经济学人下载:印度尼西亚银行 黄金时代的终结

Finance and economics
财经商业

Indonesia's banks
印度尼西亚银行

The good times end
黄金时代的终结

Banks' solvency is not in question. Profitability is another matter
银行偿付不是问题 获利才是问题

IN THE late 1990s Indonesia's banking sector collapsed after the rupiah lost about 85% of its value against the dollar, leading to a spate of loan defaults by borrowers unable to service their foreign debts.
90年代末卢比汇率暴跌货币损失85%价值，这造成了大量大量贷款拖欠者无力偿还外债。

The rupiah's recent decline—the currency has dropped by 14% against the dollar since the start of the year—and a big current-account deficit have revived uncomfortable memories of that period.
卢比的汇率下跌以及大量的财政赤字使得那些不好的记忆重现。

Indonesia's economy is now growing at its slowest pace in almost three years.
今年是印度尼西亚这三年来经济增长最为缓慢的一年。

In real terms GDP expanded at an annual rate of 5.8% in the second quarter, down from a recent high of 6.8%.
在第二季度中实际GDP增长率仅为5.8%，较之前的6.8%有所回落。

Since May Bank Indonesia, the central bank, has lifted its main interest rate by 125 basis points to 7%, the highest since June 2009, in an effort to reverse the rupiah's slide.
为了阻止卢比的下跌，五月份以来，印度尼西亚的中央银行将主要利率将之前的基点125上调了7%。这是自2009年6月以来的最高值。

When the currency was stable it made sense for firms to borrow in dollars even if their revenues were in rupiah, says Ivan Tan of Standard & Poor's, a ratings agency.
标准普尔的Ivan Tan称当货币稳定时公司更倾向于用美元贷款，即使他们所收入的是卢比。

Slower growth, currency depreciation and higher interest rates will “start to stretch companies' ability to repay their debts.
缓慢的经济增速，货币贬值以及高利率限制了企业还贷能力。

Firms with dollar revenues, which are naturally hedged against exchange-rate risk, may not be as safe as they once were.
而那些收入美元的公司能在一定程度上避免汇率波动所带来的风险，但这也不是绝对的。

Many of Indonesia's biggest exporters are in the natural-resources sector, selling things like palm oil, rubber or minerals.
印度尼西亚的大型出口企业多出口自然资源比如棕榈油橡胶或者金属。

International prices for such commodities have tumbled recently as growth has slowed in China and other large importing countries.
受中国及其他主要进口国经济增速放慢的影响，这些商品的国际价格最近都有所下跌。

This is not the 1990s again, however.
这已经不是90年代了。

Indonesia's banks have high capital ratios—an average of 16.9% in May for the country's commercial lenders.
但是印度尼西亚有着很高的资本比。—在5月份，商业贷款人平均占16.9%。

Credit growth has raced along at an annual rate of about 20% in recent years, but this has been financed mostly by deposits rather than flightier wholesale borrowing. Non-performing loans are equivalent to only 2% of total lending.
最近几年信贷年增长率急速增加到20%左右。但这一增长主要由存款拉动而不是流动性批发贷款。

Corporate balance-sheets are widely accepted to be stronger than they were during the Asian crisis.
较亚洲金融危机期间，法人财务状况表已被更广泛地接受。

Stricter regulation means that lenders are better at managing their own exposure to exchange-rate risk, too.
严格地管理意味着借贷人会更好地应对报表与汇率波动之间的关系。

Fitch, another ratings agency, notes that banks' net open positions average only 2% of their capital, well within the 20% maximum permitted at the end of each business day.
惠誉称银行的净末平仓合约平均只占其资产的2%，而每个营业日最多允许20%

Even so, change is coming to the industry.
即使是这样，这也给工业带来了改变。

Indonesia's banks have been among the world's most profitable in recent years.
最近几年，印度尼西亚银行已经成为了世界上最赚钱的银行。

As the economy slows, and banks put aside more provisions for bad loans, the years of effortlessly high returns are ending.
随着经济增速放缓,银行需要应对更多的不良贷款。银行的暴利时代已经终结。