经济学人下载:德国法院和欧洲央行 尘埃未定

Finance and economics
财经商业

The German courts and the ECB
德国法院和欧洲央行

It isn't over
尘埃未定

European monetary policy has not been given the reprieve markets believe
市场相信:欧洲货币政策还未被宣布死缓

AS A working rule, the shorter a statement the more it says.
作为一项工作法则，言论越是短小精悍，越是意味无穷。

A commitment made by the European Central Bank in September 2012 runs to fewer than 500 words, but it was enough to send the bond vigilantes packing.
欧洲央行在2012年九月的一项承诺短短不过500字，却足以让那些债券治安员卷铺盖走人。

The ECB promised to make unlimited purchases of the sovereign debt of governments on the ropes.
欧洲央行承诺无限制购买那些陷于困境的政府的主权债务。

These Outright Monetary Transactions, whose dreary name disguises their punch, proved so potent a deterrent that they never had to be deployed.
这些直接货币交易的名字沉闷无趣，却隐藏着强大的冲击力。事实证明，OMT威慑力大到实质上从不需要被调配。

But if quiescent markets were to turn nasty again, requiring OMT to be fired, would the central bank be acting within its powers?
但如果目前晴空万里的市场又要风波再起，以至于要发射OMT这枚炮弹，欧洲央行还能够安于自司其职吗？

For more than a year the German constitutional court in Karlsruhe has been contemplating this question.
一年多以来，在卡尔斯鲁厄的德国宪法法院都对此问题苦思冥想。

Even though the place to decide whether a European body is abiding by European law is in Luxembourg at the European Court of Justice, the court in Karlsruhe insists on its right to examine whether the acts of a European institution are infringing the German constitution.
虽然只有位于卢森堡的欧洲法院才能决定欧体是否遵循欧洲法律，位于卡尔斯鲁厄的德国法院仍坚持要审查欧洲央行的行为是否侵犯了德国的宪法。

The judges finally issued a ruling on February 7th.
法官们最终在二月七日作出裁决。

The judgment of the majority was far harsher than the yes, but verdict that had originally been expected.
除去八位中的两位以此案不应被受理为由而有所反对外，多数裁决的结果可比人们原来预想中行倒是行，不过…的判决书严厉多了。

Instead the court found that the central bank had overstepped its mandate and that OMT was a backdoor to monetary financing of governments, outlawed under European treaties.
法院认为欧洲央行已经越位行职，OMT实际成为政府货币融资的后门，而后者已被被欧盟条约取缔。

But the markets heaved a collective sigh of relief as they noted that in an uNPRecedented move the court had referred crucial points in the case to the ECJ.
不过，在得知德国法院史无前例的将此案中的关键点移交给了欧洲法院后，各大市场都松了口气。

Since the European court is thought of as a champion of European integration, OMT should be safe in its hands.
由于欧洲法庭被公认为欧洲一体化的拥护者，在那里OMT应该会相当安全。

But referring points in the case to the ECJ does not mean deferring to it.
但是把案子要点交给欧洲法院并不代表让它最后拍板。

The view that the constitutional court has thrown in the towel is incorrect, says Bruno de Witte, a professor of European Union law at Maastricht University; rather the German judges have given their interpretation and are asking the ECJ for its views.
宪法法院并没有自认失败，马斯特里赫特大学的布鲁诺·德维特如是说，这不过是德国的法官们在给出自己的解读之后寻求欧洲法院的观点而已。

They will take these into account when passing their final judgment, based as before on whether OMT infringes Germany's basic law.
他们会在达成最后判决之前把这些观点加以考量，而判决仍旧同之前一样会基于OMT是否违反了德国的基本法。

If the European court simply upholds the ECB's defence of bond buying, which is that it lies squarely within the central bank's monetary-policy mandate, then that could set the stage for a clash of the courts.
如果欧洲法院简单粗暴的支持欧洲央行购买债券的辩解，声称这完全在央行的货币政策职责范围内，那么这就为法院之间的冲突拉开了帷幕。

Given how harsh its ruling has been, the German court might insist that, notwithstanding a favourable judgment from the ECJ, OMT is incompatible with the constitution.
德国法院一向作风凌厉，即使欧洲央行做出对OMT有利的判决，它也许会坚称OMT与宪法互不相容。

Though it could not prevail upon the central bank to revise OMT, the court could try to prevent the German Bundesbank from participating in it.
虽然德国法院不能够凌驾于欧洲央行之上来修改OMT，法院依然能够阻止德国央行参与其中。

Can such a battle between Karlsruhe and Luxembourg be avoided?
这场卡尔斯鲁厄和卢森堡之间的冲突能够被避免吗？

In effect the German court sets out its terms for a compromise.
实际上德国法庭已经在法律条款上做出了让步，

In the event of a restructuring, it does not want the ECB to be on an equal footing with private creditors, accepting losses like them on debt acquired through OMT.
在重组方面，它并不想让欧洲央行像私人债权人一样通过从OMT取得债款的方式接受损失。

The court also says that the policy should, where possible, avoid interfering with price formation which may refer to setting targets for bond yields.
法庭同时声称政策在可能的情况下都不应该干涉价格形成。

These demands could probably be met without defanging OMT.
这些要求都能够在不削弱OMT的情况下被满足。

The third stipulation—that purchases should not be unlimited—might castrate it.
第三个规定—不能无限制购买—可能使得OMT力量全失。

Yet even on this point there may be room for compromise by recognising that OMT does have effective limits since it would only target bonds between one and three years from maturity.
不过即使是在这一点上仍旧有回旋余地，因为OMT专门购买在一到三年之间到期的债券，因此实际上是有有效限制的。

At this level of judicial jousting, realpolitik rather than the strict letter of the law prevails.
这种水平的司法角逐之下，现实政治绝对胜过法律条文。

Though it might be tempting for the ECJ to slap down the constitutional court, Germany underpins the euro and the single currency is central to the integrationist project.
虽然欧洲法庭可能想借机打击宪法法院，德国却是支撑欧元的重要力量，而单一货币是欧洲一体化的核心。

A face-saving fudge seems the most likely outcome; the ECJ after all sits in the city that gave its name to a paragon of the genre, the Luxembourg compromise on EU members' voting rights.
一通顾全面子的谎话或许是最有可能的结果。毕竟欧洲法院位于卢森堡， 针对欧盟成员国投票权签署的卢森堡协议，正是以这个城市命名的典型。

The ECB's formal commitment of September 2012 may have been short, but it was a good deal longer than the impromptu vow made by Mario Draghi six weeks earlier to do whatever it takes to save the euro, which turned out to be OMT.
欧洲央行 在2012年九月的承诺虽然简短，但是比起马里奥德拉基在六周前即兴发表的竭尽所能救欧元的誓言可长多了，而那个誓言最后演变成了OMT。

In fact the ECB boss added a crucial and usually omitted rider to his pithy pledge: within our mandate.
实际上央行老大在他简短誓词中加了一个常常被忽略的关键词语：在我们的职责范围之内。

That qualification is now being spelt out by the judges.
这个条件现在被法官们重点强调。

When they have resolved the matter to their satisfaction it seems unlikely that OMT will be quite so mighty a weapon as it appeared to be when it was first unveiled.
在他们圆满解决这个事情之后，OMT就不太可能像它初次露面时显得那样强大了。