经济学人下载:通货膨胀 价格是一块心病

Finance and economics Inflation
财经商业 通货膨胀

The price is a blight
价格是一块心病

The rich world, and especially the euro zone, risks harmfully low inflation
欧元区，富人世界，正遭受低通胀率的困袭

WHEN central banks adopted quantitative easing and other unorthodox means to buoy economies holed by the financial crisis, many feared that the result would be out-of-control inflation.
当央行采取了量化宽松政策并采取其他的非常规手段去刺激被经融危机滞涩的经济时，很多人担心这结果会是失控的通货膨胀。

Asset prices have certainly soared.
金融资产的价格会随之飙升。

But consumer prices have not.
但消费价格不会。

Indeed, the growing fear is that rich countries may be entering a twilight zone of ultra-low inflation.
确切地说，这是人们逐渐害怕富裕国家的经济进入一个介于高通胀和低通胀之间的模糊区域。

A downward lurch has been most notable in the euro area, where annual inflation dropped from an already low 1.1% in September to 0.7% in October; a year ago it stood at 2.5%.
最显著的下降发生在欧元区，那里年通胀率由一年前的2.5%在9月份掉到1.1%，在10月份掉到0.7%。

It is now a percentage point lower than the European Central Bank's inflation target of below but close to 2%.
现在它的通胀率还是地狱欧洲央行的通胀目标值略低于2%。

The ECB lowered its main policy rate to 0.5% in May; on November 7th its governing council, responding to the weak inflation figures, reduced the interest rate further, to 0.25%.
欧洲央行在五月份削弱了整体税率政策到0.5%；在11月7号，管理委员会进一步减少利率到0.25%。这个委员会专门负责弱势通胀情况。

Elsewhere, too, inflation is low and falling.
在别处也是一样，通胀率很低而且持续下滑。

Almost five years after the Federal Reserve led the way with quantitative easing, inflation is well below the Fed's 2% target.
美联储实行量化宽松政策后大约五年时间，通胀率已经很稳定的保持在2%以下的目标。

In August this wider measure stood at little more than 1%. Across the G7 economies, inflation has been weak this year and has recently fallen back to 1.3%; a year ago it was 1.8%.
8月，这项更宽广的措施让通胀率维持在略高于1%。纵观七国集团的经济，通货膨胀在今年持续弱势并且最近掉到1.3%；一年前是1.8%。

Even inBritain, which has the highest inflation in both the G7 and the European Union, the rate has been broadly stable this year.
就是英国，通胀今年保持总体稳定，在7国集团和欧盟里，有着最高的通胀率达到2.7%。

Slack energy prices have contributed to recent declines in overall inflation.
下滑的能源价格对最近整体通胀下滑也有一定影响。

That is a welcome development, boosting the purchasing power of both businesses and households.
这是一个受欢迎的进展，刺激了购买力，不管是对于商业还是房产。

But core inflation, which by excluding the more volatile elements of energy and food offers a surer guide to underlying price pressures, tells a less heartening story.
但是核心通胀，它排除了更多的挥发元素，如能源、食品，给物价压力垫定了更厚实的基础，这无疑是令人不那么振奋的消息。

Across the G7 core consumer-price inflation has been stuck over the past year at 1.4%.
纵观七国集团的核心消费者价格，去年通胀持续卡在1.4%。

On the Fed's measure it is just 1.2%.
在联邦储备系统的调控下，它只有1.2%。

And in the euro zone, core inflation has fallen over the past year from 1.5% to 0.8%, matching the record low of early 2010.
并且在欧元区，核心通胀率已经由去年的1.5%降到0.8%，与2010年的低纪录一致。

One bright spot that has helped to keep G7 inflation from falling further isJapan, where the reflationary drive of Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, is stoking hopes that the past decade and a half of deflation may at last be coming to an end.
日本帮助七国集团只住通胀下滑趋势是一大亮点，它的通货再膨胀的驱动者，安倍晋三首相，正使人们燃起希望，过去十五年的通货紧缩可能最终结束。

Overall inflation has risen to 1.1%—higher than in the euro area—and core inflation is now at zero.
整体的通胀会升到1.1%—比欧元区高—并且核心通胀现在处于0。

But the immense difficulty that successive Japanese governments have encountered in trying to escape the shackles of deflation serves as a warning of the danger of letting inflation fall too low.
但是历任日本政府所面临的巨大困难是，在尝试避免通货紧缩的桎梏时，不想充当危险警报器，让通胀降得太低。

Once people start to anticipate declining rather than rising prices, it can be very hard to reverse their expectations.
但一度人们开始预期价格下跌而不是升高，所以很难扭转人们的预期。

Abandoning reserve
撤销储备金

That danger is less acute in Americathan in the euro area largely because the Fed is more proactive than the ECB.
与欧元区相比，在美国没有那么严重的危机，很大程度上因为美联储比欧洲央行更有前瞻性。

