经济学人下载:经济战场 天然气和巧克力

The economic battleground
经济战场

Gas and chocolate
天然气和巧克力

Supporting Ukraine's economy will not be easy or cheap
支持乌克兰的经济怕是既不容易也不廉价

THE Ukrainian economy is a mess.
乌克兰的经济现在是一片混乱。

Its currency, the hryvnia, has lost almost 20% of its value in the past month.
过去的一个月，其货币格里夫纳已经贬值将近20%。

Foreign-exchange reserves have tumbled to $15 billion, despite the imposition of capital controls.
尽管实行资本管制, 外汇储备还是已跌至150亿美元。

Bank deposits fell by more than 3% in the first half of February and, since the revolution, the government has imposed limits on further withdrawals.
二月上旬，银行存款下跌超过3%，自革命以来, 政府进一步限制提款。

Tax revenues have collapsed and pension payments have been delayed.
税收收入已经崩溃, 养老金也被推迟。

The country was in poor-enough economic shape before all this: it was one of the reasons why Viktor Yanukovych, the deposed president, chose $15 billion in Russian loans over a deal with the European Union—the decision that led to his downfall.
此前，乌克兰的经济就已经很是贫困:这也是被废黜的总统亚努科维奇选择了俄罗斯150亿美元的贷款而不是与欧洲联盟的原因之一，此决定导致了他的垮台。

Having propped up the Ukrainian economy, Russia seems to have the power, as energy provider, trading partner and creditor, to cripple it.
作为乌克兰的能源供应商, 贸易伙伴和债权人，俄罗斯支持过乌克兰的经济, 俄罗斯似乎也有能力削弱它。

The most obvious economic attack would be to cut off the Ukraine's gas.
最明显的经济攻击将是切断乌克兰的天然气。

That need not have huge effects either on western customers whose gas comes via Ukraine or on Russian gas earnings.
这需要不会对天然气运输途经乌克兰的西方客户或俄罗斯天然气收入产生较大影响。

Other Russian pipelines could handle much of the gas.
其他俄罗斯管道可以处理大部分的天然气。

But it would still be a costly tactic, and one to which the Ukrainians are not as vulnerable as they might seem.
但这仍将是一个昂贵的策略, 乌克兰人也没有他们看起来那么脆弱。

They have large gas-storage facilities conveniently situated in the west of the country. How much gas the stores contain is unclear, and its ownership is murky—but after a mild winter there is probably a buffer of several months.
该国西部地区，他们有大型油气储备设施。天然气存储到底有多少还不清楚, 其所有权也很模糊，冬季之后能支撑几个月来缓冲。

Moreover, Ukraine should be able to import gas from Slovakia, reversing the flow of a main east-west pipeline.
此外, 乌克兰还能从斯洛伐克进口天然气,扭转一条重要的东西方管道的流动。

It has twice done this on smaller pipelines during previous disputes with Russia.
之前与俄罗斯发生过纠纷，他们两次就修建好了一些较小的管道。

Trade is also a weapon which imposes costs on the aggressor, but an easier one to wield with precision.
贸易也是一种武器, 把成本强加于侵略者,更容易而且精确行使。

A quarter of Ukraine's exports head east and Vladimir Putin is not shy about messing with them; Russian restrictions, like those placed on Ukrainian chocolate last year, could cost the country billions, with the losses targeted on particular sectors, even particular oligarchs.
乌克兰四分之一的出口是往东方出口，弗拉基米尔普京并不羞于干扰;俄罗斯对其进行限制,去年曾搁置乌克兰出口的巧克力造成了上十亿的损失,损失针对特定的行业,甚至特定的寡头。

This week Russia banned pork from Ukraine, saying political instability had undermined safety inspections.
本周俄罗斯禁止从乌克兰进口猪肉，声称乌克兰的政治不稳定已经破坏了安全检查。

Though Mr Putin says he wants to strengthen trade, instability is unlikely to be in short supply over the coming months.
尽管普京先生表示, 他希望加强贸易，在未来的几个月不太可能出现供应不足。

As a creditor, Russia has given itself room for mischievous manoeuvre.
作为债权人,俄罗斯已经给自己恶意操纵的空间。

The way its bail-out to Mr Yanukovych, $3 billion of which was delivered before the revolution, was structured gives Mr Putin leverage that could scupper any attempts to reach agreements with other creditors in advance of forthcoming payments.
其对亚努科维奇的纾困,革命之前, 就已给了30亿美元，普京目的是破坏乌克兰与其他债权人事先达成协议。

And some fine print stipulates that if Ukraine's debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60% it would automatically be in default.
一些细则规定, 如果乌克兰的债务占国民生产总值的比率超过60%, 俄罗斯可以不履行协议。

