经济学人下载:旅游与经济

Tourism and the economy

旅游与经济

Easy come, easy go

来也匆匆去也匆匆

Booming post-Olympics tourism won’t boost the economy as much as hoped

蓬勃发展的后奥运旅游不会如期望那样提振经济

Sep 28th 2013 |From the print edition

BRITONS have had some good economic news to celebrate over the past few months. Unemployment is falling, house prices in England hit a record high in July and economic output appears to be growing at its fastest pace since 2010.

过去几个月英国人有很多利好的经济新闻值得庆祝。失业率在下降，7月英格兰的房价创下历史新高，GDP呈现自2010年来的最快增速。

At first glance Britain’s tourism industry appears to be contributing to the economic bounce. Data released this month by the Office for National Statistics suggest that there has been a big increase in foreign tourists visiting Britain since London hosted the Olympics last year. In the first seven months of 2013, foreign visitor numbers rose by 4%, compared with the same period in 2012, and spending was up 12%. In July 2013 foreign visitors spent 30% more than in July 2012, setting a new record.

乍一看，英国的旅游业对经济反弹有所贡献。英国国家统计局本月公布的数据表明，自去年伦敦举办奥运会以来前往英国旅游的外国游客数量大增。2013年的前7个月相比2012年同期外国游客数量增加了4%，游客花费也增加了12%。2013年7月外国游客花费比去年同期增加了30%，创下了新纪录。

Hotels and attractions nationwide say they are benefiting from the unexpected boost in the tourist trade. According to data produced by STRGlobal, a consultancy, hotel-occupancy rates rose in nearly every English region in the first half of 2013. London, in particular, has seen a surge in foreign tourists since the Olympics ended: hotel-occupancy rates in the capital jumped by seven percentage points to 89% in June compared with a year earlier.

全国范围内的旅馆和旅游景点表示他们从旅游贸易意想不到的增加中受益。据咨询公司STRGlobal的数据显示，2013年前半年英国所有区域的酒店入住率都有所上升。尤其是伦敦的外国游客数量激增，奥运会结束以来，六月份伦敦的酒店入住率从去年的7%增加到89%。

The government has been quick to attribute the tourism boom to the Olympics, in an effort to justify some of the ￡8.9 billion ($14.3 billion) spent staging them. There may be some truth in this. Visits from countries keen on the Olympics increased the most: up by 24% from Latin America and 11% from China, compared with growth of 1% from Europe and a fall of 4% in visitors from North America, according to VisitBritain, a tourism quango.

政府迅速将这归因于奥运会的旅游热潮，努力为奥运会高达89亿英镑（143亿美元）的花费辩护。可能有一些道理。根据旅游半官方机构旅游英国的数据，来自热衷于奥运会国家的游客数量增长最多，相比欧洲增长的1%和北美4%的下降，来自拉丁美洲的游客数量增长了24%，来自中国的游客数量增长了11%。

Will this post-Olympics surge in visitors attracted to Britain contribute much to its economic recovery? The net impact of tourism on output depends not only on how much cash foreign visitors spend, but also on what Britons spend abroad. And although record amounts are being spent in Britain by foreign tourists, Britons have upped their spending on foreign holidays by a similar amount. So far for 2013, the gap between what Britain earns and spends on tourism has remained around the same since the summer of 2011 (see chart). The average monthly tourism deficit for January to July 2013 was ￡1.125 billion, only ￡7m less than the previous two years’ average. And in spite of the influx of tourist cash this year, the tourism deficit this summer is still higher than during the Olympics.

后奥运会英国游客激增会对英国经济复苏带来很大的贡献吗？旅游增长的净影响不仅取决于外国游客的消费，同时取决于英国游客出国的花费。尽管外国游客在英国的花费创了纪录，英国人在国外度假的消费也创下了相似的纪录。到2013年的目前为止，英国人在旅游上的花费和收入的差距一直跟2011年夏天没什么变化（见表）。2013年1月至7月的平均月旅游赤字为11.25亿英镑，只比上两年的平均水平少700万英镑。尽管今年大量现金从旅游业涌入，今年夏天的旅游赤字仍高于奥运会期间。

Trading what Britain has lots of—rain and heritage—for reliable sunshine, which it lacks, may be no bad thing for most Britons. But tourism will have less to offer the economic recovery unless more Britons can be persuaded to holiday at home rather than overseas. Alas, selling rainy Britain abroad may prove easier than selling it to Britons themselves.

将英国的阴雨和遗产同其缺乏的阳光作交换对大多数英国人来说没什么坏处。但是除非更多的英国人选择在本土度假，不然旅游业对英国经济复苏的影响将会很小。可惜的是，将阴雨连绵的英国推销给外国人比卖给自己人容易多了。