经济学人下载:巴基斯坦的军事力量 失去驾驶权的司机

Asia
亚洲中国

Pakistan's armed forces
巴基斯坦的军事力量

Out of the driving seat
失去驾驶权的司机

The prime minister wants to put the army in its place
巴基斯坦的总统想要把军队置于此地。

IT IS said that the army chief is the most powerful man in Pakistan.
据称军队总司令是巴基斯坦权利最大的人。

Even so, the prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, made a point of keeping the new head waiting for as long as possible.
至于说， 侯赛因总统提出想见这位总司令都要加入其等待长队的行列。

Breaking with the convention that gives the new chief a month or two to prepare, Mr Sharif named a successor just two days before the outgoing chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, a former spymaster turned double-term army chief, was due to retire.
被中断的大会告诉新总统，给他两个月去准备，在前任军方总司令离职后，侯赛因总统任命了继承人。前总司令卡亚尼曾任一位担任两个军队的司令，前任间谍领头。他面临退休而不得不离开岗位。

Lieutenant General Raheel Sharif will now control not only a vast army and the world's fastest-growing nuclear arsenal, but a business empire ranging from cornflakes to luxury housing.
拉赫利·谢里夫不将会主宰多方位的军队，还会掌权逐渐扩张的核能军火库。

So why the delay?
为什么推迟了如此久才定音？

The prime minister is not always decisive, and bear in mind that the last time he picked an army chief, Pervez Musharraf in 1998, his appointee ousted him in a coup a year later.
总统也不是神，永远能够很快地做出有效的决定。在1988年，在经过慎重考虑之后，侯赛因总统任命佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫作为军方总司令，而他的上司，那个指定他的人，在过后的几年将他罢职。

Others, however, suspect an attempt by Mr Sharif to assert civilian authority over an army that needs to be put in its place.
有些人怀疑谢里夫想要维持文官权利高于军队，所以不得不做到这步。

The army sees itself as both embodiment and guarantor of the nation.
军队认为他们是既国家的捍卫者又是国家的化身。

Yet it has long been at the root of Pakistan's deepest problems.
尽管这长时间以来一直是巴基斯坦最根本的问题。

By meddling in elections and mounting coups, it has weakened the political classes, whose consequent ineptitude and corruption gives it cause to meddle again.
通过一系列的干预竞选和愈加剧烈的政变，政治阶级已经被削弱。而紧接着的便是无能和不称职公仆和不断的贿赂，这又导致了再一次政治干预。

It has a history of disastrous military adventures.
在历史上记载着一次军队灾难性的经历。

And it has made common cause with militant Islamists who it hoped would further its interests abroad—keeping India on edge to the south and sowing confusion in Afghanistan to the north in hopes of preventing anti-Pakistan forces growing there.
而原因是同样的—穆斯林军人想要对外扩张，取得更多利益—把印度置于南方的边际，在阿富汗的北面散布迷惑信息，以防止反巴基斯坦势力上涨。

The country is now paying a terrible price for its sponsorship of foreign terror.
目前，巴基斯坦在国际反恐活动中提供了高得离谱的资助，

It has spawned dozens of local extremist groups attacking Pakistan itself.
这却导致多数的巴基斯坦本地极端分子集团攻击本国人。

Since 2001 nearly 50,000 Pakistanis have died in terror-related violence.
自2001年起，已经有五十万巴基斯坦人民由于恐怖分子引发的相关犯罪事件而死亡。

For a long time the generals refused to see the Islamists for the threat they are.
很长一段时间来，高层们一直不承认穆斯林分子对他们来说是一个威胁的存在。

Officers from the army's spy wing, Inter-Services Intelligence, were probably involved in funding and planning deadly attacks in Mumbai in 2008 carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba.
2008年，一群出自情报局的军方间谍在孟买被虔诚军袭击致死。

General Kayani may have been as bad as the rest.
当时的总司令卡亚尼可能已经看出其他穆斯林分子也将跟虔诚军一样顽劣。