It surprised the markets in September by sustaining quantitative easing at its present pace of 85 billion of asset-purchases a month, rather than starting to curb it.
9月，它延续量化宽松政策，也就是每个月不去限制资产购买而是用850亿美元购买资产的步幅，让市场振奋起来。

A study by economists at the Federal Reserve, published this week, has fuelled speculation that it may keep interest rates at rock bottom even longer by lowering the level of unemployment at which it will consider rate increases from the current 6.5%.
这星期出版的美联储经济学家们的研究结论使投资充满动力，它可能会更久地保持低利率在一个最低点，措施是降低失业率，因为失业会将利率从现行的6.5%提高。

By contrast, the euro area looks increasingly vulnerable to a slide into deflation.
相比而言，欧元区的经济看起来更容易受通货紧缩的冲击。

Although the region emerged this spring from a painfully protracted double-dip recession, the recovery is expected to be a feeble one.
尽管，欧元区在经历痛苦而蛮长的双底衰退之后迎来了复苏，复苏的程度仍被预期很微弱无力。

GDP will fall by 0.4% this year and rise by only 1.1% in 2014, according to forecasts from the European Commission published on November 5th.
根据欧洲委员会在11月5号的展望，今年GDP会降到0.4%，在2014年也只能上涨1.1%。

Such weak growth is unlikely to overcome the forces pushing inflation down.
这样缓慢的增长不可能扭转让通胀率下滑的颓势。

Output will remain well below its full potential next year, estimates the commission; all that idle capacity acts as a drag on prices.
委员会分析明年的出口量将很可能持续低迷；所有闲置的生产力将会对价格起到副作用。

Unemployment across the euro area will stay stuck at a woefully high 12.2%, which will keep wages down.
整个欧元区的失业率会持续卡在令人痛苦的12.2%上，这无疑会让工资水平下降。

The strength of the euro will also exert a downward pull.
欧洲整体的购买力将会下滑。

It has been trading this week at 1.35, more than 5% higher than a year ago; on a trade-weighted basis it is 8% higher.
本周它与美元的汇率处在1比1.35，比去年高5%；从贸易加权上看高了8%。

Very low inflation in the euro zone makes it much more difficult for uncompetitive countries, predominantly in southernEurope, to regain lost ground.
欧元区的极低通胀使无竞争力的国家更加艰难回复兴盛，尤其是南欧的国家们。

Workers tend to resist nominal cuts in pay more fiercely than they do the subtler erosion of their income through inflation.
工人们怀有抵制心态，他们需要名义上付更多的钱，这样就很微妙地侵蚀了工资额度。

If inflation in the countries with which the weak economies trade is high, they can improve their competitiveness simply by keeping their rate lower.
如果一个国家里的通胀是建立在脆弱经济和高贸易量上，他们只要保持低税率就可以提高竞争力。

That is in essence howGermanygained a big edge in the first decade of the euro.
这就是前十年德国在欧洲占有重要地位的关键。

But with overall inflation so low, peripheral countries must instead adjust through outright deflation or something close to it, meaning a freeze or absolute cuts in wages.
但是整体的通胀率如此低下，小国家们必须作出调整，不能使经济完全通货紧缩或是接近这样。否则就意味着工资的冻结或大幅度降薪。

Already, in September, when euro-wide inflation was 1.1%, prices were falling by 1% inGreece.
9月份，整个欧元区通胀率为1.1%，希腊的物价已下跌了1%。

They were flat inIrelandand rising by just 0.3% inPortugal.
爱尔兰保持平稳，葡萄牙升高了0.3%。

A sustained period of deflation would be particularly hard on the euro zone's periphery, weighed down by debt.
处在欧元区边缘的国家持续的通货紧缩很难抑制，它们被债务拖累；

Cyprus,Ireland,PortugalandSpainhave high public and private debt;Greece and Italyhave high public debt.
塞浦路斯，爱尔兰，葡萄牙和西班牙哟很高的公共债务和私人债务。希腊和意大利有着很高的公共债务。

When prices are falling, debt, which is fixed in nominal terms, becomes more onerous in real terms.
当价格下跌时，债务在合约上不变，就会使它们负担更重。

Higher inflation, in contrast, makes escaping heavy debt much less burdensome.
更高的通胀，相反会让他们逃离沉重债务，减轻很大负担。

Central banks have had to move beyond past orthodoxies in order to coax a modest recovery from the ruins of the financial crisis.
央行已经超越了正统做法，目的是引导出一个温和的经济复苏，拯救被金融危机破坏的经济。

Now, to avoid the blight of stagnating or falling prices, they may have to venture still further into unconventional territory.
现在，要避免经济发展的滞涩或是下跌的物价他们可能必须进一步冒险，去探索非常规领域。