经济学人下载:中国货币 只有一条路可走

Finance and economics
财经商业

China's currency
中国货币

One way no more
只有一条路可走

Why China's central bank is weakening its currency
为什么中国的中央银行正在弱化它的货币

CHINA'S currency has long been a source of controversy, especially among American politicians outraged by its cheapness.
中国的货币长久以来就是争议之源，尤其是因其廉价而饱受美国政客的指责。

But it is rarely a source of uncertainty.
但是它却不是不稳定的源泉。

Critics have argued fiercely about what it should be worth.
批评家就其实际价值争论了很久，

But as to what it would be worth, China's authorities have left little room for disagreement.
但是事关未来中国货币价值，中国政府不容置喙。在中国历史上的大多数时间，其货币紧紧与美元挂钩。

For much of its history it has been pegged tightly to the dollar. More recently it has floated within a narrow band.
近来，中国汇率在一个很小的范围波动。

Most people have assumed it would float upwards.
大多数人，认为其将会向上浮动。

In recent days, however, China's authorities have tested that assumption.
而近日，中国官方欣慰证实了这一猜想，

At a two-day meeting ending on February 18th, the central bank decided to weaken the yuan, according to the Wall Street Journal.
据《华尔街日报》消息，为期两天并于2月18号结束的会议，在其召开之后，

It has lowered its benchmark by a smidgen at a time for several days.
中央银行决定贬抑人民币。它略微降低了其基准几天的时间。

The currency has also fallen from the strong side of its band to the weak side.
货币也已经从强势的一端，降到弱势的一端了。

In the space of a few days, it lost about 1% of its value.
几天的时间，就已经贬值了1%。

On February 26th China's foreign-exchange regulator said that China's ongoing exchange-rate reforms meant that two-way fluctuations… will become the norm.
2月26日，中国外汇管理局称中国正在进行汇率改革，这意味着双向波动会成为规范

For the past year, a different norm has applied:
在过去的几年，一个不同的标准已被采用：

the fluctuations have been mostly one way.
波动可能只因为一种方式。

China enjoys a sizeable current-account surplus and it still attracts more foreign-direct investment than it provides.
中国拥有相当数量的经常项目盈余，并且它仍然吸引这比其投资量更多的国外直接投资。

Other kinds of capital flows are more volatile. But in the last quarter of 2013, a net $22 billion of hot money flowed inwards.
其他形式的资本流动愈发不稳定。当时2013年第四季度，净值220亿美元的热钱流入国内。

Much of this qualifies as a carry trade: speculators have borrowed cheaply in dollars, then lent in yuan, eluding China's capital controls in the hope of benefiting both from higher Chinese interest rates and the yuan's appreciation.
许多被认为是一种套息交易:投机者廉价借入美元,然后借给人民币,避过了中国的资本管制,以期从更高的中国利率和人民币升值中获利。

All of this has put upward pressure on the currency, fulfilling the carry-traders' designs and inspiring others to emulate them.
套息交易者计划的实行以及激励别人效仿其行为，所有的这些都增加了货币升值的压力，

Despite the central bank's heavy purchases of foreign exchange, the yuan rose by 2.8% against the dollar in the year to January, even as the currencies of other emerging markets plummeted.
尽管央行大量购进美元，截至今年1月，即使是在其他新兴市场猛跌的情况下，人民币相对于美元升值了2.8%。

The resulting loss of competitiveness is best illustrated by an index calculated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which compares China's currency with those of other emerging economies that compete with it in third markets.
由香港金融管理局的通过比较中国与其他新兴经济体的货币在第三市场的竞争计算出来的指数，最好地说明了人民币升值导致竞争力下降的情况。

This index shows the yuan rising by over 13% in the year to January and by almost 2.6% in January alone.
这个指数显示了人民币截至到今年一月份上涨了13%，光一月份就上涨了几乎2.6%。

China's authorities did not say they had stepped in to sap the yuan.
中国政府未曾说过其介入贬抑人民币。

But their intervention left fingerprints all over the money markets.
但是它们干涉的痕迹遍布整个货币市场。

In buying dollars to weaken the currency, the monetary authorities put additional yuan into circulation.
通过购买美元来使本币贬值，金融当局投放额外的人民币用于流通。

The central bank withdrew a fraction of this extra money by selling securities to the banks.
中央银行通过向银行发售有价证券来收回一小部分额外的钱。

But the banks were still left with extra yuan, which they tried to lend to each other.
但是银行手头仍然有很多多出来的钱，他们试图将之借给对方，

This pushed down interbank interest rates, despite the central bank's withdrawals.
这降低了银行内部利率。

As Yao Wei of Societe Generale points out, No factors other than foreign-exchange intervention seems able to explain that.
法国兴业银行的Yao Wei 指出似乎除了外汇干预，没有更好的原因能解释这一现象了。

Will the yuan's slide persist?
人民币会持续贬值吗？

In its statement, the foreign-exchange regulator pointed out that export earnings and foreign-direct investment remain strong.
外汇管理局在其陈述中指出：对外贸易顺差以及国外直接投资势头依旧强劲。

These fundamentals both suggest the yuan should rise again.
这两个基础因素显示了人民币应该再次升值。

But by wrongfooting the speculators, the authorities hope that the expectation of appreciation will not remain a cause of that appreciation.
但是通过打乱投机者的步伐，当局期望对升值的预期不会继续成为导致升值的因素。

At the meeting in which it decided to cheapen its currency, the central bank also decided to enlarge the yuan's trading band later this year, according to a statement cited by theJournal.
根据《华尔街日报》上的描述，在做出贬抑人民币决定的会议上，中央银行也决定扩大人民币交易的范围。

A more flexible yuan would give the central bank a freer hand in setting monetary policy, even as it gradually permits larger cross-border flows of capital.
一个更加有弹性的人民币将会给中央银行在制定货币政策时带来更大的便利，甚至它会逐渐允许更大规模的跨境资本流动。

Despite its cruelty to carry traders, the central bank seems to be keen to open the door to foreign capital a little wider, as long as foreigners do not try to barge their way in. That will make China's currency a source of less controversy but a good deal more uncertainty.
尽管其对于套息交易者十分严厉，但是只要外国人不试图用粗鲁的方式闯入中国市场，中央银行似乎乐意对国外资本适度放宽限制。这将减少中国通货的争议性，但是却增加了不稳定性。