经济学人下载:塞尔维亚的外交政策 分裂的忠诚

Serbia's foreign policy
塞尔维亚的外交政策

Divided loyalties
分裂的忠诚

Serbia is torn between its old ally, Russia, and the European Union
塞尔维亚在欧盟和俄罗斯两位老盟友间举棋不定，不知何去何从

A NICE summing-up of Serbia's foreign-policy dilemmas was shown in a recent drawing by Corax, the country's leading political cartoonist. Aleksandar Vucic, Serbia's prime minister, is shown playing two pianos at once, with Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, conducting on one side, and Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, conducting on the other. The Serbian government is finding the Ukraine crisis is only adding to the political cacophony.
近期，塞尔维亚首席政治漫画家科拉克斯发布了一组全新的关于塞尔维亚外交窘境的漫画。塞尔维亚总理亚历山大·希奇一直在德国总理安格尔·默克尔和俄罗斯总统弗拉德·普京之间打着不算优雅的“太极拳”。并且，塞尔维亚政府发现，乌克兰危机非但不是一个缓和点，反而让形势变得更加扑朔迷离。

In March Serbia abstained in a UN vote reaffirming the territorial integrity of Ukraine after Russia's annexation of Crimea. As a candidate for European Union membership, it was heavily criticised for this by its partners. Officially the reason was that Serbia had only a caretaker government. But the real reason was that it did not want to annoy its traditional ally, Russia.
今天三月俄罗斯吞并克里米亚之后，在欧盟关于重新划分乌克兰边界线的会议上，塞政府投了弃权票。作为申请成为欧盟成员的候选人，它的这一行为引起它的同伴们的强烈批判。官方理由说塞尔维亚政府只是临时过渡政府。但实际原因则是它不愿意因此得罪自己的传统盟友—俄罗斯。

Since then Serbia has desperately tried to please both sides. Now its government is clear that, just as Kosovo should be part of Serbia, so Crimea should be part of Ukraine. But much of the press and many Russophile Serbs disagree. A website with contacts for those who want to fight with pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine says that the “liberation” of Kosovo is not possible without the liberation of Novorossiya, as the rebels call their territory.
从那以后，塞政府不得不绝望地开始两边讨好。现在他们的政府清楚地意识到，就如科索沃是塞尔维亚不可分割的一部分一样，克里米亚也应该是乌克兰的领土。但是媒体界的很多人和一些亲俄派塞尔维亚人并不这样认为。某网站试图与乌克兰东部那些亲俄反政府势力保持联系，他们声称“解放”科索沃就像解放新罗希克斯一样不可能。

The number of Serbs fighting in Ukraine may be no more than 100, but their alleged exploits are widely reported. Mr Vucic calls them mercenaries who are “harmful” to Serbia. Legislation is being drawn up making it illegal to fight in foreign wars. That would also cover Serbian citizens who are ethnic Albanians or Bosniaks and have become jihadists in Syria and Iraq. Yet Serbian soldiers still train with both Russian and NATO troops (Serbia is in NATO's “partnership for peace”, but is not a candidate for membership).
事实上真正参与了乌克兰冲突的塞尔维亚人可能不到100人，但他们对冲突的影响却被大大扩散了。希奇声称那些雇佣军已经“损害了”塞尔维亚的利益。立法机构也正在立法让参与境外战争变成非法行为。这一法例涵盖了所有塞尔维亚人，包括那些阿尔巴尼亚人和波什尼亚人以及正在叙利亚和伊拉克参与“伊斯兰圣战”的人。然而，塞尔维亚士兵依然同时和俄罗斯以及北约军队一起训练。

Candidates to join the EU are supposed to align their foreign policy with it. Thus Montenegro has imposed sanctions on Russia. But Serbia has refused to do so: it would cause enormous damage, growls Russia's ambassador in Belgrade. Now Brussels is telling the Serbian government it must not profit from Russia's ban on imports of certain agricultural and dairy products from the EU. Croatian companies hit by the ban are reportedly investigating if they can relabel their products as Serbian.
如果塞尔维亚希望加入欧盟，那么它必须调整自己的外交政策，使其与之一致。因此，黑山共和国已经开始对俄罗斯进行制裁措施。但是塞尔维亚拒绝这样做—极有可能是因为俄罗斯大使在贝尔格莱德威胁称那将带来毁灭性的的灾难。现在欧盟明确告知塞政府，他们必然不能从禁止俄罗斯进口欧盟农业产品以及日常用品的禁令中获益。该禁令的受害者—克罗地亚的一些公司据说正在进行调查，看能否像塞尔维亚那样对商品进行二次贴商标。

Energy is another source of tension. For years the prospect of South Stream, a pipeline to export Russian gas that would pass through Serbia, has shimmered like a mirage ahead. It would bring jobs and cash as well as gas to parts of the country that need them. Now it is unclear if it will ever happen. Under pressure from the European Commission, the Bulgarian government has just suspended its part of the project.
能源是加剧紧张气氛的另一要素。南溪计划经过多年勘探，一条用于出口俄罗斯天然气的输油管道会通过塞尔维亚境内，而现在看来这条管道莫过于海市蜃楼一般虚无缥缈。如果这条管道建成，必将给塞尔维亚带来同天然气一样重要的工作机会和金钱。但现在，这个项目能否实现已经画上了问号。保加利亚政府因为欧盟议会的重压，已经宣布暂停该计划。

If EU leaders are irritated by Serbia, so are the Russians. Russia's Gazprom Neft has a 51% stake in NIS, Serbia's main oil company. On August 11th it was revealed that the police were investigating the 2008 privatisation of NIS. Mr Vucic has implied that the Russians understand that this is domestic political score-settling. Yet the Russians are clearly furious. They were said to have got fantastic terms for the deal after siding with Serbia over Kosovo.
如果说，欧盟已经对塞尔维亚忍无可忍，俄罗斯也是这样。俄罗斯天然气工业股份有限公司持有塞尔维亚主要石油公司NIS 51%的股份。8月11日，有报道含蓄地指出警方正在调查NIS公司2008年私有化事件。希奇宣称俄方已经理解该事件是塞尔维亚的家务事。然而，很明显俄罗斯已经极度暴怒了。自从他们在科索沃问题上支持塞尔维亚政府之后，他们一直在这项交易中占据极为有利的位置。

Mr Vucic will go on trying to satisfy both conductors. As long as he causes no problems in Kosovo, says Dimitar Bechev of the London School of Economics, the West will forgive him. He adds that it is hard to be tough on Serbia for selling Russia raspberries when France is selling it warships. Yet Serbia must eventually lean the EU's way to protect its candidacy.
伦敦经济学院的达米塔·贝什表示，只要科索沃地区不出差池，希奇必将继续尝试同时讨好双方，同时，西方也将原谅他。他还表示，在塞尔维亚，人们很难在法国正在推销他的军舰时叫卖来自俄罗斯的木梅。然而，塞尔维亚人为了保住候选人的位置，最终必将倾向欧盟。

Meanwhile in Kosovo, whose security is provided by a NATO-led force, most of Ukraine's 160 troops are pulling out. They have more urgent business than helping to protect Kosovo's Serbs.
同时，在由北约军队担任安防事务的科索沃地区，来自乌克兰的160人大多数已经离开。相比保护科索沃的塞尔维亚人，他们现在有更急切的任务。