经济学人下载:日本消费税 税收稳定经济

Finance and economics
财经商业

Japan's consumption tax
日本消费税

Taxonomics
税收稳定经济

A crucial rise in a controversial levy may be in doubt
争议税种，关键增税，何去何从，尚存疑问

THE Japanese are among the world's most reluctant taxpayers.
日本人是这个世界上最顽固的纳税人，

They reserve their deepest loathing for value-added tax.
他们对增值税怀有深深的怨念。

That may be because one of the inventors of VAT, Carl Shoup, an American economist, used them as guinea pigs for his new levy during the occupation after the second world war.
之所以如此是因为增值税的发明者，美国经济学家卡尔·苏泊在二战后美国占领日本期间拿日本做了这项新税法的试验品。

Japan soon scrapped VAT, reintroducing a consumption tax only in 1989.
日本人很快就废除了增值税，之后仅在1989年重新引入消费税。

This quickly became as hated as its foreign-imposed forerunner.
而消费税也很快成为日本人痛恨的外国人强加的税种。

The gaijin are watching again as Japan struggles to raise the consumption tax for only the second time since its introduction.
自引入消费税后，日本仅增加过两次，而这第二次增税就引来外国人的又一次关注。

The IMF, the OECD and local institutions all reckon a series of rises is the only way for Japan to control its gross public debt, approaching 250% of GDP.
国际货币基金组织、经济合作与发展组织以及日本国内机构都认为一系列的增税是日本控制国内债务的唯一方式了，日本国债已经达到GDP的250%。

The Democratic Party of Japan, which won legislative backing for the hike last year, argued that without it Japan could soon go the way of Greece.
去年赢得增税立法支持的日本民主党认为，消费税不提高，日本将很快陷入希腊那种境地。

Financial markets have counted on the tax rise going ahead despite a change of government since then.
自民主党增税立法之后，除了政府的一系列变革，整个日本金融市场都指着消费税上涨了。

This week the authorities surprised them by saying they would set up a panel to examine whether to proceed as planned.
不过本周令人惊讶的是，日本政府表示他们将设立小组来检查是否要按计划推进这一进程。

The plan is to lift the levy from 5% to 8% next April and to 10% in 2015.
按计划，到明年4月，消费税税率从目前的5%提高到8%；到2015年要达到10%。

That would bite just as Abenomics, a popular three-part plan to reflate the economy, designed by Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, is taking off.
这样将势必产生震荡。类似的效果可能如安倍经济学。安倍经济学是由安倍晋三首相设计，内含三项方案，旨在振兴日本经济。

The first two stages, a radical monetary loosening by the Bank of Japan and a generous fiscal stimulus, were aimed at jolting consumers out of their deflationary mindset and inspiring firms to invest.
安倍经济学前两项—由日本银行推行的激进的货币宽松政策和大手笔的财政刺激计划都旨在将消费者从通货紧缩中解脱出来并鼓励企业投资。

But so far it is mainly the urban wealthy and big firms that are benefiting.
但直到目前为止，主要还是城市富人阶层和大企业从中受益。

A consumption-tax increase, on the other hand, would immediately lighten all pockets.
另一方面，消费税的增长，则将立即清空民众的消费余力。

The fear is that a rise in revenues from the tax could be far outweighed by years of lost growth if consumers take fright.
有人担心，如果消费者因此恐慌的话，那么税收的增长带来的影响可能会比失去十年还要严重得多。

The only other consumption-tax rise, of 2% in 1997, was blamed for consigning Japan to a second lost decade, though this coincided with other events such as the Asian financial crisis.
日本另外一次上调消费税，即1997年上调到2%，虽然当时恰逢亚洲金融危机，但这还是被指责将日本带入第二个失去的十年之中。

Without counting broader knock-on effects, says Robert Feldman of Morgan Stanley, the 3% rise scheduled for 2014 would reduce GDP by over 1%.
摩根斯坦利的罗伯特·费尔德曼表示，如果不算上广泛的连锁效应，那么原计划2014年GDP增长3%的目标就要缩水到1%以上。

An alternative could be to lift the tax more gradually.
另一个可选方案就是放缓增税的脚步。

Koichi Hamada, an economist at Yale University who helped to design Abenomics, has said that the levy could be raised in increments of 1% over five years.
耶鲁大学经济学家，同时也是安倍经济学的设计者之一滨田弘一表示可以在未来五年内，消费税率提高1%。

Mr Abe's panel will study this option, among others.
安倍可以考虑这个选项。

As long as the tax is raised significantly in some way, says Naka Matsuzawa at Nomura Securities, the bond market would probably stay calm.
野村证券的松泽中表示，只要长远角度讲消费税得以提升，那么债券市场就会稳定下来。

Ditching the tax increase entirely remains unthinkable.
但要实现彻底抛弃增税是不可想象的。

Recent economic indicators, such as strong real annualised GDP growth of 4.1% in the first quarter, as well as a slightly improved jobs market, leave Mr Abe with little excuse but to go ahead.
最近的经济数据，比如第一季度GDP4.1%的强劲增幅以及就业市场的略微改善，都让安倍无法拿税收说事，但他又得将这一税改推行下去。

The BoJ this week added its voice to those pushing for a rise.
本周日本银行对增税呼声予以支持。

And taxpayers may be more accepting than the politicians think.
而纳税人或许也比政客们想象中更能接受增税。

An unscientific straw poll by The Economist found that seven out of ten shoppers in Ginza, a high-end shopping district, were ready for a tax increase, as narrowly preferable to a debt crisis.
本刊做了一项非科学民调，结果发现，在高档购物区东京银座有七成的购物者已经准备好迎接增税了，这一数据比起债务危机来说要稍高。