经济学人下载:现代红娘

Science and technology
科学技术

Sex and love
性与爱

The modern matchmakers
现代红娘

Internet dating sites claim to have brought science to the age-old question of how to pair off successfully. But have they?
互联网相亲网站声称已经将科技运用如何成功配对的问题之上。但事实是不是这样呢？

FOR as long as humans have romanced each other, others have wanted to meddle.
只要人类存在婚恋行为，外人就想加以干涉。

Whether those others were parents, priests, friends or bureaucrats, their motive was largely the same:
不论这些外人是父母、牧师、朋友或者官员，他们的动机在很大程度上一致：

they thought they knew what it took to pair people off better than those people knew themselves.
他们自认为比婚恋们自身更了解怎样去更好地配对成功。

Today, though, there is a new matchmaker in the village: the internet.
然而如今在乡村里出现了一种新型的红娘：互联网。

It differs from the old ones in two ways.
它同传统红娘在两方面有所区别。

First, its motive is purely profit.
首先，其完全有利益驱使。

Second, single wannabe lovers are queuing up to use it, rather than resenting its nagging.
其次渴求另一半的单身排队使用它，而不用忍受红娘的絮絮叨叨。

For internet dating sites promise two things that neither traditional matchmakers nor chance encounters at bars, bus-stops and bar mitzvahs offer.
其原因在于互联网相亲网站承诺了两个传统红娘和在酒吧、车站、成年礼上的偶遇都不能提供的优势。

One is a vastly greater choice of potential partners.
一是：未来伴侣的大量选择机会；

The other is a scientifically proven way of matching suitable people together, enhancing the chance of happily ever after.
二是：用科学有效的方式将合适的人配对，以增加婚后幸福的几率。

The greater choice is unarguable.
拥有大量选择机会的优势是无可争议的。

But does it lead to better outcomes?
但它真能带来更好地婚配结果吗？

And do the scientifically tested algorithms actually work, and deliver the goods in ways that traditional courtship cannot manage?
所谓的经过科学测试的婚配策略是否真正其作用，能否以传统求爱无法胜任的方式完成婚配？

These are the questions asked by a team of psychologists led by Eli Finkel of Northwestern University, in Illinois, in a paper released
这些问题正是伊利诺斯州德西北大学的Eli Finkel所领导的心理学家小组在情人节前几天所发布的论文中提到的，

probably not coincidentally—a few days before St Valentine's day.
也许这并非偶然。

This paper, published in Psychological Science in the Public Interest,
这篇发布在公家好处报纸心理学栏目，

reviews studies carried out by many groups of psychologists since the earliest internet dating site, Match.com, opened for business in 1995.
它回顾了在1995年最早的互联网相亲网站开门营业后众多心理学团体的研究。

In it, Dr Finkel and his colleagues cast a sceptical eye over the whole multi-billion-dollar online dating industry, and they are deeply unconvinced.
在这篇论文中，Finkel博士和他的同事对这个年盈利数十亿美元的网上相亲产业表示高度怀疑。

Blueprint for a perfect partner?
另一半的完美模板

The researchers' first observation is not so much what the studies they examined have shown,
研究者们首先注意的不是这些研究能展示的结果，

but what they have been unable to show, namely how any of the much-vaunted partner-matching algorithms actually work.
二是他们还不能展示的东西，即那些自夸的婚配策略是如何起作用的。

Commercially, that is fair enough.
在商业上来看，这似乎无可厚非。

Many firms preserve their intellectual property as trade secrets, rather than making it public by patenting it,
许多公司将其知识产权作为商业机密保护起来，

and there is no reason why internet dating sites should not be among them.
而非通过申请专利使其公开化。

But this makes claims of efficacy impossible to test objectively.
而互联网相亲网站没有理由效仿这些公司。

There is thus no independent scientific evidence that any internet dating site's algorithm for matching people together。
互联网相亲网站的行为使其声称的婚配效果完全无法得到客观公正的检验。

actually does enhance the chance of their hitting it off when they meet.
因此也就没有公正的科学证据证明任何互联网相亲网站确实能使其婚配的恋人能和睦相处。

What papers have been published on the matter have been written by company insiders who do not reveal how the crucial computer programs do their stuff.
关于这方面的已发表的论文都是有公司内部人员撰写，然而他们却没有解释核心电脑程序是如何运作的。

It is, though, possible to test the value of a claim often made for these algorithms: that they match people with compatible personality traits.
然而，去检测针对这些婚配策略所作出的承诺的价值是可能的。

No doubt they do, given the number of questions on such matters on the average application form.
看看申请表上关于性格方面问题的数量就知道他们确实采用此种策略。

What is assumed, but not tested, however, is that this is a good thing—that those with compatible personalities make more successful couples than those without.
然而大家认为这是一种好的策略-性格相合相对性格不合的恋人更容易拥有幸福美满的婚姻，但是这一点未经证实。

