经济学人下载:德意志银行 胃口不小

Deutsche Bank
德意志银行

Hollow legs
胃口不小

Europe's biggest bank pours money into investment banking
欧洲最大的银行向其投行业务注资

WHEN Deutsche Bank tapped shareholders for 3 billion last year, it hailed the end of a “hunger march” for capital. In fact, it had only whetted its appetite. On May 18th it announced a plan to raise a further 8 billion. In addition to placating regulators who are demanding ever-more-solid balance-sheets, Deutsche needs the extra nourishment to keep up with its investment-banking rivals on Wall Street, a competition most of its European counterparts have abandoned.
去年德意志银行向股东要求注资30亿欧元，这标志着资本“饥饿游行”的结束。事实上，这仅仅是开胃菜。在5月18日，德意志银行宣布计划募资80亿欧元。此次筹资一方面是为了安抚对资产负债表有着更加严苛要求的监管机构欧洲央行，另一方面是为了赶上华尔街的那些投行对手而补充额外的营养，尽管一些欧洲同行已经放弃了同他们的竞争。

Deutsche has long lacked the buffers of some of its rivals. The extra cash, part of which will come from Qatar's royal family, will put paid to questions about its resilience—at least for a bit. A finding that it fiddled currency markets, or a further fine for its part in fixing LIBOR, a benchmark interest rate, could cost it 3 billion. A restructuring will eat up a further 2 billion. And changes in how its trading book is valued will rob it of 2 billion when calculating regulatory ratios. Add that up and its core Tier 1 ratio, a measure of the losses it can safely endure, may slip from 11.8% after the capital-raising back towards the current 9.5%. Using the leverage ratio, of equity to assets, it is still lagging its rivals, particularly American ones such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase.
从上图可知，长期以来德意志银行都缺乏像部分竞争对手所拥有的缓冲资金。部分额外资金是来自于卡塔尔的皇室家族，这能解决资金弹性的问题——至少能解决一部分。另一则发现是德意志银行因涉嫌扰乱货币市场，或者因涉嫌操控LIBOR而被处以30亿欧元的罚款。一项资产重组会再吞掉20亿欧元。在计算监管比率的时候，交易账户评估方式的改变将会使德意志再次损失20亿欧元。将这些因素汇总，德意志银行的一级资本充足率将从筹资之后的11.8%下降到现在的9.5%。从权益资本杠杆比率的角度来看，德意志银行仍然落后于他的竞争对手们，尤其是美国的对手比如高盛和摩根大通。

Doubling down on investment banking seems to have been the only strategy available to Deutsche: the division accounts for the lion's share of its profits. Its co-chief executive, Anshu Jain, an habitué of trading floors, was never likely to retreat from the business the way most big European banks have. Two weeks ago, Barclays, which for decades mimicked Deutsche's drive to bulk up in investment banking, announced it would instead start cutting back. UBS and Credit Suisse, two Swiss rivals, have already shrunk their investment-banking arms.
增加对投资银行业务的投入看起来是德意志银行唯一可行的出路：因为这是他所有业务中盈利能力最强的部门。德意志银行的联合首席执行官Anshu Jain表示，就像一位交易大厅中的常客不会放弃这项事业一样，德意志银行也不会像其他欧洲其他大银行一样削减投行业务。两周以前，巴克莱银行宣布缩减投行业务。而在此之前的几十年里，巴克莱银行一直效仿德意志银行扩展投行业务。两个瑞士的对手瑞士银行和瑞士信贷，也已经缩减其投行部门。

The gambit is not a one-way bet. The juiciest bits of investment banking—the trading of bonds, currencies and commodities together known as “FICC”—have been in the decline in recent years. If that is merely a cyclical downturn in response to ultra-low interest rates, as some posit, Deutsche's investment should pay off handsomely when the good times roll again. But others see an irreversible slump prompted by post-crisis regulations.
这一招不是一个单向的赌博。投行业务中最大的一块内容—债券交易，货币和商品，统称为“固定收益”—在近年来已经呈现下降趋势。如果正如一些分析所说这只是针对超低利率的周期性衰退，那么当牛市回归，德意志银行的投资会得到丰厚的回报。但是其他人却认为这是金融危机后的监管带来的不可逆转的衰退。

There are other risks, too. Though Deutsche may be the last man standing in Europe, plenty of American banks are active in London and Frankfurt. It will soon come under the regulatory purview of the European Central Bank, which is likely to be more exacting than BaFin, the German overseer. If Mr Jain is held responsible for the various market scandals facing Deutsche, his departure could prompt a shift in strategy.
当然还有其他的风险。尽管德意志银行有可能成为欧洲唯一一个从事投行业务的银行，大量的美国银行仍旧在伦敦和法兰克福表现活跃。并且德意志银行很快就要面临来自监管机构欧洲央行的压力测试，而欧洲央行很有可能比德国金融监管机构BaFin更加严格。如果德意志银行和其他银行一样，是由联合首席执行官Jain先生来承担德意志银行所面临的各种市场丑闻，那么他的离开可能会引起战略调整。

Unlike credit cards at Barclays and wealth-management at UBS, Deutsche does not have other strongly profitable units that could make up for FICC's retreat. That is one reason why its decision to raise cash took nobody by surprise. It has waited a long time to admit the inevitable: its share price has fallen by a quarter over the past four months. Shareholders' own hunger march, in other words, goes on.
不同于巴克莱银行的信用卡业务和瑞士银行的财富管理业务，德意志银行并没有其他强势的盈利项目能够补充固定收益的下降。这也是为什么大家对德意志银行决定筹资并不觉得意外的原因之一。筹资措施是经过很长时间的考虑之后才被认为是唯一的方法：在过去的四个月里，德意志银行的股价已经下跌了四分之一。换句话说，属于股东们自己的“饥饿游行”还在继续。