经济学人下载:巴基斯坦的移动通信业

Mobile telecoms in Pakistan
巴基斯坦的移动通信业

At last, 3G
终于等到你，3G

The government raises a bit of money and gets a long-awaited industry started
政府筹集到了一定资金，启动了长期停滞的产业

Now we can really start shopping
现在我们可以真正意义上开始购物

IN PAKISTAN, as in other poor parts of the world, mobile telecoms are vital to the country's development, bypassing obstructive bureaucrats and bringing services directly to the masses—from banking to voter registration. Yet it is the only country in South Asia that does not have high-speed mobile internet, because only this week, after eight years of delays and regulatory snarl-ups, did it at last hold an auction of the spectrum required to roll out 3G and 4G services.
移动通信的发展对于巴基斯坦以及世界上其他的贫困地区的发展至关重要，避开官僚作风的阻碍，将直接服务于大众—从银行业到选民登记。同时，他也是南亚唯一没有高速移动网络的国家。因为在持续8年的推延以及官僚阻滞的影响下，直到这个星期，巴基斯坦才举行开展3G和4G业务所需频谱的招标。

Demand for the licences fell short of the government's hopes. The finance minister, Ishaq Dar, had talked of the auction raising $2 billion; in the end it produced just under $1.2 billion. Successful bids were made by two local operators, Mobilink and Ufone, and two foreign ones, China Mobile and Telenor of Norway. Two other big foreign firms that had been expected to take part, Saudi Telecom and Turkcell of Turkey, got cold feet after, it is said, having their request for exclusive one-year licences rejected.
运营权的需求度低于政府的预期。金融部长Ishaq Dar曾经提及招标计划是20亿美金，但是最后只产生了12亿不到。成功中标的包括Mobilink 以及Ufone 这两家本土公司以及China Mobile 和 Telenor of Norway这两家国外公司。其他两个国外大集团Saudi Telecom 和 Turkcell of Turkey曾有望参与其中，但是却临阵退缩了。据说是因为拒绝了他们一年独家经营权的要求。

The year Pakistan's government first talked about auctioning 3G spectrum, 2006, was the year Sri Lanka actually started its services. India held its auction in 2010. Even now, in both these countries only a modest proportion of the population enjoys access to high-speed mobile broadband—but they are far ahead of Pakistan and Bangladesh (see chart).
在斯里兰卡实际开启其3G业务的2006年，巴基斯坦政府第一次提及3G频谱的拍卖。印度在2010年招标。即使是现在，这两个国家只有一部分人喜欢连接高速移动宽带——但是这比例也远比巴基斯坦和孟加拉要高。

In 2003 Pakistan's then military dictator, Pervez Musharraf, deregulated mobile telecoms to attract foreign investment. But the civilian administration that succeeded him in 2008 spent years lurching from one crisis to another, and failed to promote the industry. A new government, in power since last June, has faced down protests from opposition politicians and, at last, held the auction.
2003年，巴基斯坦当时的军事独裁者Pervez Musharraf解除对于移动通信业的管制来吸引外商投资。但是2008年接任的平民政府在不断发生的危机中步履蹒跚，发展该产业也失败了。去年六月上台的新政府面对反对派的抗议，最终举行了招标。

It could have copied war-torn Afghanistan, which has done without an auction, and simply sold licences at low prices, starting in 2012. It did so on the grounds that the economic boost from introducing 3G should be bigger than the one-off windfall from an auction that might have got mired in corruption allegations.
它本可以模仿饱受战乱的阿富汗，自2012年开始，不进行招标，单纯地以低价出售经营权。阿富汗这样做，因为引入3G带来的经济发展的利益比一次性拍卖来得高，后者还可能会陷入腐败的指控中去。

Pakistan's new government, however, needed cash to replenish its foreign reserves. It has not got as much as it wanted, but a less competitive auction may give the successful operators more of a chance to build a profitable business. They have long been plagued by fickle government policies and tight margins in a market that has some of the lowest average revenues per user in the world, at around $2 a month.
但是巴基斯坦的新政府需要现金来重新扩大它的外汇储备。它没有获得其预期的那么多，但是竞争不太激烈的招标或许能给中标方更多的机会来建立一个盈利的项目。他们长期困扰于多变的政策以及市场利润空间不足的情况，因为一些用户处于世界上最低收入水平，每月收入在2美元左右。

With a crippling energy crisis that leaves its cities powerless for up to 12 hours a day and the villages for longer, and an Islamist insurgency that has paralysed businesses and deterred all but the bravest foreign investors, the country of nearly 200m people sorely needs the boost that high-speed mobile-internet access should bring. A recent study by a British consulting firm, commissioned by the Pakistani government, predicted that by increasing economic activity it could help create up to 900,000 jobs over the next four years, and bring in hundreds of millions of dollars a year of new tax revenues.
伴随着严重的能源危机，巴基斯坦的城市一天有12个小时断电，乡村更久。并且伊斯兰叛乱活动使得商业瘫痪，除了那些最勇敢的外国投资者，没有其他人敢来。有将近2亿人的国家十分需要高速移动网络连接带来的发展。最近一项受巴基斯坦政府委任由英国顾问集团进行的研究，其预计通过增加经济活动，发展高速网络能在接下来的思念时间帮助创造90万的岗位，并带来每年亿万美元的税收收入。

Nevertheless, as elsewhere in South Asia, the spread of the mobile internet is likely to be slow, since it depends on people replacing their basic handsets with smartphones, which remain unaffordable for most Pakistanis. So far less than 10% of the country's 132m mobile subscribers have smartphones, according to industry figures. However, Pakistan's mobile operators are playing a long game. Even the local ones have deep-pocketed foreign backers that are prepared to wait for growth to pick up and dividends to flow.
然而，就像南亚其他地方一样，手机网络的推广过程是缓慢的，因为它需要人们将他们的功能机置换成智能机，这对于大多数巴基斯坦人来说是难以负担的。产业数据显示，目前，该国1.32亿手机用户中不到10%拥有智能机。但是，巴基斯坦的移动运营商着眼于未来。即使本地运营商也有着有钱的国外赞助人，他们准备等待着发展腾飞、利益的扩张。