To examine this proposition, Dr Finkel draws on a study published in 2010 by Portia Dyrenforth of Hobart and William Smith Colleges, in Geneva, New York.
为了验证这一观点，Finkel博士引用了纽约日内瓦霍巴特与威廉·史密斯学院的Portia Dyrenforth在2010年发表的研究。

Dr Dyrenforth asked more than 20,000 people about their relationships, and also assessed their personalities.
博士Dyrenforth询问了20000多对夫妻的关系，同时也评估了他们的性格。

Members of couples with similar personalities were indeed happier than those whose partners were dissimilar.
拥有相同性格的夫妻确实比性格不同的夫妻幸福些。

But the difference was not exactly huge.
但是差别不是很大，

It was 0.5%.
仅仅5%。

As Dr Finkel puts it,
正如Finkel博士所说的：

I wouldn't have a problem with companies claiming that their matching algorithm could increase the chances of developing a lasting relationship by a tiny amount;
对于那些声称其婚配策略可以小幅地提升维持长久关系的可能性的公司，我不会给予否定。

I get concerned, though, when companies claim they can find your soul mate for you.
然而，当其声称他们可以帮你找到灵魂伴侣时，我却不赞同。

Surely, however, the chances of finding that magic other are increased by the second thing internet dating brings: oodles of choice?
然而可以肯定的是互联网相亲网站提供的第二种优势能提升找到合适的另一半的可能性。

But here, too, things are not as simple as they might seem.
然而，事情也并非看起来简单。

Some dating-site algorithms do not take the high-handed we know best approach but, rather,
一些相亲网站得婚配策略不是采取那种客观婚配的策略而是让单身者自身决定他或她寻找什么类型的人，

let the punter decide what he or she is looking for and then offer as many matches to those criteria as are on the website's books.
然后如同网上售书根据这些标准提供婚配对象。

The crucial assumption here, of course, is that what people think they want is what they actually need.
当然，这里有一个重要的假设：人们自认为想要的类型是他们实际真正需要的。

That, it is true, is an assumption behind all consumer decisions.
事实上，这个假设是所有消费者都未曾考虑的。

But changing your mind about a book or a washing machine chosen over the internet is not as emotionally fraught as changing your mind about a potential sexual partner.
但是改变的对你网购的一本书或者一台洗衣机的看法并不像改变对一个潜在的性伴侣那样令人担忧。

And here, too, the data suggest people are not good at knowing what they want.
这些数据也暗示人们并非了解他们真正的需要。

One of Dr Finkel's own studies,
例如，Finkel博士自己的一个研究显示：

for example, showed that when they are engaged in internet dating's cousin, speed dating,
人们进行同网络交友的类似活动如快速约会，

people's stated preferences at the beginning of the process do not well match the characters of the individuals they actually like.
人们在一开始申明的标准和他们真正喜欢的人的性格相符。

Indeed, even the very volume of alternatives may be a problem. Studies on consumer choice, from boxes of chocolates to restaurant wine lists, have shown that less is more.
事实上，婚配候选人的数量就可能是一个问题。从巧克力盒子道餐馆酒水一览目录，关于消费者选择的研究发现并非越多越好。

Half a dozen bonbons, or a dozen bottles, are easier to pick between than 30 or 40. And an internet dating site may come up with not just a few dozen,
相较于30或者40打，半打夹心糖或者一打瓶子更容易选择。相亲网站带来的不仅仅是几十个婚配候选人，

but thousands of allegedly suitable matches.
而是成百上千的宣称合适的婚配者。

The supermarket of love
爱情超市

Not surprisingly, the difficulty of choosing from abundance seems to apply to choice of people, too.
果然，这种从大量选择的困难看起来也同样适用于人的选择。

Dr Finkel could find no study which addressed the question directly, in the context of internet dating.
在互联网相亲的背景下，Finkel博士没能发现直接解决这一问题的研究。

But speed-dating once again provided an answer.
但是快速约会曾提供了一种答案。

Here, he found studies which showed that when faced with abundant choice,
这里，他发现一些研究显示到：当面临大量的选择时，

people pay less attention to characteristics that require thinking and conversation to evaluate and more to matters physical.
人们很少关注需要思考和谈话才能评估诸如职业阶层和教育水平，而更加关注身体外形方面。

Choice, in other words, dulls the critical faculties.
换句话说，选择埋没了重要的才能。

The upshot of Dr Finkel's review is thus that love is as hard to find on the internet as elsewhere.
Finkel博士的观点的要点是如同在其他地方一样，网上的爱情也很难需求。

That is not a reason not to use it.
没有理由不相信这句话。

But you may be just as likely to luck out in the local cafe, or by acting on the impulse to stop and talk to that stranger on the street whose glance you caught, as you are by clicking away with a mouse and hoping that,
如同在当地咖啡店希望走桃花运或者兴致冲冲地停下来同街道上的瞄着你的陌生人谈话，你还是点击鼠标，

one day, Cupid's arrow will strike.
希望有一天丘比特之箭能射中你。