经济学人下载:阿里埃勒·沙龙 也许会有人怀念他

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Ariel Sharon
阿里埃勒·沙龙

He may be missed
也许会有人怀念他

Israel needed—and still needs—a man like Ariel Sharon to bludgeon a path to peace
以色列曾经需要—现在依旧需要—像阿里埃勒·沙龙那样的人去为和平开路

HOW strange that a man widely reviled for most of his adult life as a warmonger, even by many of his fellow Israelis, might have been the one to bring about a lasting peace between Jews and Arabs—and a proper state for Palestine—had he survived in fair health for another five years or so as prime minister.
一个人被视为好战分子，广受批评，甚至许多批评来自他的以色列同胞，但如果他能健康地作为总理多撑5年，就最有可能为犹太人和阿拉伯人带来持久和平，这是多不可思议啊。

Ariel Sharon, who died on January 11th after lying in a coma for eight years following a stroke that struck him down at the height of his political powers, was a man of moral as well as physical courage.
阿里埃勒·沙龙正处于政治权利巅峰时，中风突然来袭，陷入昏迷8年之后，他于1月11日去世。

He was a man of vision, too—an example to the current prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu.
沙龙道德高尚，无所畏惧，他还富有远见卓识，是现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡之榜样。

For many years Mr Sharon saw Israelas a fortress to be defended so ferociously that no Arab could hope to destroy it.
在许多年里，沙龙都视以色列为堡垒，要坚决捍卫，不给阿拉伯人任何摧毁堡垒的希望。

When, as prime minister, he dramatically changed tack by deciding to evacuate the Gaza Strip, evicting thousands of Jewish settlers for whom he had previously been the doughtiest champion, he faced down Israel's hard right.
在总理任上，沙龙的路线大幅改变，压住了以色列的强硬右翼势力，决定疏散加沙地带，让几千犹太定居者从加沙撤出，这些犹太定居者之前曾视沙龙为最坚定的领袖。

It was an act of courage as well as pragmatism.
这一举动既需要勇气，又要有务实精神。

At the time he sought to persuade the outraged settlers and their influential lobby that he would not then proceed to wrest the West Bankfrom their grip, handing it back to the Palestinians as the basis of their state.
沙龙当时试图说服愤怒的定居者及其势力强大的说客团，称他不会将约旦河西岸从他们手中拿走，让巴勒斯坦人作为建国的基础。

But he might well have changed his mind on this score, too.
但沙龙在这一事上可能也改变了主意。

The dilemma Mr Sharon had the courage to confront in 2005 is the same one that Mr Netanyahu keep on running away from.
2005年沙龙有勇气去直面困境，但内塔尼亚胡却一直在逃避这种困境。

If Israelis to remain a democracy, it cannot indefinitely occupy theWest Bankwhile also denying the Palestinians full political rights in a Greater Israel.
如果以色列依然要以民主国家的形式存在，它就不能一直占着约旦河西岸，同时又否认巴勒斯坦人在大以色列中具有完全政治权利。

Yet a Palestinian majority—and the demography is heading that way—would mean the end ofIsraelas a predominantly Jewish state.
然而，如果巴勒斯坦人成为多数—在人口分布上也正逐渐如此—就意味着以色列不再是一个犹太人为主的国家。

If Israel wants to remain both Jewish and a democracy, the only workable alternative is to give the Palestinians a state of their own, thereby accepting that Israel must vacate most of that hallowed land on the West Bank. Giving upGazawas the first step.
如果以色列既要保持犹太性质，又要实行民主，唯一可行的方案是给巴勒斯坦人一个自己的国家，因此也就需要以色列清空多数约旦河西岸被视为神圣的土地。放弃加沙是第一步。

What Mr Sharon would have done, nobody knows for certain.
没人能确切知道，如果沙龙仍在，他会怎么做。

Ehud Olmert, who succeeded Mr Sharon at the head of the party he founded, came tantalisingly close to clinching a deal on theWest Bank.
接替沙龙成为其所创党派首脑的埃胡德·奥尔默特几乎就促成了关于约旦河西岸的协议。

Looking at other comparably bloodstained conflicts, the most durable peace deals tend to be reached by seasoned warriors rather than doe-eyed pacifists.
参照其它流血冲突，最持久的和平协议多由经验丰富的战士促成，而不是由天真的和平主义者。

Can Bibi match Arik?
内塔尼亚胡能及沙龙否？

Mr Netanyahu, an artful populist serving his third stint as prime minister, is neither warrior nor pacifist.
内塔尼亚胡是精明的民粹派，现在是其第三任总理任期，他既非战士，也不是和平主义者。

In theory, he has accepted that only a proper Palestinian state will secureIsrael's future, but he has failed to show the enthusiasm and flexibility needed to achieve it.
理论上，他接受只有建立正常的巴勒斯坦国才能保证以色列的未来安全这样的观点，但是他没有实现这一目标所需的热情和灵活性。

The settlements keep expanding.
定居点的范围还在扩大。

Even now, withAmerica's secretary of state, John Kerry, as mediator, the Likud party led by Mr Netanyahu has yet officially to accept the idea of a two-state solution.
即使是现在，在美国国务卿约翰·克里的斡旋下，内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团也没有正式结束双国家方案。

And he has other excuses.
内塔尼亚胡还有其他理由。

Like Mr Sharon, he is boxed in by powerful extremists in his ruling coalition; the head of one of his main partner-parties is dead against it.
跟沙龙一样，他在执政联盟内有来自强势的极端主义者的压力，他其中一个主要合作政党的首脑就坚决反对两国方案。

The Palestinians are weak and divided.
巴勒斯坦人处弱势，而且四分五裂。

Israel, in comparison with its turbulent Arab neighbours, is prosperous, stable and—in the short run, anyway—secure.
以色列，与其动乱不息的阿拉伯邻居相比，则显得繁荣稳定，而且，至少是在短期，安全。

So why should Mr Netanyahu bother to give in to those tiresome Palestinians—and risk being tossed out of office by an angry alliance driven by the West Bank settlers?
所以，为什么内塔尼亚胡得向那些烦人的巴勒斯坦人让步？约旦河西岸定居者推波助澜之下，自己则有被怒气冲冲的盟友们赶下台的风险。

The answer is that doing anything else is merely playing for time.
答案就是，做其他任何事都只是拖延时间。

The moment to strike a deal is when you possess most of the cards.
促成协议的最佳时机是你手上牌最多的时候。

Mr Sharon understood that. He forced his way down a path towards peace, even if it meant losing old comrades and picking up new ones on the way.
沙龙就懂这一点。他强势推进通往和平的道路，即使这意味着这失去同志的支持，以及要在途中争取新同志。

If Mr Netanyahu wants to be mourned in the same way, he should dwell on that.
如果内塔尼亚胡想被以同样的方式铭记，他就应该以此为鉴。