While he was rising to the top, the Afghan Taliban regrouped, the Mumbai attacks were planned, and Osama bin Laden settled in a garrison town.
于是当他的权利处于上位时，阿富汗塔利班的军队被重新部署，孟买袭击在当时也开始进行策划。当时本拉登被安置在驻防区的小镇里。

Yet along the way the soldier-spy grew into the pragmatist committed to getting the army out of the driving seat and nurturing Pakistan's return to democracy.
然而，伪装成士兵的间谍务实地保证，要将军队撵出独裁，主导之位，要使巴基斯坦重回民主之路。

He and Mr Sharif seem to have got on, while the Americans respected him.
此人和总司令已有交手，而美国人表现出更尊重他。

Crucially, says Asad Munir, a retired ISI brigadier, he began to understand the nature of the existential threat posed by militant Islam.
重要的是，前情报局参谋长穆尼尔说，他已经明白，目前存在的威胁本质就是穆斯林军人。

Military force is required to take it on, particularly in North Waziristan, a tribal area which an alphabet soup of al-Qaeda affiliates have made their base.
军方势力要求要掌握在手，特别是部落地区北瓦齐里斯坦，是一碗基于附属基地组织的字母汤

General Sharif's appointment was a surprise.
总司令谢里夫的任命是很令人惊讶的。

But the good news is that he shares General Kayani's thinking on domestic militancy.
但是值得一喜的是，他前前总司令卡亚尼交流了关于国内军事力量的想法。

In charge of army training, he was closely involved in efforts to retool an army trained for set-piece battles with India for counter-insurgency in the country's wild tribal west.
他想要接近于重组一支训练有素的军队，为巴基斯坦西面广阔的部落地带与印度的反动起义战争定下筹码。

Like General Kayani, he knows first-hand the futility of peace accords that militant groups soon renege on.
前总司令卡亚尼知道，无战争代价的和平定将带来无效的回应——对方军队一定很快就会食言。

The problem is that the prime minister has yet to produce a national counter-terrorism strategy and says peace talks must be tried first.
而问题就是，侯赛因总统已经将国内反恐怖主义战略定案，同时宣称，必须先保证和平。

It is a cause with minimal chance of success, but one hotly promoted by much of the political establishment.
尽管这只是一个非常难以成功的方案，但是政治大量完善与建成被激烈地推崇。

Many more innocent lives may have to be lost before the politicians find the nerve for a military solution.
在政治家发想要运用军事能够解决问题之前，可能很多无辜的生命都将面临着牺牲。

Elsewhere irritation with civilian government is already flowering among junior officers. But there is no mood to take over.
公民政府的无理取闹已经在老一辈的官员里传开，可是没有人有此闲情雅致去掌权。

Mr Musharraf's eight years in power were a disaster.
穆沙拉夫八年执政便是场灾难军方不可挑战的高高权威已经引起了广播的大肆宣传。

The army's once-unchallenged authority has leeched away to a set of rambunctiousbroadcast media, an activist supreme court and civilian politicians who this year successfully transferred power from one elected government to another—a first for Pakistan. Good governance is the best way for civilian rulers to keep the army off their backs.
一位最高法院激进的官员第在巴基斯坦在一个政府的倒戈，另一个政权的崛起之下，成功转移了自己的实力。 对于秩序制定者来说，一个好的政府应该把军队控制之下而非之上。

Still, the army can always play a spoiling game, especially when it comes to relations with India.
依然地，军队一直在玩扫兴的游戏，特别是在与印度的关系上。

It makes no secret of despising Mr Sharif's enthusiasm for a rapid normalisation of relations, and opposes a crucial free-trade deal.
这是正大光明地鄙视谢里夫热忱于对社会秩序的塑造，反对自由贸易的重要则曾。

And even as Mr Sharif dreams of visa-less travel across the Indo-Pakistani border, after years of relative calm the ceasefire line in contested Kashmir has become hot again.
就当谢里夫梦想穿越巴基斯坦-印度边际不需要签证时，缓和多年熄战线现在又热了起来。

The officers probably deserve some of the blame for that.
以这方面而言，责备，是政府应得的。