经济学人下载:新任联邦储备局长 鸽派主政

Finance and economics
财经商业

The new head of the Federal Reserve
新任联邦储备局长

Dove ascendant
鸽派主政

Janet Yellen will stick to her predecessor's expansionary policies
詹尼特将会继续推行前任扩张性经济政策

FOR most of the past few years, monetary policy has urged the economy on while dysfunctional fiscal policy has held it back.
过去的几年货币政策促进了美国经济的发展而运行不正常的财政政策却阻止其发展。

Barack Obama's decision to nominate Janet Yellen to succeed Ben Bernanke as the Fed's chairman in February raises the odds that stimulative monetary policy will continue.
巴拉克·奥巴马提名Janet Yellen 接过Ben Bernanke的衣钵于二月担任联邦储备局主席一职，这将加大继续推行刺激性的货币政策的优势。

But disquiet about that stance is growing.
然而人们对于这一立场的担忧不断增长。

In addition to being the first woman to run the Fed, Ms Yellen is also the first acknowledged dove.
她不仅是首位入主联邦储备局的女性，而且是著名的鸽派人物。

Presidents once felt compelled to appoint monetary-policy hawks such as Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan to reassure markets that the Fed would not succumb to the political system's inflationary bias.
总统为情况所迫曾任命鹰派强硬支持货币政策的Paul Volcker和Alan Greenspan确保市场运行良好，避免联邦储备局遭受来自政治体系的通货膨胀趋势。

In appointing Ms Yellen Mr Obama has implicitly acknowledged how much the world, and the Fed's priorities, have changed.
通过任命Ms Yellen，奥巴马含蓄地表明世界的转变，联邦储备局重心的转变。

Since 2008 America, like many other countries, has struggled with slack demand and high unemployment.
如许多其他国家一样，自2008年以来，美国一直为疲软的需求及较高的失业率所困扰。

Meanwhile, energy prices excluded, inflation has persistently fallen short of the Fed's 2% target.
与此同时，排除能源价格的影响，通货膨胀率一直未能达到联邦储备局2%的目标。

Ms Yellen is not alone in believing that unemployment is a bigger problem than inflation.
并非Ms Yellen一人认为较之通货膨胀失业率居高不下是更为严重的问题，

So do most of her colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee, through which the Fed sets interest rates.
她很多在联邦公开市场政策委员会制定联邦利率的同事也这么认为。

But she has felt that way longer and more strongly.
但她比他们更早更强烈地意识到这一点。

She pushed publicly last year to hold interest rates near zero for longer than the Fed then planned, to hasten the fall in unemployment, even if that caused inflation to rise briefly above 2%.
去年她公开推进利率趋零以促进就业降低失业率，使这一货币政策比联邦计划的时间要长，即便这一行动使通胀率高于2%。

She was the principal author of the Fed's current statement of long-term goals and operating principles, which stresses the equal importance of its twin statutory goals of full employment and low inflation.
她是此次联邦现行长远目标及管理原则的主要推行者，这一政策将促进就业和压低通胀率这两个法定目标置于同等重要的地位。

As vice-chairman, Ms Yellen helped Mr Bernanke nudge the FOMC towards its commitments to keep its benchmark interest rate at zero at least until unemployment has dropped to 6.5% and to keep buying $85 billion-worth of bonds a month with newly printed money until the labour market has improved substantially.
过去作为联邦储备局副主席，Ms Yellen协助Mr Bernanke推进联邦公开市场政策委员会实践其承诺，保持基准利率为零的状态直至失业率至少降至6.5%，继续印刷新钱购买850亿美元的债券直至劳动力市场情况持续好转。

These policies have not fuelled inflation, as hawks feared they might.
这些政策并没有像鹰派预估的那样加速通胀。

Indeed, Ms Yellen would probably welcome having to tighten due to inflationary pressure, because that would mean demand was buoyant.
的确，要是通胀压力过大，Ms Yellen势必会实施紧缩的货币政策，因为这意味着市场需求旺盛。

But hawks still worry that the Fed is distorting prices in financial markets, breeding excessive risk-taking and preventing investors in Treasury bonds from demanding fiscal discipline.
然而鹰派依然担心联邦储备局打乱了金融市场的价格，导致过多的风险从而使投资者因为繁多的财政纪律放弃购买国库券。

Such concerns are widespread among Republicans in the Senate.
参议院的共和党人普遍担心这一趋势。

Several voted against her nomination to be vice-chairman in 2010.
2010年几个议员在提名她为联邦储备局副主席时投了反对票。

She was not particularly modest about the role of monetary policy in the economy and I don't see any evidence that that's changed, one such Republican, Bob Corker ofTennessee, said this week.
一位来自田纳西州的共和党议员Bob Corker本周称，对于货币政策在经济中所扮演的角色，Yellen似乎不是很审慎，并且我并没有看到她作出的改变。

With the support of the Senate's Democratic majority, Ms Yellen is almost certain to be confirmed.
因为得到参议院大多数民主党议员的支持，Ms Yellen在联邦储备局的地位已经确立。

But with many Republicans opposed, she will probably get fewer than the 70 votes Mr Bernanke did for his second term in 2010, at the time the lowest on record for a Fed chairman.
但由于许多共和党人反对，她的得票很可能会比Bernanke2010年连任时的70票更低，而这在当时创造了联邦储备局主席最低的得票率记录。

Moreover, one of the seven seats on the Fed's board is vacant and another five may come up for grabs in the coming year, given expirations and the tug of other opportunities.
此外，联邦董事会7个席位尚有一个空缺，在下一年换届时，倘若还有其他有利机会将有5人竞争该席位。

The weight of opinion within the institution could change markedly as a result.
因此，联邦储备局内部观点很可能会带来巨大转变。

Minutes of the Fed's last meeting, in September, show that it is already divided on QE.
联邦储备局9月份的会议记录显示，人们对量化宽松的货币政策已有分歧。

Many officials wanted to slow its pace.
很多官员想要放缓量化宽松的步伐。

But the view that the economy was not strong enough prevailed, and the Fed surprised the market by sticking to its current pace of bond-buying.
然而经济状况并不允许紧缩货币政策的观点盛行，联邦继续推行现行证券交易的步伐出乎市场的预测。

Once in office, Ms Yellen is likely to pursue a gentle taper coupled with a firm commitment to keep interest rates at zero.
一旦就任，Yellen很可能会追求趋缓温和的货币政策但是会坚持维持利率为零。

If the economy falters—an all-too-real possibility givenAmerica's budget mess—she may want to increase QE, but might struggle to persuade her colleagues.
倘若经济衰退—美国混乱的经济预算负主要责任—她可能会提高量化宽松的程度，但她要费力地说服她的同事们支持她。

The Fed's strength, she said in accepting the nomination, is its capacity to vigorously debate diverse views, and then to unite.
在接受任命的时候，她说联邦储备局的优势在于它能够让不同的观点相互辩论最后获得统一。

Maintaining that trait may be her biggest challenge.
而发扬这种优良传统或许是她面临的最大挑战。