经济学人下载:阿根廷与YPF

Argentina and YPF

阿根廷与YPF

Flogging a Dead Cow

抽一头死牛

The recently nationalised oil company agrees on a big foreign investment

最经刚刚国有化的油企接受了一项大型外国投资。

Jul 27th 2013 | BUENOS AIRES |From the print edition

Out of gas

LITTLE more than a year ago President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner announced the nationalisation of YPF, an oil company owned by Spain’s Repsol. Ms Fernández called it a victory for “energy sovereignty”, claiming that Repsol had plundered its Argentine holding for quick profits without investing in exploration or development. But on July 16th, after a year in which YPF’s oil and gas production continued to disappoint, the government announced that it had agreed on a big joint venture between YPF and a different foreign oil giant, Chevron.

在一年多一点之前，阿根廷总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·德基什内尔宣布西班牙Repsol公司所有的石油公司YPF的国有化。费尔南德斯总统称这是能源主权的胜利，她表示Repsol公司没有投资探测开发却坐收渔翁之利。但是一年过去了，YPF的石油天然气生产仍然令人失望。7月16日，阿政府宣布接受YPF与另一家外国石油巨头雪佛兰组成合资企业。

Argentina’s energy industry is in a sad state. In 2011 the country became a net importer of energy for the first time since 1984, further eroding its foreign-currency reserves, now at their lowest in six years. Nationalisation has not helped: in the first quarter of this year YPF’s output of crude oil fell by 0.7% and of natural gas by 3.7%. April saw a fire at a refinery. Energy imports are expected to reach $14 billion this year, up from $9.2 billion in 2012.

阿根廷的能源产业处境艰难。2011年该国自1984年之后再次成为能源净进口国家，这进一步吞噬了其外汇储备，达到了六年来的最低值。国有化一点作用都没有，今年第一季度YPF的原油产量下跌了0.7%，天然气产量则下跌了3.7%。四月份的时候炼油厂还发生了大火。预计今年的能源进口会达到140亿美元，相比去年的92亿大幅上涨。

The great hope is vast shale-oil and gas reserves in Neuquén province, which Repsol discovered shortly before the government expropriated YPF. The Vaca Muerta (“Dead Cow”) field is estimated to hold 16 billion barrels of shale oil and 308 trillion cubic feet (8.7 trillion cubic metres) of shale gas, which would give Argentina the world’s fourth-largest reserves of shale oil and second-largest of shale gas.

最大的希望是内乌肯省页岩层油气田的大量储备，这是由Repsol在YPF国有化前不久发现的。Vaca Muerta油气田估计具有160亿桶石油和308万亿立方英尺的天然气（8.7万亿立方米）这会让阿根廷一举成为世界上第四大页岩石油储备国和第二大页岩天然气储备国。

Extracting the deeply buried spoils is complicated, costly work. Jorge Ferioli of the World Energy Council, an industry research group, estimates that developing Vaca Muerta will require $68 billion-89 billion. YPF lacks such funds, and Argentina’s borrowing costs in effect bar it from seeking international financing.

开发这些资源很复杂，且花费巨大。世界能源委员会的Jorge Ferioli估计开发Vaca Muerta需要680亿到890亿美元（世界能源委员会是一个工业研究组织）。YPF没有足够的资金，并且阿根廷现有的借贷成本使得它也无法进行国际融资。

As well as bringing expertise, Chevron has promised an initial investment of $1.24 billion in Vaca Muerta as part of its joint venture with YPF. The deal was announced after Ms Fernández issued a decree seemingly tailor-made for Chevron, which states that energy companies that invest over $1 billion will, after five years, be allowed to sell 20% of their production abroad without paying export taxes or being forced to repatriate profits. 

雪佛兰已经承诺首轮投资金额会达到12.4亿美元，并且会带来专业技术。这笔交易在费尔南德斯总统发布了一项看起来是给雪佛兰量身定做的法令之后宣布的，法令的内容是任何投资过10亿美元的能源公司，五年之后，允许他们将其20%的产品出口到国外，不征收出口税或者强制返利。

Opposition parties, which backed the expropriation, have labelled the Chevron deal a “re-privatisation” and challenged the legality of the decree. They will make the most of the controversy in the run-up to congressional elections due in October. “A year ago the government considered energy sovereignty to mean ‘Spanish, get out’, whereas now it seems to mean ‘Yankees, come in’,” says Daniel Montamat, a former energy secretary and former head of YPF (under opposition governments).

支持国有化得反对派称这次的雪佛兰交易是重新私有化，他们也质问此法令的合法性。他们会为了即将在十月举行的国会选举将此事放大。反对党执政时的前能源部长兼YPF前老板Daniel Montamat表示：“一年前，政府认为能源主权是‘滚蛋，西班牙人！’，而现在则变成了‘快来啊，美国人’。”

YPF faces obstacles to attracting more collaborators. For one thing there is runaway inflation and a distorted exchange rate. More pressing is the government’s unfinished business with Repsol. Argentina has yet to compensate the company a peso for the $10.5 billion it claims it is owed. Last year, anticipating its deal with YPF, Repsol sued Chevron in Spain and the United States; on July 24th it sought an injunction to halt the deal. Keeping the lights on in Argentina is not getting any easier. 

YPF在吸引更多合作者时面临阻碍。其一是恶性通货膨胀和混乱的汇率。更重要的是政府尚未完成于Repsol的交易。阿根廷政府尚未向此次交易支付一比索，他们达成的交易金额是105亿美元。去年，预见到雪佛兰跟YPF的交易，Repsol在西班牙和美国都起诉了雪佛兰。7月24日Repsol公司寻求禁令企图终止这项交易。阿根廷的能源问题仍然棘手。