经济学人下载:埃博拉病毒 防控刻不容缓

Ebola
埃博拉病毒

Chasing a rolling snowball
“雪球”越滚越大，防控刻不容缓

The world is still acting too slowly to stop Ebola
世界范围内阻止埃博拉病毒扩散的行动速度过慢

FOR months the world has sat largely idle as an Ebola epidemic has marched steadily from the remote jungles of Guinea to the slums of Liberia, and beyond. On September 16th that changed. Barack Obama announced the largest humanitarian deployment by America's armed forces to fight an infectious disease. Saying that the epidemic “is not just a threat to regional security—it's a potential threat to global security if these countries break down”, the president began the process of sending some 3,000 American troops to set up treatment centres with 1,700 beds and to train local health workers.
在过去的几个月里，埃博拉病毒从几内亚偏远的热带雨林扩散到了利比里亚的贫民窟甚至更远的地方，然而全世界对此却无动于衷，直到9月16日开始有所改变了。奥巴马总统进行了最大的人道主义救助部署，美国军队将会向这一传染性疾病宣战。他表示“这不仅仅是对地区安全的威胁，如果这些感染病毒的国家被拖垮的话，这将正为对全球安全的潜在威胁”3000名美国士兵已经被派遣到当地建立治疗中心，该中心有1700个床位，当地的卫生工作者也将受到训练。

The dispatch of troops to west Africa may seem an odd priority when American forces are preparing to confront jihadists in Iraq and Syria and are stretched thin elsewhere. Ebola is a disease that is usually absent from human populations, has been quickly stamped out in the past and in its worst recorded outbreak has thus far caused 3,000 known deaths (seearticle). Moreover it is unlikely to spread widely in rich countries with good health-care systems. Set against killers such as HIV, the virus that kills some 1.6m people a year, or tuberculosis (TB), which takes another 1.3m lives, an expensive fight against Ebola may seem a misallocation of resources.
将美国军队派遣到西非可能会看上去是一个奇怪的举动，因为这时美国的军队大多在备战伊拉克和叙利亚的圣战，其他地区的部队为数不多。埃博拉病毒通常不会在人类中传播扩散，过去的历史记录中，它通常很快会不见踪影，而最严重的爆发情况是造成了3000人死亡的记录。并且这一病毒在医疗条件较好的富裕国家并不会大面积传播。与此形成对比的是，像艾滋病这样的病毒每年致死的人数多达160万人，肺结核病毒的致死人数也多达130万人。如果在对待埃博拉病毒上耗费巨资的话可能是对资源的误用。

Yet Ebola is now growing exponentially, with the number of new cases roughly doubling every three weeks or so. In Monrovia, the capital of Liberia, it is thought to be doubling every two weeks. Previous outbreaks were usually in rural villages where it was easier to contain. At this rate of progress, small numbers quickly become big ones, and there is a real risk of the disease spreading to cities such as Lagos, which is home to more than 10m people. The longer Ebola is allowed to replicate in humans, the greater the risk that it will become more contagious. Some virologists fret that it might even acquire the ability to be transmitted through the air by coughs and sneezes. Although this seems unlikely, nobody wants to find out just how quickly Ebola can adapt to humans.
然而，现在埃博拉病毒却在成几何级数扩散，新发现的病例每三周将会翻一番。在利比里亚的首都蒙罗维拉，新病例每两周就翻一番。之前病毒的爆发地通常是偏远村落，那里比较好控制。按照这种发展趋势，感染人数很快就会由小变大，那么如果这一病毒扩散到像拉各斯这样的大城市的话，那么将构成真正意义上的威胁，因为那里居住了超过1千万人。埃博拉在人类身上复制传播的时间越长，那么它变得更具传染性的风险就越大。一些病毒学家甚至担心它会变成可以通过空气和唾液传播的病毒。尽管这似乎不太可能，但是没人愿意等着看埃博拉病毒多久能适应人类受体。

America's response is the first by a government on a large scale. Until now the burden has been carried by charities such as Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), which has 2,000 staff in the affected countries. Yet even America's large commitment may not be enough to get ahead of this epidemic in Liberia, the country most affected. By the time the troops actually get there, the situation in Liberia could be far worse.
在政府层面对此作出大规模反应的，美国是第一个。目前为止担负最多责任的是像MSF这样的慈善机构。该机构已有2000名员工在病毒感染国工作。尽管美国的决心很大，但是还不足以处理埃博拉病毒在利比里亚这个最大感染国的肆虐。等到军队过去的时候，情况可能要比现在糟糕的多。

Gloves and masks needed
急需手套和口罩

Elsewhere, the response falls far short of what is needed. Sierra Leone, the second-worst-affected country, has received far less help from governments: China is sending 174 people and mobile laboratory teams, Cuba is sending a similar number and Britain will set up a hospital with 62 beds. France is sending 20 people to the region.
在其它地区应对措施远远不足。塞拉利昂这个第二大感染国接受到的政府援助少得可怜：中国派出了174人以及一支流动实验队，古巴也正在派遣差不多的人员，英国将建立一所有62个床位的医院。法国也正在派遣20名人员到该国。

Two things are urgently needed. The first is the rapid provision of basic protective gear such as gloves, gowns, surgical masks and disinfectant. Domestic health systems in affected countries have crumbled as nurses and doctors have fallen ill or died for lack of basic gear.
目前迫切需要做两件事情。首先是迅速提供基本的防护装备，如手套、隔离衣、口罩、消毒液。 感染国国内医疗系统已经崩溃，因为护士和医生由于缺乏基本的装备而病倒或者死亡。

The second need is for trained staff to run the treatment centres and work in them. Poorly run ones with weak infection controls may hasten the spread of the disease. Both are needed soon, as the cost of halting Ebola's spread is also rising exponentially. In August the World Health Organisation estimated that it would take nine months and cost $490m to contain Ebola. Now it reckons the cost has risen to over $1 billion. The longer the world prevaricates, the harder and costlier it will be to contain this outbreak.
第二件事是需要受训人员来管理治疗中心并开始工作。管理不善以及不到位的感染防控可能加剧疾病的传播。这两件事都亟待解决，并阻止埃博拉病毒的几何级数增长。今年八月，据世界卫生组织估计，需要用9个月花费4.9亿美元的资金才能控制在埃博拉病毒。先在估计这一金额将升至10亿美元。全世界对此观望的时间越长，那么想要控制疫情将耗费更多的人力物力。