经济学人下载:能源补贴 废除

Energy subsidies
能源补贴

Scrap them
废除

There are moves around the world to get rid of energy subsidies. Here's the best way of going about it
世界上有各种废除能源补贴的措施，下文是最佳方案。

FOR decades, governments from Egypt to Indonesia have subsidised the price of basic fuels. Such programmes often start with noble intentions—to keep down the cost of living for the poor or, in the case of oil-producing countries, to provide a visible example of the benefits of carbon wealth—but they have disastrous consequences, wrecking budgets, distorting economies, harming the environment and, on balance, hurting rather than helping the poor.
几十年来，从埃及到印尼，政府都对基本燃料给予价格补贴。这些补贴常常打着高尚的旗号：降低穷人的生活成本,在石油生产国家树立碳财富收益的榜样。这往往会产生破坏性的后果，打乱预算，扭曲经济，破坏环境。总体来说，它们对穷人的伤害比帮助大。

Emerging markets are not the only places that distort energy markets. America, for instance, suppresses prices by restricting exports. But subsidies are more significant in poorer countries. Of the $500 billion a year the IMF reckons they cost—the equivalent of four times all official foreign aid—half is spent by governments in the Middle East and north Africa, where, on average, it is worth about 20% of government revenues. The proceeds flow overwhelmingly to the car-driving urban elite. In the typical emerging economy the richest fifth of households hoover up 40% of the benefits of fuel subsidies; the poorest fifth get only 7%. But the poorest suffer disproportionately from the distortions that such intervention creates. Egypt spends seven times more on fuel subsidies than on health. Cheap fuel encourages the development of heavy industry rather than the job-rich light manufacturing that offers far more people a route out of poverty.
不只有新兴市场的能源市场受到扭曲。在美国，政府限制能源出口来抑制价格上涨。但补贴对较贫穷的国家影响更大。在国际货币基金组织声称的对这些国家年5000亿美元的支出中，有一半都是被中东和北美的国家政府消费掉的。这一支出相当于所有官方外援的四倍。在这些政府，补贴占收入的20%。补贴大量流入城区内的有车精英一族。在典型的新兴经济体内，40%的燃料补贴流向了最富有的家庭而最贫穷的家庭只拿到7%。最贫穷的家庭承受着政府补贴带来的不公。埃及花在能源补贴上的资金是花在医疗保健上的7倍有余。廉价燃料可以促进重工业的发展，而非轻工业。后者能为更多人创造就业机会，提供脱贫机会。

For all these reasons the benefits of scrapping subsidies are immense. Emerging economies could easily compensate every poor person with a handout that was bigger than the benefits they got from cheap fuel and still save money. In the process, they would help the planet. According to the International Energy Agency, eliminating fossil-fuel subsidies would reduce global carbon emissions by 6% by 2020.
基于上述理由，废除补贴带来的好处是巨大的。新兴经济体很容易就能补偿每个穷人，其收益远大于廉价燃料，同时还能有余钱储蓄。在此过程中，它们还保护了地球。根据国际能源署，通过减少化石燃料补贴，到2020年，碳排放能降低6%。

How to save $500 billion and the planet
怎么省下5000亿美元又能拯救地球？

Some emerging-market governments are persuaded by these arguments, and are getting serious about reform (see article). Indonesia raised petrol prices by more than 40% last year, and the front-runner in the upcoming presidential election says he will consider a more comprehensive fuel-subsidy revamp. Iran has just begun the second phase of a big subsidy overhaul, raising the price of petrol, gas and electricity. Egypt's new president is being pushed towards tackling energy subsidies by a gaping budget deficit. Morocco and Jordan have cut subsidies in the past couple of years. Even Kuwait announced this week that it plans to scrap diesel subsidies.
一些新兴市场的政府被这些辩论说服，于是开始严肃对待改革（另见文）。印尼汽油去年提价超过了40%，在接下来的总统大选中，选票领跑者表示他将考虑一个更加复杂的燃油补贴改进。伊朗刚刚开始了第二轮的补贴改进并提高了石油、汽油和电力价格。埃及新总统不得不面临日益扩大的预算赤字引起的能源补贴问题。摩洛哥和约旦在过去几年都削减了补贴。甚至科威特也在这周宣布计划停止柴油机补贴。

Yet the politics of reform are exceedingly difficult. Politicians are loth to antagonise the urban elite; insiders benefit (often corruptly) from cheap fuel; ordinary citizens do not believe they will be compensated. Many previous attempts to cut subsidies have been abandoned in the face of popular protests or rising global oil prices. Experience suggests that any attempt to cut subsidies needs to be accompanied by a public-education campaign to explain the costs and inequities of subsidies, to have a clear timetable for gradual price increases and to be supported by targeted transfers to counter the effect of higher fuel prices on poorer people.
然而改革中的政治博弈极其困难。政治家不愿对抗城市精英，内部人士常常（通过腐败）从便宜的燃料中得到好处，普通市民则不相信他们能拿到补贴。面临着日益增多的反抗声音和全球油价的上涨，很多之前削减补贴的尝试都被搁置了。经验表明，任何试图削减补贴的尝试都需要相应的配套措施：介绍成本与补贴不平等的公共教育、有关价格逐渐上涨的时间表、有指向的转移支撑以平息高燃料价格对穷人造成的影响。

Even with better politics and the best-laid plans, it would be a mistake to expect too much too fast. Entrenched subsidies anywhere are devilishly difficult to get rid of. If the oil price rises, so too will the pressure on emerging economies to “protect” their citizens from dearer fuel. But, for the moment, there seems to be a chance to accelerate reform. It is an opportunity not to be missed.
尽管有着更好的政治氛围和最好的计划，预期太多太快都是错误的。在任何地方，根深蒂固的补贴都是很难摆脱的。如果油价上涨，那么新兴经济体“保护”市民不受更贵燃料影响的压力就会上涨。但是，目前来看，加快改革似乎是有机会的，这一机会不可错失。