经济学人下载:港币 现在入手还是1983年那个价格

Finance and economics
财经商业

The Hong Kong dollar
港币

Buy now at 1983 prices
现在入手还是1983年那个价格

After 30 years, Hong Kong's peg to the American dollar is still going strong
三十年后的今天,港币汇率稳定不变将继续走强

The skyline has changed but the exchange rate hasn't.
楼高可以变,但是汇率不行。

WHATEVER exchange-rate system a country has, it will wish at some times that it had another one, according to Stanley Fischer, a former central banker.
不论一个国家有什么样的汇率系统，它一定会时不时希望能变成另一个国家的汇率，前任以色列央行行长Stanley Fischer这么说过。

Many countries find it hard to cope with a floating currency and even harder to stick to a fixed one.
很多国家发现应对一个浮动汇率很难，但是更难的是守住一个固定的浮动汇率。

It is therefore remarkable thatHong Kongthis week celebrated the 30th anniversary of its currency's peg to the dollar.
因此港币汇率保持不变三十周年令人瞩目。

This crude but effective system was adopted on October 17th 1983 to stop a currency crisis.
香港在1983年10月17号采用了这一简单却有效的体系成功阻止了汇率危机。

Since then it has survived three American recessions, SARS and Soros, a fabled currency speculator, who attacked the peg during the Asian financial crisis.
自那以后，港币在三次冲击—非典，索罗斯基金冲击，虚构资金投机者，面对亚洲金融危机里美元衰退的情形下屹立不倒。

In recent yearsHong Kong's peg has come under upward,not downward pressure.
最近几年，港币的稳定是归功于向上的冲劲而不是向下的压力。

In maintaining its fixed rate to the dollar,Hong Konghas imported the Federal Reserve's easy monetary policy despite its healthier economy.
尽管香港经济更加有活力，它还是一直套用美联储的宽松货币政策来维持它的固定汇率。

The result has been high inflation and surging home prices.
结果便是高通胀和高涨的房价。

Even as its economy has diverged from America's, it has converged with that of the rest ofChina.
尽管经济已和美国分道扬镳，但是香港早就联合中国大陆。

Yet theHong Kongdollar and the yuan have been growing apart.
现在港币和人民币分别都在成长。

The Hong Kong dollar's peg was once also a tight link to the yuan, which was itself pegged toAmerica's currency.
港币的稳定一度和人民币有紧密的联系,而人民币本身就和美元的汇率挂钩。

But sinceChinamodified the peg, the yuan has appreciated by over a third.
但是自从中国修改了汇率,人民币升值了将近三成。

As Mr Fischer suggested, some economists now wish thatHong Konghad another system.
正如同Mr.Fischer暗示的，一些经济学家现在希望香港换一套系统。

It could, for example, let its exchange rate crawl upwards to curb inflation, asSingaporedoes.
例如，它可以是让汇率缓慢上升来控制通胀，就像新加坡做的那样。

Or it could track the rising yuan.
或者它可以追随人民币那样升值。

Eventually it could even adopt the mainland's currency; over 10% of bank deposits inHong Kongare already in yuan.
最后它可能甚至会采用大陆的汇率；将近10%的香港存款现在已经是以人民币为单位了。

But these alternatives have drawbacks of their own.
但是这些选择本身也是有自身缺陷的。

Chinamay now dominateHong Kong's trade, but much of that trade is still priced in dollars, points out Li-Gang Liu of ANZ, a bank.
澳新银行的刘利军指出，中国可能现在控制着香港的贸易，然而大部分贸易仍然用美元标价。

Besides, the yuan's value is still fixed each morning by China's central bank, and yuan assets are fenced in by capital controls.
除此之外，中国央行仍然保持人民币的价值不变，那样通过资产控制来保护人民币资产。

Pegging to an inconvertible yuan could destroyHong Kong's role as an international financial centre, Mr Liu argues.
刘利军说道，坚持不变的人民币汇率可能会摧毁掉香港作为国际金融中心的地位。

Over timeHong Konghas adapted to some of the peg's constraints.
随着时间的迁移，香港已经适应了一些汇率不变的限制。

Its exchange rate may be rigid, but its other prices and wages are remarkably flexible.
它的汇率可能是僵硬的，但是它的其他价格和工资却是惊人的灵活变化。

During the financial crisis, even senior civil servants took a pay cut.
在金融危机下，甚至是高级公务员都减薪。

This flexibility allows the economy to adjust quickly to cyclical ups and downs without the help of an independent monetary policy.
这种灵活性就保证了经济迅速调整到周期性的涨伏里，从而不需要单独的货币政策帮忙。

Prices, particularly for property, do sometimes take on a life of their own.
价格，尤其对于财产，有时确实有他们自己的生命。

But a more flexible exchange rate is not enough by itself to prevent asset-price booms:Singapore's house prices have also soared despite its strengthening currency.
但是更加灵活的汇率政策还不足够通过自身来避免资产价格爆炸：尽管新加坡有强势的汇率，它的房价也已经被炒起来了。

And in some cases the currency itself can be the asset that takes off.
并且在一些情况下汇率本身就会让资产缩水。

The Swiss franc, for example, strengthened dramatically during the euro crisis, prompting its central bank to intervene.
例如，瑞士法郎，在欧债危机里戏剧化的走高，刺激了它的央行去干预。

As nearby countries like India and Indonesia fret about capital outflows and plunging currencies, the stability offered by Hong Kong's peg looks as good on its 30th birthday as it ever has.
就像印度，印尼这些附近的国家就对资本外流和汇率突降感到烦忧，香港的货币稳定性永远看起来像它三十岁生日那样美。