Russia's legal poison pills could make dealing with Ukraine's debts harder at a time when they are sure to grow; without loans from the West the government will run out of money.
俄罗斯的法律毒丸可以让让乌克兰因此债务交易更加困难; 但没有从西方政府贷款，钱还是会用光。

If Ukraine had sensible economic policies such loans would be easily made, since the country's current debt burden, at 47% of GDP, is not excessive.
如果乌克兰有明智的经济政策, 这种贷款会很容易, 因为这个国家目前的债务负担占GDP的47%, 并不过多。

But Ukraine has almost never had sensible policies; it has profligate ones, and the investors who used to support that profligacy when Ukraine offered high interest rates and a stable currency are now nowhere to be seen.
但乌克兰几乎从来没有明智的政策, 挥霍无度，曾经支持 挥霍的投资者们所支持乌克兰的高利率和稳定的货币政策现在也不可行了。

Time for the IMF, which has ample experience with this kind of balance-of-payments crisis.
国际货币基金组织行动的时候了,它有足够的经验处理这种国际收支平衡危机。

The standard remedy includes tough reforms—in Ukraine's case, a large depreciation, slashed energy subsidies and big budget cuts—in return for funds to tide the country over until it can once again borrow from private markets.
规范的补救措施包括艰难的改革，对于乌克兰的这种情况, 需要一次货币大贬值, 削减能源补贴和大幅削减财政预算来换取资金,直到这个国家渡过难关, 直到能再一次实行私人市场。

Ukraine probably needs $3 billion to $4 billion in budgetary finance to last until after the May election.
乌克兰可能需要30亿美元到40亿美元财政预算将持续到5月大选之后。

A larger loan of $15 billion would allow it to meet its external financial obligations for the next year.
150亿美元更大的贷款, 将可能会让其完成外部金融义务。

America is keen for the IMF to negotiate a big package of loans and reforms as soon as possible, arguing that Ukraine's transitional government not only needs the support, but also can make progress where others have failed.
美国希望国际货币基金组织协商尽快提供大的贷款和改革方案, 认为乌克兰的过渡政府不仅需要支持, 也可以在别人失败的地方取得进展。

Alexander Turchinov, the interim president, has already said he would accept all the IMF's terms, including draconian spending cuts.
Alexander Turchinov临时总统已经表示, 他将接受所有国际货币基金组织的条件, 包括严厉的削减开支。

But many of the IMF's technocrats, and its member countries, dislike the idea of America using the fund as a geopolitical tool—worries given a bitter edge by the fact that America's Congress recently refused to approve an expansion of the fund's coffers.
但国际货币基金组织的许多技术专家, 和它的成员国,不喜欢美国的想法，把基金作为地缘政治工具-担心最近美国国会拒绝批准扩大基金的资金是给定了一个痛苦的边缘。

They would prefer that the IMF chip in $1 billion, with few strings attached, under its Rapid Financing Instrument.
货币基金采取快速的融资，给其10亿美元 并附加一些条件。

Other short-term help is available.
他们更希望国际其他短期帮助也可以。

On March 5th the EU offered 1.6 billion in short-term macroeconomic assistance, as well as a lot of development aid in the longer term.
3月5日欧盟提供16亿作为短期宏观经济援助, 以及大量的长期发展援助。

Add in the $1 billion loan guarantee announced by John Kerry this week and Ukraine can probably stumble along until May, at which point a newly elected government could negotiate a long-term package.
约翰克里在本周宣布了10亿美元贷款担保，到5月乌克兰可能会踉跄前行 , 那时新当选的政府可以协商一个长期计划。

The politics of the rescue may get harder when it becomes clear where some of the money will end up.
我们很清楚，随着钱的用完，救援举措也会变得困难。

Using Western taxpayer's money to pay off Mr Putin or the hedge funds that bought high-yielding Ukrainian debt is an ugly prospect.
用西方纳税人的钱来偿还普京或者高收益债券的对冲基金是一个丑陋的前景。

So Ukraine may try to renegotiate terms with its bondholders, which would be where Mr Putin's leverage could come into play.
所以乌克兰可能尝试与债券持有人重新谈判合同条款, 普京也会利用杠杆作用做文章。

But it would also be where a reform plan with solid Western support would yield dividends.
这也将是一个西方支持的改革计划，会产生红利。

If Ukraine's economy is being transformed and the IMF is satisfied, Russian bloody-mindedness need not slow the country's return to the market, even if it forces a form of default.
如果乌克兰的经济转变了, 国际货币基金组织对其满意, 需要俄罗斯不找茬阻碍乌克兰重返市场, 即便是它迫使违约。

But if Ukraine's reform commitment wobbles, Russia has room to cause yet more trouble.
但如果乌克兰改革承诺一旦晃动, 俄罗斯会有机会制造更多的麻烦。