格承诺立刻修订。

That seems likely to repeal the ban.
这似乎有可能会废除这条禁令。

But there may be damage to India's reputation as a reliable supplier.
但是这有可能伤害印度作为一个可靠供应商的信誉。

As the news of the ban came out Australia's agriculture minister had just launched a report predicting that Australia would double its cotton exports between 2010 and 2013.
当禁令的消息爆出时，澳大利亚农业部长发布一份报告预测澳大利亚将在2012-2013年度将棉花出口加倍。

His view on India's ban?
他对于印度禁令的看法是什么？

It's an opportunity.
这是一个机会。